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Stock Ratings / Financials / ONIT / earnings
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Onity Group Inc. (ONIT) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±10.4% Move

$28.97 +5.27% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.19

Onity Group Inc. (ONIT) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 40/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $229.9M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ONIT Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ONIT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Onity Group Inc. (NYSE: ONIT) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $28.97 (+5.27% 1D, market cap $229.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ONIT ranks #918 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ONIT compare to USDE and MFIN in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), ONIT carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 30.2%. By comparison, USDE (StablecoinX Inc. (Class A)) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $229.2M) and MFIN (Medallion Financial Corp.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 6.2x, ROIC 10.5%, cap $231.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MFIN leads on earnings multiple (6.2x) while ONIT leads on capital efficiency (30.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ONIT?
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Per ONIT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000873860), Onity Group Inc. generated $1.07B in revenue (+9.3% YoY), $189.5M in net income, and -$750.9M in free cash flow against $16.17B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.19 (+0.76%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510040
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D-
Cash (9)Whales (5)SEC (10)Macro (6)CEO (10)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.1% Base Target
$57 Bull$27 Base$21 Bear
📬 FREE ONIT RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ONIT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (40/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ONIT SCORES 40/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+10/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 50% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
32
Grade E$26.83-3.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
35
Grade E$25.84+1.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
37
Grade E$26.19+10.6% Next Q
Current
40
Grade D-$28.97-7.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (32) → D- (40)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ONIT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ONIT currently carries a cautious 40/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($30.07) and Max Pain ($30.42) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $56.81.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ONIT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ONIT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 40%NO 60%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±10.4% Swing Band

±$3.01 Expected Swing
$25.96 (-10.4%)Spot $28.97$31.98 (+10.4%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

ONIT Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 40/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 9.3%

Model Bullish Setup (40/100)Model Risk Weight (60/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$1.07B$189.5M-$750.9M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$976.0M$33.9M-$574.6M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$1.07B-$63.7M$10.4M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ONIT)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ONIT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ONIT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -38.74%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $27.76H $28.97L $27.52C $28.97VOL 70.9K
RES: $50.36SUP: $23.67SMA50: $30.07SMA200: $37.68
$50.04$43.21$36.39$29.57$22.74RES $50.36SUP $23.67$28.972026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ONIT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ONIT Butterfly Map → + Track ONIT →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +9.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ONIT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ONIT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ONIT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ONIT)

Financials Rank #918 of 1097 ⚔️ USDE vs ONIT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ONIT vs. USDE, MFIN, DGXX, SVIA)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Onity Group Inc. (ONIT) ranks #918 by composite RQD confidence (40/100, grade D-) and #857 by equity capitalization ($229.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MFIN leads on earnings valuation at 6.2x trailing P/E, while ONIT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 30.2% ROIC and — gross margin. USDE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 52/100 (D+) compared with ONIT at 40/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ONIT ACTIVE
Onity Group Inc.
D- 40/100 — — 30.2% +5.27% $229.9M Benchmark Subject
USDE
StablecoinX Inc. (Class A)
D+ 52/100 — — — -9.25% $229.2M /usde-vs-onit →
MFIN
Medallion Financial Corp.
D+ 52/100 6.2x — 10.5% -0.79% $231.9M /mfin-vs-onit →
DGXX
Digi Power X Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares
E 19/100 — — -23.0% -4.28% $225.1M /dgxx-vs-onit →
SVIA
Silvia Inc.
D 50/100 — — — +5.10% $238.2M /svia-vs-onit →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000873860 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Onity Group Inc. (ONIT) reported GAAP revenue of $1.07B (+9.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $976.0M , and 0.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $189.5M, operating cash flow of -$748.0M, and free cash flow of -$750.9M (-30.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, ONIT closed FY2025 with $16.17B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.07B $189.5M -$748.0M -$750.9M $16.17B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $976.0M $33.9M -$573.8M -$574.6M $16.44B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.07B -$63.7M $10.4M $10.4M — —

3. ONIT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ONIT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Onity Group Inc. (NYSE: ONIT) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $28.97 (+5.27% 1D, market cap $229.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ONIT ranks #918 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ONIT compare to USDE and MFIN in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), ONIT carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 30.2%. By comparison, USDE (StablecoinX Inc. (Class A)) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $229.2M) and MFIN (Medallion Financial Corp.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 6.2x, ROIC 10.5%, cap $231.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MFIN leads on earnings multiple (6.2x) while ONIT leads on capital efficiency (30.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ONIT?

Per ONIT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000873860), Onity Group Inc. generated $1.07B in revenue (+9.3% YoY), $189.5M in net income, and -$750.9M in free cash flow against $16.17B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ONIT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ONIT last traded at $28.97 (+5.27% on volume of 63,830 shares), positioning the stock -3.66% below its 50-day simple moving average ($30.07) and -23.12% below its 200-day simple moving average ($37.68). Across its 52-week range of $24.86 to $54.10, ONIT sits at the 14.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.4% ($25.96 to $31.98).

Direct Sub-Reports: ONIT RQD Cockpit ONIT 12M Forecast ONIT Earnings & Move ONIT Dividends & DRIP ONIT Insiders & 13F ONIT Whale Options ONIT Profit Sankey ONIT News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 40/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ONIT — Onity Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Onity Group Inc. (ONIT) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 40/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $28.97 (+5.27% 1D, market capitalization $229.9M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 30.2%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (10/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Onity Group Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Financials sector and the Finance: Consumer Services industry. The profile reports a market capitalization of $0.2B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Onity Group Inc. (ONIT) reported $1.07B in annual revenue (up from $976.0M in FY2024, +9.3% YoY) and $189.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.07B revenue, -$63.7M net income) through FY2025, ONIT scaled operating cash flow to -$748.0M and free cash flow to -$750.9M, backed by $16.17B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 40/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $24.86 – $54.10 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

No upstream or downstream dependencies, butterfly links, or proprietary signals are recorded. Second-order bottlenecks cannot be identified from the provided sources. The regulatory item on New York mortgage servicing fees, noted in the news section, is the only sector-adjacent catalyst referenced, and its transmission to revenue is not quantified in source data.

  • Key Question #1: Can ONIT sustain or expand its — operating margin and 30.2% ROIC against Finance: Consumer Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.07B and free cash flow of -$750.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ONIT's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ONIT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Onity Group Inc. (ONIT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ONIT Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ONIT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $28.97?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ONIT 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ONIT:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $36.33 (+32.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

ROIC of 30.2% and reported net income rising from $33.9M in FY 2024 to $189.5M in FY 2025 signal strong return on capital.

Long ONIT at $27.52 targeting $36.33. ROIC of 30.2% and reported net income rising from $33.9M in FY 2024 to $189.5M in FY 2025 signal strong return on capital.. Institutional whale score is 5/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $24.86 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Shorting a 5/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $27.52 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $20.64 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $27.52

Free cash flow was negative at -$750.9M in FY 2025 and -$574.6M in FY 2024, and the RQD cash-engine pillar scores 9/20 with a 0% FCF yi

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on ONIT: Free cash flow was negative at -$750.9M in FY 2025 and -$574.6M in FY 2024, and the RQD cash-engine pillar scores 9/20 with a 0% FCF yield.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Finance: Consumer Services triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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