What is NXST's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for NXST.

Stock Ratings / Communication Services / NXST / options

VSNT (53) SIRI (68) TME (55) FWONA (63) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Nexstar Media Group Inc. (NXST) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$177.54 +3.56% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $178.34

Nexstar Media Group Inc. (NXST) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $5.28B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NXST stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Nexstar Media Group Inc. (NASDAQ: NXST) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $177.54 (+3.56% 1D, market cap $5.28B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 132 tracked Communication Services issuers, NXST ranks #72 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NXST compare to VSNT and SIRI in the Communication Services sector?

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Within the Communication Services sector (Broadcasting), NXST carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 63.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.4%. By comparison, VSNT (Versant Media Group Inc. (Class A)) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 4.6x, ROIC 9.0%, cap $4.36B) and SIRI (SiriusXM Holdings Inc.) posts a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 6.4%, cap $9.76B). Among the 5-stock peer group, VSNT leads on earnings multiple (4.6x) while TME leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NXST?

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Per NXST's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001142417), Nexstar Media Group Inc. generated $4.95B in revenue (-8.5% YoY), $83.0M in net income, and $743.0M in free cash flow against $10.85B in total assets and $6.22B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Communication Services with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $178.34 (+0.45%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 15% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk E

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NXST)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NXST SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 15% FCF Margin ($743.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+11/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 55% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (58.6) create a -14 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$160.31+2.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$164.83-0.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$164.50+7.9% Next Q

Current

Grade D$177.54-6.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (37) → D (45)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NXST Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NXST currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Communication Services with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($166.96) and Max Pain ($186.42) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $267.02.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NXST• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NXST Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 45%NO 55%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±6%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (NXST)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for NXST.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NXST)

✓Walkthrough of NXST's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

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NXST // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -10.87%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-03O $170.1H $177.5L $170.1C $177.5VOL 278.6K

RES: $183.4SUP: $142.5SMA50: $167.0SMA200: $191.7

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NXST Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NXST Butterfly Map → + Track NXST →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

42.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -8.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NXST today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NXST. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NXST today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NXST)

Communication Services Rank #72 of 132 ⚔️ VSNT vs NXST Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Communication Services Peer Comparison (NXST vs. VSNT, SIRI, TME, FWONA)

Industry: Broadcasting (24 Tracked Issuers)

Across 132 tracked Communication Services securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Nexstar Media Group Inc. (NXST) ranks #72 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #37 by equity capitalization ($5.28B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VSNT leads on earnings valuation at 4.6x trailing P/E, while TME leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.9% ROIC and — gross margin. SIRI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with NXST at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NXST ACTIVE Nexstar Media Group Inc.	D	45/100	63.1x	—	8.4%	+3.56%	$5.28B	Benchmark Subject
VSNT Versant Media Group Inc. (Class A)	D+	53/100	4.6x	—	9.0%	+2.93%	$4.36B	/vsnt-vs-nxst →
SIRI SiriusXM Holdings Inc.	C+	68/100	12.0x	52.4%	6.4%	+1.93%	$9.76B	/siri-vs-nxst →
TME Tencent Music Entertainment Group American	D+	55/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	+5.95%	$13.24B	/tme-vs-nxst →
FWONA Formula One Group (Series A)	C	63/100	41.8x	—	3.9%	+1.90%	$21.34B	/fwona-vs-nxst →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001142417 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Nexstar Media Group Inc. (NXST) reported GAAP revenue of $4.95B (-8.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $5.41B , and +0.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $83.0M, operating cash flow of $891.0M, and free cash flow of $743.0M (-32.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, NXST closed FY2025 with $10.85B in total assets against $6.22B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.61, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$4.95B	$83.0M	$891.0M	$743.0M	$10.85B	$6.22B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$5.41B	$683.0M	$1.25B	$1.10B	$11.47B	$6.40B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$4.93B	$270.0M	$999.0M	$777.0M	$5.92B	$1.39B

3. NXST Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NXST stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does NXST compare to VSNT and SIRI in the Communication Services sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NXST?

Where is NXST trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NXST last traded at $177.54 (+3.56% on volume of 433,161 shares), positioning the stock +6.34% above its 50-day simple moving average ($166.96) and -7.40% below its 200-day simple moving average ($191.72). Across its 52-week range of $153.17 to $254.30, NXST sits at the 24.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.0% ($166.89 to $188.19).

