What is NVAX's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for NVAX.

Stock Ratings / Health Care / NVAX / options

REPL (50) MAZE (37) IMCR (22) ALVO (52) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Novavax Inc. (NVAX) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$10.08 -3.72% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.99

Novavax Inc. (NVAX) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 49/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.66B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NVAX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Novavax Inc. (NASDAQ: NVAX) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $10.08 (-3.72% 1D, market cap $1.66B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, NVAX ranks #274 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NVAX compare to REPL and MAZE in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), NVAX carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 3.9x, gross margin of 93.5%, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, REPL (Replimune Group Inc.) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.67B) and MAZE (Maze Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.75B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NVAX leads on earnings multiple (3.9x) while NVAX leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NVAX?

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Per NVAX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001000694), Novavax Inc. generated $1.12B in revenue (+64.7% YoY), $440.3M in net income, and -$244.6M in free cash flow against $1.18B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.99 (-0.86%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NVAX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (49/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NVAX SCORES 49/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+11/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 54% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 45.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+11/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 55% Net Buy • Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 40.3% operating margin leave 13 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$12.82-10.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$11.43-12.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$10.02+0.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D$10.08-5.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (57) → D (49)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NVAX Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NVAX currently carries a cautious 49/100 (D) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($10.51) and Max Pain ($10.58) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $14.06.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NVAX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NVAX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 49%NO 51%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±12.5%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (NVAX)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for NVAX.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NVAX)

✓Walkthrough of NVAX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

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NVAX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +25.53%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-03O $10.47H $10.47L $10.08C $10.08VOL 4.06M

RES: $14.35SUP: $9.09SMA50: $10.51SMA200: $9.32

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NVAX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NVAX Butterfly Map → + Track NVAX →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

-15.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +64.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NVAX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NVAX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NVAX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NVAX)

Health Care Rank #274 of 1015 ⚔️ REPL vs NVAX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (NVAX vs. REPL, MAZE, IMCR, ALVO)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Novavax Inc. (NVAX) ranks #274 by composite RQD confidence (49/100, grade D) and #285 by equity capitalization ($1.66B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NVAX leads on earnings valuation at 3.9x trailing P/E, while NVAX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 93.5% gross margin. ALVO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 52/100 (D+) compared with NVAX at 49/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NVAX ACTIVE Novavax Inc.	D	49/100	3.9x	93.5%	85.0%	-3.72%	$1.66B	Benchmark Subject
REPL Replimune Group Inc.	D	50/100	—	—	-35.0%	+1.26%	$1.67B	/repl-vs-nvax →
MAZE Maze Therapeutics Inc.	D-	37/100	—	—	-35.0%	-1.41%	$1.75B	/maze-vs-nvax →
IMCR Immunocore Holdings plc	E	22/100	—	96.0%	-35.0%	-2.49%	$1.57B	/imcr-vs-nvax →
ALVO Alvotech	D+	52/100	—	—	—	-4.91%	$1.82B	/alvo-vs-nvax →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001000694 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Novavax Inc. (NVAX) reported GAAP revenue of $1.12B (+64.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $682.2M , and +14.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $440.3M, operating cash flow of -$244.6M, and free cash flow of -$244.6M (-180.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, NVAX closed FY2025 with $1.18B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.12B	$440.3M	-$244.6M	-$244.6M	$1.18B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$682.2M	-$187.5M	-$87.3M	-$87.3M	$1.56B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$983.7M	-$545.1M	-$714.0M	-$714.0M	—	—

3. NVAX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NVAX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does NVAX compare to REPL and MAZE in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NVAX?

Where is NVAX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NVAX last traded at $10.08 (-3.72% on volume of 4,061,779 shares), positioning the stock -4.09% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.51) and +8.15% above its 200-day simple moving average ($9.32). Across its 52-week range of $6.20 to $13.39, NVAX sits at the 54.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($8.82 to $11.34).

