NAPCO Security Technologies Inc. (NSSC) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±5.5% Move

NSSC scores 72 out of 100, grade B, labeled "Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward." The five pillars are:

• Fundamental cash engine: 20 / 20. this pillar reflects ROIC of 45.7% and FCF yield of 3.6%. This is the strongest pillar and the main upside driver in the framework: the business converts capital into returns at a high rate, though the 3.6% FCF yield indicates the market is pricing in substantial growth expectations.
• Whale / 13F flow: 11 / 20. Institutional accumulation and options positioning are rated mid-range. For a prospective investor, this suggests institutional interest is present but not a dominant tailwind.
• Insider conviction: 14 / 20. SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow are rated moderately positive, offering partial support for management and insider confidence.
• Macro regime fit: 11 / 20. Beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity place the stock in a mid-range position relative to market-wide movements; it neither dampens nor amplifies broad market swings by the measure provided.
• Forensic balance sheet: 16 / 20. Altman Z of 26, Piotroski F of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5 indicate a financially sound balance sheet with moderate-to-low distress risk.

Valuation tradeoff: per the market data, the stock trades at a trailing P/E of 32.9 and EV/EBITDA of 27.6, which are elevated relative to the cash-return metrics. A prospective investor should weigh strong operating economics against a valuation that leaves limited margin for error if growth slows. The 52-week range of $33.91 – $51.77 places the current price of $39.98 in the lower portion of that band.

. (NSSC) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Communication Services sector and the Telecommunications Equipment industry. Revenue is reported, but the specific product lines, customer segments, and revenue mix are — Per the market data, gross margin is 55.6%, operating margin is 25.5%, and net margin is 23.9%, indicating meaningful pricing power and cost control.

Revenue declined from $188.8M in FY 2024 to $181.6M in FY 2025, while FCF rose from $43.8M to $51.4M and cash increased from $86.0M to $104.9M. Per the market data, operating margin is 25.5%, net margin is 23.9%, and ROIC is 45.7%. The Altman Z-Score is 26, the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. Debt figures for the periods shown are —, so the Debt/Equity ratio cannot be reconciled against the reported line items.

• 🐂 Primary Bull Case: A 45.7% ROIC and a perfect 20/20 cash-engine score show a highly capital-efficient business. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 20/20 (ROIC 45.7%, FCF yield 3.60%) and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $33.91 – $51.77 52-week range.
• 🐻 Primary Bear Case: A 32.9 trailing P/E and 27.6 EV/EBITDA leave the valuation exposed to any growth slowdown, as seen in the fiscal Q1 miss. Investors must weigh 32.9x trailing P/E and 27.6x EV/EBITDA against 25.5% operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

Operating in Telecommunications Equipment (Communication Services), NSSC carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 55.6%.

• Key Question #1: What is the total debt balance, and how does it reconcile with the stated Debt/Equity of 0.5?
• Key Question #2: What drove the fiscal Q1 revenue and EPS miss, and how does it affect the forward P/E of 30.6?
• Key Question #3: What is the EPS figure for each reported fiscal year, given that the financials show EPS as N/A?