Direct Sub-Reports: NXST RQD Cockpit NXST 12M Forecast NXST Earnings & Move NXST Dividends & DRIP NXST Insiders & 13F NXST Whale Options NXST Profit Sankey NXST News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 45/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

NXST — Nexstar Media Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Nexstar Media Group Inc. (NXST) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 45/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $177.54 (+3.56% 1D, market capitalization $5.28B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 8.4%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 17.2%, and free cash flow yield of 14.18%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (9/20) + Insider Conviction (11/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (6/20): Incorporates a 0.99x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.61, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 3.01x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Nexstar Media Group Inc. (NXST) is a NASDAQ-listed company in the Communication Services sector, Broadcasting industry. The profile describes the company as operating in Broadcasting with a market capitalization of $5.2B. — for detailed product and customer description.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Nexstar Media Group Inc. (NXST) reported $4.95B in annual revenue (up from $5.41B in FY2024, -8.5% YoY) and $83.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($4.93B revenue, $270.0M net income) through FY2025, NXST scaled operating cash flow to $891.0M and free cash flow to $743.0M, backed by $10.85B in total assets against $6.22B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 45/100): Established market leader in Communication Services with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 14.18% and institutional whale pillar of 9/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $153.17 – $254.30 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 63.1x trailing P/E and 11.5x EV/EBITDA against 17.2% operating margins and a 0.99x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— supply_chain is NONE and butterfly_links is empty. No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or 2nd-order bottlenecks are mapped in the source. Investors should watch how the TEGNA hold-separate and the merger setback (referenced in the news wire) could affect the company's footprint, though the source does not quantify any such effect.

Key Question #1: Can NXST sustain or expand its 17.2% operating margin and 8.4% ROIC against Broadcasting peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $4.95B and free cash flow of $743.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $6.22B in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is NXST's 58.7x forward P/E multiple to Communication Services capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.99x)?

NXST Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Nexstar Media Group Inc. (NXST) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NXST Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) Stock Forecasts

Yahoo Finance report covering Nexstar Media Group Inc. (NXST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:NXST) Stock Has Consensus Price Target of $256.50

MarketBeat report covering Nexstar Media Group Inc. (NXST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Nexstar Media Group (NXST) Stock May Be Above Fair Value Following Merger Setback

Simply Wall St report covering Nexstar Media Group Inc. (NXST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Weekly Recap: Court hold-separate for TEGNA and ABC renewals for 13

TradingView report covering Nexstar Media Group Inc. (NXST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

For the first time, fans outside Texas will be able to stream 12 Texas football finals

Stock Titan report covering Nexstar Media Group Inc. (NXST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST The Globe and Mail • 1d ago

Analysts Are Bullish on These Communication Services Stocks: BCE (BCE), Nexstar Media Group (NXST)

The Globe and Mail report covering Nexstar Media Group Inc. (NXST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Business Wire • 1d ago

Nexstar Media Group Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend of $1.86 Per Share

Business Wire report covering Nexstar Media Group Inc. (NXST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

How Investors May Respond To Nexstar Media Group Stock Free Pacers Simulcasts

Simply Wall St report covering Nexstar Media Group Inc. (NXST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NXST Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $177.54?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NXST 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $209.16 (+22.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Fundamental cash engine scores 13/20 with a 14.18% FCF yield, the strongest pillar in the rating.

Picked up a starter position in NXST in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $171.44. Fundamental cash engine scores 13/20 with a 14.18% FCF yield, the strongest pillar in the rating.. Trading inside a $153.17–$254.30 52-week range with 14.18% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Broadcasting multiples expand this quarter.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@CashFlowKing Agree on the RQD 45/100 quality, though with 0.99 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $171.44 and keeping dry powder in case we test $159.44.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $137.15 (-20.0%)

Spot @ $171.44

Forensic balance sheet scores 6/20 with Altman Z 1.61 and Debt/Equity 3.01, alongside a 63.1 trailing P/E.

Forensic balance sheet scores 6/20 with Altman Z 1.61 and Debt/Equity 3.01, alongside a 63.1 trailing P/E.. Look at the math on NXST: paying 63.1x trailing P/E for 8.4% ROIC and 17.2% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Broadcasting demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $150.87 before getting long.