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Why PAG Stock slipped -0.10% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$212.12 -0.10% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $211.68

Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $13.93B
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is PAG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Penske Automotive Group Inc. (NYSE: PAG) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $212.12 (-0.10% 1D, market cap $13.93B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, PAG ranks #361 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does PAG compare to MUSA and KMX in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations), PAG carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.9x, gross margin of 16.4%, and ROIC of 13.8%. By comparison, MUSA (Murphy USA Inc.) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 21.1x, ROIC 24.5%, cap $9.83B) and KMX (CarMax Inc) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 32.3x, ROIC 1.7%, cap $7.89B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PAG leads on earnings multiple (14.9x) while MUSA leads on capital efficiency (24.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PAG?
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Per PAG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001019849), Penske Automotive Group Inc. generated $31.81B in revenue (-0.2% YoY), $935.4M in net income, and -$456.3M in free cash flow against $17.60B in total assets and $1.81B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $211.67 (-0.21%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510058
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk D+
Cash (10)Whales (16)SEC (14)Macro (8)CEO (10)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target
$250 Bull$212 Base$165 Bear
📬 FREE PAG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PAG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±1.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY PAG SCORES 58/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (28% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±1.8% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.20 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (58.2) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
50
Grade C-$194.79+8.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
53
Grade C-$212.05+0% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
55
Grade C$211.95+0.1% Next Q
Current
58
Grade D+$212.12+0% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (50) → D+ (58)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PAG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, PAG faces multiple-compression risk if 14.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($210.14) or 200D SMA ($183.47) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($212.12) toward Bear Floor ($165.45).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PAG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “PAG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why PAG Stock slipped -0.10% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) slipped -0.10% to $212.12, trading at 83% of its 52-week range ($140.12 – $227). Stretched risk/reward at 15x P/E (14% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 83% of its 52-week range ($140.12 – $227) with RSI-14 at 58.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±1.8% around $212.12 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 16.4% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live PAG Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring PAG)

  • ✓Walkthrough of PAG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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PAG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +28.63%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $212.3H $212.3L $212.1C $212.1VOL 405.1K
RES: $211.8SUP: $198.4SMA50: $210.1SMA200: $183.5
$232.1$211.0$189.8$168.7$147.6RES $211.8SUP $198.4$212.12026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PAG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
7.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -0.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PAG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PAG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PAG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PAG)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #361 of 1009 ⚔️ MUSA vs PAG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (PAG vs. MUSA, KMX, CASY, CPRT)

Industry: Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations (20 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) ranks #361 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #131 by equity capitalization ($13.93B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PAG leads on earnings valuation at 14.9x trailing P/E, while MUSA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.5% ROIC and — gross margin. MUSA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with PAG at 58/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
PAG ACTIVE
Penske Automotive Group Inc.
D+ 58/100 14.9x 16.4% 13.8% -0.10% $13.93B Benchmark Subject
MUSA
Murphy USA Inc.
B 74/100 21.1x — 24.5% -0.93% $9.83B /musa-vs-pag →
KMX
CarMax Inc
D+ 54/100 32.3x 10.8% 1.7% -1.05% $7.89B /kmx-vs-pag →
CASY
Casey's General Stores Inc.
C+ 66/100 35.1x — 12.0% +0.46% $25.14B /casy-vs-pag →
CPRT
Copart Inc.
B- 71/100 17.6x — 15.1% +1.96% $27.91B /cprt-vs-pag →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001019849 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) reported GAAP revenue of $31.81B (-0.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $31.86B , and +2.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $935.4M, operating cash flow of $975.1M, and free cash flow of -$456.3M (-124.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, PAG closed FY2025 with $17.60B in total assets against $1.81B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.20, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $31.81B $935.4M $975.1M -$456.3M $17.60B $1.81B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $31.86B $968.9M $1.23B -$203.3M $17.12B $1.13B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $30.92B $1.11B $1.15B -$246.0M $37.10B $8.68B

3. PAG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PAG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Penske Automotive Group Inc. (NYSE: PAG) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $212.12 (-0.10% 1D, market cap $13.93B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, PAG ranks #361 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PAG compare to MUSA and KMX in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations), PAG carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.9x, gross margin of 16.4%, and ROIC of 13.8%. By comparison, MUSA (Murphy USA Inc.) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 21.1x, ROIC 24.5%, cap $9.83B) and KMX (CarMax Inc) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 32.3x, ROIC 1.7%, cap $7.89B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PAG leads on earnings multiple (14.9x) while MUSA leads on capital efficiency (24.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PAG?

Per PAG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001019849), Penske Automotive Group Inc. generated $31.81B in revenue (-0.2% YoY), $935.4M in net income, and -$456.3M in free cash flow against $17.60B in total assets and $1.81B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PAG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PAG last traded at $212.12 (-0.10% on volume of 405,050 shares), positioning the stock +0.94% above its 50-day simple moving average ($210.14) and +15.62% above its 200-day simple moving average ($183.47). Across its 52-week range of $140.12 to $227.00, PAG sits at the 82.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($208.30 to $215.94).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 58/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

PAG — Penske Automotive Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 58/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $212.12 (-0.10% 1D, market capitalization $13.93B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 13.8%, gross margin of 16.4%, operating margin of 4.0%, and free cash flow yield of -3.27%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (16/20) + Insider Conviction (10/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.06x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.20, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.33x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Penske Automotive Group Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations industry. The profile describes the company as operating in this industry with a market capitalization of $13.9B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) reported $31.81B in annual revenue (up from $31.86B in FY2024, -0.2% YoY) and $935.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($30.92B revenue, $1.11B net income) through FY2025, PAG scaled operating cash flow to $975.1M and free cash flow to -$456.3M, backed by $17.60B in total assets against $1.81B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 58/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of -3.27% and institutional whale pillar of 16/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 16/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $140.12 – $227.00 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 14.9x trailing P/E and 6.3x EV/EBITDA against 4.0% operating margins and a 1.06x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations (Consumer Discretionary), PAG carries a macro regime beta of 1.06 and gross margin of 16.4%.

  • Key Question #1: Can PAG sustain or expand its 4.0% operating margin and 13.8% ROIC against Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $31.81B and free cash flow of -$456.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.81B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is PAG's 13.9x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.06x)?

PAG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to PAG Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

PAG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $212.12?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON PAG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on PAG:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $275.76 (+30.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

A reported go-private agreement at $212/share and a 13.8% ROIC give the stock a clear value-realization catalyst.

Here is why I am bullish on PAG here at $212.12: A reported go-private agreement at $212/share and a 13.8% ROIC give the stock a clear value-realization catalyst.. Compare PAG's 4.0% operating margin and 13.8% ROIC against the rest of Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $201.51 are getting bought.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — PAG's 14/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $171.82 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $212.12

Negative free-cash-flow yield of -3.27% and a D+ RQD grade indicate weak cash generation despite positive net income.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short PAG above $212.12. Negative free-cash-flow yield of -3.27% and a D+ RQD grade indicate weak cash generation despite positive net income.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20) and FCF yield (-3.27%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $227.00.

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