Direct Sub-Reports: NVAX RQD Cockpit NVAX 12M Forecast NVAX Earnings & Move NVAX Dividends & DRIP NVAX Insiders & 13F NVAX Whale Options NVAX Profit Sankey NVAX News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 49/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

NVAX — Novavax Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Novavax Inc. (NVAX) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 49/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $10.08 (-3.72% 1D, market capitalization $1.66B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (7/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 85.0%, gross margin of 93.5%, operating margin of 40.3%, and free cash flow yield of -14.17%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (11/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.20, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Novavax Inc. (NVAX) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in the Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) industry..7B. —: the specific product lines, customer base, and revenue model details. Per the market data, gross margin is 93.5%, operating margin 40.3%, and net margin 39.2%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Novavax Inc. (NVAX) reported $1.12B in annual revenue (up from $682.2M in FY2024, +64.7% YoY) and $440.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($983.7M revenue, -$545.1M net income) through FY2025, NVAX scaled operating cash flow to -$244.6M and free cash flow to -$244.6M, backed by $1.18B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 49/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -14.17% and institutional whale pillar of 10/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 7/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $6.20 – $13.39 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Investors must weigh 3.9x trailing P/E and 3.3x EV/EBITDA against 40.3% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Sector correlations are referenced in news headlines only, which mention peers Moderna, Pfizer, and BioNTech moving alongside NVAX. Watch for sector-wide vaccine policy and demand moves as a second-order driver, but the source does not quantify these dependencies.

Key Question #1: Can NVAX sustain or expand its 40.3% operating margin and 85.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.12B and free cash flow of -$244.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is NVAX's 3.5x forward P/E multiple to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

NVAX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Novavax Inc. (NVAX) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NVAX Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 21h ago

Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) is Attracting Investor Attention: Here is What You Should Know

Yahoo Finance report covering Novavax Inc. (NVAX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Investing.com • 1d ago

Why is Novavax stock surging today?

Investing.com report covering Novavax Inc. (NVAX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE 24/7 Wall St. • 1d ago

Novavax Plunges 12% as Selloff Hits Vaccine Makers; Moderna Tumbles 10%, Pfizer Holds Steady

24/7 Wall St. report covering Novavax Inc. (NVAX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Benzinga • 1d ago

Novavax Stock Falls Back: What's Going On? - Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX)

Benzinga report covering Novavax Inc. (NVAX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Novavax (NVAX) Stock Sinks As Market Gains: Here's Why

Yahoo Finance report covering Novavax Inc. (NVAX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST 24/7 Wall St. • 1d ago

Novavax Soars 22% as Sanofi Carries Nuvaxovid Into Vaccination Season; Moderna Climbs 8%, BioNTech Ticks Up

24/7 Wall St. report covering Novavax Inc. (NVAX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Novavax (NVAX) Stock Could Be Above Fair Value As Plague Fears Fade

Yahoo Finance report covering Novavax Inc. (NVAX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST 24/7 Wall St. • 1d ago

Novavax Soars 16%, Moderna Surges 11%, Merck Climbs 3% as Biotech Rallies

24/7 Wall St. report covering Novavax Inc. (NVAX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NVAX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $10.08?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NVAX 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $12.90 (+28.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

ROIC of 85% and FY 2025 net income of $440.3M show strong reported profitability at a 3.9 TTM P/E.

Picked up a starter position in NVAX in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $10.08. ROIC of 85% and FY 2025 net income of $440.3M show strong reported profitability at a 3.9 TTM P/E.. Trading inside a $6.20–$13.39 52-week range with -14.17% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) multiples expand this quarter.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — NVAX's 10/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.16 (-19.0%)

Spot @ $10.08

Free cash flow of -14.17% yield and an Altman Z-Score of 0.2 signal cash burn and financial distress risk.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on NVAX: Free cash flow of -14.17% yield and an Altman Z-Score of 0.2 signal cash burn and financial distress risk.. At 3.9x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) triggers a 12-15% air pocket.