Stock Ratings / Industrials / ORN / earnings

LEGO (53) XTND (46) PKE (60) CDNL (41) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common (ORN) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

$8.42 -7.57% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.29

Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common (ORN) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 36/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $342.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ORN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ORN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common (NYSE: ORN) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $8.42 (-7.57% 1D, market cap $342.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, ORN ranks #364 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ORN compare to LEGO and XTND in the Industrials sector?

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Within the Industrials sector (Military/Government/Technical), ORN carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 148.9x, gross margin of 12.4%, and ROIC of 7.1%. By comparison, LEGO (Legato Merger Corp. IV) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $302.8M) and XTND (Xtend AI Robotics Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $438.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CDNL leads on earnings multiple (33.7x) while CDNL leads on capital efficiency (54.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ORN?

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Per ORN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001402829), Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common generated $852.3M in revenue (+7.0% YoY), $2.5M in net income, and -$10.8M in free cash flow against $414.7M in total assets and $6.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.29 (-1.55%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ORN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (36/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ORN SCORES 36/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (44% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.05 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+6/20 pts (17% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 12.4% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (45.4) create a -16 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$9.15-4.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$8.70+5.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$9.15-8% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$8.42-8.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (44) → D- (36)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ORN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ORN currently carries a cautious 36/100 (D-) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($8.97) and Max Pain ($8.84) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $18.27.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ORN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ORN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 36%NO 64%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$1.05 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

ORN Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 36/100

Trailing EPS: $0.06 • YoY Revenue Growth: 7%

Model Bullish Setup (36/100)Model Risk Weight (64/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$852.3M	$2.5M	-$10.8M	12.4%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$796.4M	-$1.6M	-$1.4M	11.4%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$711.8M	-$17.9M	$17.2M	12.4%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ORN)

✓Walkthrough of ORN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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ORN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -42.41%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-03O $9.11H $9.11L $8.42C $8.42VOL 691.9K

RES: $9.61SUP: $8.08SMA50: $8.97SMA200: $11.81

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ORN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ORN Butterfly Map → + Track ORN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ORN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ORN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ORN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ORN)

Industrials Rank #364 of 485 ⚔️ LEGO vs ORN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (ORN vs. LEGO, XTND, PKE, CDNL)

Industry: Military/Government/Technical (43 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common (ORN) ranks #364 by composite RQD confidence (36/100, grade D-) and #316 by equity capitalization ($342.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CDNL leads on earnings valuation at 33.7x trailing P/E, while CDNL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 54.6% ROIC and — gross margin. PKE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 60/100 (C-) compared with ORN at 36/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ORN ACTIVE Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common	D-	36/100	148.9x	12.4%	7.1%	-7.57%	$342.4M	Benchmark Subject
LEGO Legato Merger Corp. IV	D+	53/100	—	—	—	0.00%	$302.8M	/lego-vs-orn →
XTND Xtend AI Robotics Inc.	D	46/100	—	—	—	-7.78%	$438.7M	/xtnd-vs-orn →
PKE Park Aerospace Corp.	C-	60/100	—	30.9%	19.0%	-2.98%	$567.5M	/pke-vs-orn →
CDNL Cardinal Infrastructure Group Inc. (Class A)	D-	41/100	33.7x	—	54.6%	-3.42%	$739.3M	/cdnl-vs-orn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001402829

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common (ORN) reported GAAP revenue of $852.3M (+7.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $796.4M , and +19.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $2.5M, operating cash flow of $28.1M, and free cash flow of -$10.8M (-663.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, ORN closed FY2025 with $414.7M in total assets against $6.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.05, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$852.3M	$2.5M	$28.1M	-$10.8M	$414.7M	$6.1M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$796.4M	-$1.6M	$12.7M	-$1.4M	$417.3M	$22.8M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$711.8M	-$17.9M	$17.2M	$17.2M	—	—

3. ORN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ORN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ORN compare to LEGO and XTND in the Industrials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ORN?

Where is ORN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ORN last traded at $8.42 (-7.57% on volume of 691,888 shares), positioning the stock -6.13% below its 50-day simple moving average ($8.97) and -28.70% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.81). Across its 52-week range of $8.10 to $17.40, ORN sits at the 3.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($7.37 to $9.47).

ORN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is ORN's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common (ORN)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is ORN stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12.5% event move for ORN, spanning a range between $7.37 and $9.47.

Direct Sub-Reports: ORN RQD Cockpit ORN 12M Forecast ORN Earnings & Move ORN Dividends & DRIP ORN Insiders & 13F ORN Whale Options ORN Profit Sankey ORN News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 36/100 (D-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ORN — Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:37:35Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ORN scores 38 out of 100 with a letter grade of D-, labeled "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." The five pillars are:

Fundamental Cash Engine: 6 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects ROIC of 7.1% and FCF yield of -2.91%. For an investor, the weak score means the company is not currently converting capital into free cash flow, so near-term valuation support must come from earnings growth rather than cash generation.
Whale 13F Flow: 6 / 20. Per the RQD rating, the score reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. The low score indicates limited evidence of sustained institutional conviction.
Insider Conviction: 5 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. A low score indicates insider activity is not providing a confirming signal.
Macro Regime Fit: 5 / 20. Per the RQD rating, beta is 1.0 and sector sensitivity is weighted here. A beta of 1.0 means the stock is expected to move in line with the broader market, and the low score suggests the regime is not favorable for this profile.
Forensic Balance Sheet: 16 / 20. Per the RQD rating, Altman Z is 3.05, Piotroski F is 7/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.04. This is the strongest pillar and the main reason the company is not scored lower. A prospective investor should recognize that balance sheet strength limits downside risk from insolvency but does not address weak cash generation or the valuation tradeoff.

Valuation tradeoff: per the market data, the stock trades at a P/E (TTM) of 148.9 on EPS (TTM) of 0.06, with an EV/EBITDA of 7.9. The elevated P/E relative to thin earnings means price is highly sensitive to earnings changes. Upside drivers would need to come from sustained margin improvement and cash conversion, which the RQD pillars currently do not confirm.

Snapshot

Price	Market Cap	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	EV/EBITDA	EPS (TTM)	Dividend Yield	Beta	52-Wk Range	ROIC %
$9.11	$370.4M	148.9	138.5	7.9	0.06	0%	1.0	$8.1 - $17.4	7.1%

Business

ORN is classified in the Industrials sector, Military/Government/Technical industry, and trades on the NYSE. Per the company profile, it is a NYSE-listed issuer with a market capitalization of $0.4B. Not available in source data: specific products, customer base, and revenue model details beyond the sector and industry classification.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$852.3M	$14.6M	$2.5M	N/A	$-10.8M	$1.6M	$6.1M
FY 2024	$796.4M	$11.5M	$-1.6M	N/A	$-1.4M	$28.3M	$22.8M
FY 2023	$711.8M	$-6.6M	$-17.9M	N/A	$17.2M	N/A	N/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue grew from $711.8M (FY 2023) to $852.3M (FY 2025), while operating income moved from $-6.6M to $14.6M. Per the market data, gross margin is 12.4%, operating margin 1.7%, and net margin 0.3%, with ROIC at 7.1%. Per the RQD forensic pillar, Altman Z-Score is 3.05 and Piotroski F-Score is 7/9. Per the financials, cash fell from $28.3M to $1.6M and debt fell from $22.8M to $6.1M over FY 2024–FY 2025, while FCF was negative in both of those years.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts section, the single item is a Stock Titan report with the headline "Revenue rises 14% at Orion Group Holdings (ORN), but nine-month operations consume cash." It is flagged YELLOW with the impact label MARKET WIRE. The catalyst reinforces the pattern in the financials: top-line growth alongside cash consumption. Risk watch item: operating cash burn despite revenue growth. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no proprietary signals are present.

Open Questions

What is the composition of the 14% revenue growth referenced in the news wire, and is it sustainable?
What drove the negative FCF in FY 2025 and what is the expected cash conversion path?
What explains the gap between FY 2025 net income of $2.5M and the 148.9 P/E on EPS of 0.06?
What are the specific customers and contracts underlying the Military/Government/Technical classification?
Are there any reported insider or institutional transactions that would clarify flow signals?

ORN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common (ORN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ORN Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 16h ago

Revenue rises 14% at Orion Group Holdings (ORN), but nine-month operations consume cash.

Stock Titan report covering Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common (ORN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 4d ago

Orion Group Holdings (ORN) Stock Price Jumps As Q3 Earnings Revive Profit Debate

Orion Group Holdings came into this Q3 2026 report with a reputation as a high multiples contractor priced for perfection, trading on a trailing P/E of 64.1x and carrying a mixed margin record. The stock jumped 9.8% to U

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 4d ago

Orion Group Holdings Announces New Contract Awards of $250 Million

$115 Million Mission-Critical Project Marks Largest Concrete Award in Company HistoryHOUSTON, Oct. 29, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ORN) (“Orion” or the “Company”), a leading specialty constr

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Benzinga • 4d ago

Orion Group Announces $250M In October Contract Awards And Change Orders

Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ORN) ("Orion" or the "Company"), a leading specialty construction company, today announced new contract awards and change orders totaling $250 million in the month of

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE SeekingAlpha • 5d ago

Orion Group Holdings, Inc. 2026 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation

2026-10-29. The following slide deck was published by Orion Group Holdings, Inc.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 5d ago

Orion Group (ORN) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Revenue hit $256.2 million with 37% EBITDA growth as backlog reached $645 million.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Fintel • 5d ago

Orion Group Holdings, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 5d ago

What Orion Group (ORN) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call

Orion Group (NYSE:ORN) reported higher third-quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA, citing active projects, strong equipment utilization, favorable operating conditions and execution across its marine and concrete operatio

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ORN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $8.42?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ORN 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.02 (-12.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is ORN (D- • RQD 38/100) a Buy at $9.11?

Welcome to the ORN (Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 38/100 (Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow) in Military/Government/Technical. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (148.9x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $7.38 (-19.0%)

Spot @ $9.11

Pump the brakes on ORN — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on ORN, but look at what you are paying: 148.9x trailing P/E with 12.4% gross margins. Unless Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

TA TapeReader_Pro Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $11.11 (+22.0%)

Spot @ $9.11

ORN cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on ORN, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Military/Government/Technical and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $9.11 (52-wk range $8.10 - $17.40), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.