Why NP Stock advanced +1.28% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$29.18 +1.28% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.19

Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NP) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $4.03B
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: NP) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $29.18 (+1.28% 1D, market cap $4.03B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, NP ranks #268 in composite RQD confidence.

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🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NP compare to CRVL and ARX in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Specialty Insurers), NP carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 106.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 28.2%. By comparison, CRVL (CorVel Corp.) holds a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 37.6x, ROIC 29.4%, cap $4.15B) and ARX (Accelerant Holdings (Class A)) posts a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $4.30B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HGTY leads on earnings multiple (37.5x) while HGTY leads on capital efficiency (67.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NP?
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Per NP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002067129), Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) generated $159.6M in revenue (+33.7% YoY), $37.4M in net income, and $51.7M in free cash flow against $65.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.19 (+0.04%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 17/20 (A-) • 32.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510064
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C+
Cash (17)Whales (10)SEC (12)Macro (15)CEO (10)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target
$37 Bull$30 Base$23 Bear
📬 FREE NP RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NP SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+17/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 32.4% FCF Margin ($51.7M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 71% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 51.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 10 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
56
Grade C$29.17+1.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
59
Grade C$29.49-0.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
61
Grade C$29.47-1% Next Q
Current
64
Grade C$29.18+1.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (56) → C (64)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NP Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 64/100 (C) score, NP faces multiple-compression risk if 106.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Priced at 106x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($29.80) or 200D SMA ($27.49) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($29.97) toward Bear Floor ($23.38).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why NP Stock advanced +1.28% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NP) advanced +1.28% to $29.18, trading at 71% of its 52-week range ($14.78 – $35.15). Solid steady margins (28% return on capital), mixed timing at 106x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 71% of its 52-week range ($14.78 – $35.15) with RSI-14 at 51.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7.8% around $29.18 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $51.7M annual free cash flow.
Live NP Headlines & Catalysts
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Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (NP Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
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NP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +19.30%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $28.81H $29.18L $28.81C $29.18VOL 571.3K
RES: $35.72SUP: $25.55SMA50: $29.80SMA200: $27.49
$35.95$32.63$29.31$25.98$22.66RES $35.72SUP $25.55$29.182026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +33.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NP)

Financials Rank #268 of 1096 ⚔️ CRVL vs NP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (NP vs. CRVL, ARX, BWIN, HGTY)

Industry: Specialty Insurers (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NP) ranks #268 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #309 by equity capitalization ($4.03B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HGTY leads on earnings valuation at 37.5x trailing P/E, while HGTY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 67.4% ROIC and — gross margin. CRVL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with NP at 64/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NP ACTIVE
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A)
C 64/100 106.4x — 28.2% +1.28% $4.03B Benchmark Subject
CRVL
CorVel Corp.
B 75/100 37.6x — 29.4% +0.04% $4.15B /crvl-vs-np →
ARX
Accelerant Holdings (Class A)
C 64/100 — — — 0.00% $4.30B /arx-vs-np →
BWIN
The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc.
D 48/100 — — 3.6% +0.31% $4.45B /bwin-vs-np →
HGTY
Hagerty Inc. (Class A)
B 75/100 37.5x — 67.4% +0.78% $5.64B /hgty-vs-np →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002067129

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NP) reported GAAP revenue of $159.6M (+33.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $119.3M , and +88.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $37.4M, operating cash flow of $51.7M, and free cash flow of $51.7M (+3.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, NP closed FY2025 with $65.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $159.6M $37.4M $51.7M $51.7M $65.3M $0
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $119.3M $34.6M $49.9M $49.9M $48.2M $125.1M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $84.9M $17.9M $18.6M $18.6M — —

3. NP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: NP) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $29.18 (+1.28% 1D, market cap $4.03B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, NP ranks #268 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NP compare to CRVL and ARX in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Specialty Insurers), NP carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 106.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 28.2%. By comparison, CRVL (CorVel Corp.) holds a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 37.6x, ROIC 29.4%, cap $4.15B) and ARX (Accelerant Holdings (Class A)) posts a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $4.30B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HGTY leads on earnings multiple (37.5x) while HGTY leads on capital efficiency (67.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NP?

Per NP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002067129), Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) generated $159.6M in revenue (+33.7% YoY), $37.4M in net income, and $51.7M in free cash flow against $65.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NP last traded at $29.18 (+1.28% on volume of 571,273 shares), positioning the stock -2.08% below its 50-day simple moving average ($29.80) and +6.15% above its 200-day simple moving average ($27.49). Across its 52-week range of $14.78 to $35.15, NP sits at the 70.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.8% ($26.90 to $31.46).

NP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Why is NP stock moving today?

Why NP Stock advanced +1.28% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (28% return on capital), mixed timing at 106x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 64/100 (C) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

NP — Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:22:35Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, NP scores 64 out of 100 with a letter grade of C, labeled "Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (17 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 28.2% and FCF yield is 1.3%. The high return on invested capital is a strength; the low FCF yield implies that the cash generated is small relative to the market capitalization.
  • Whale 13F Flow (10 / 20): Institutional accumulation and options positioning received a mid-range score. The source data contains no holder detail, so the basis for this score cannot be traced further.
  • Insider Conviction (10 / 20): SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow received a mid-range score. Per the recent news wire, a proposed sale of 406,152 shares by the CEO following a compensation grant is reported; this is a single reported item, not a verified cluster.
  • Macro Regime Fit (15 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta is 1.0, indicating market-level sensitivity in the source data.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet (12 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, Altman Z is 2.5, Piotroski F is 7/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5.

For a prospective investor, the rating describes a balanced setup rather than a clear directional signal. Strengths sit in profitability and return metrics; constraints sit in cash yield, insider and institutional confirmation, and the valuation multiples shown in the market data (P/E TTM of 106.4 and EV/EBITDA of 56). The rating is educational context, not a recommendation.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
28.81$3.98B106.489.4560.270%1.0$14.78 - $35.1528.2%

Business

Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector and Specialty Insurers industry, per the profile. Per the SEC financials, the company reports revenue, operating income, and net income across FY 2023–FY 2025. Source data does not describe the company's products, customer base, or specific revenue model beyond sector and industry classification.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$159.6M$71.0M$37.4MN/A$51.7M$8.0M$0.0M
FY 2024$119.3M$68.4M$34.6MN/A$49.9M$7.1M$125.1M
FY 2023$84.9M$45.4M$17.9MN/A$18.6MN/AN/A

Per the market data, operating margin is 44.5%, net margin is 23.4%, and gross margin is 0%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 28.2%, Altman Z-Score is 2.5, and Piotroski F-Score is 7/9. Debt/Equity is 0.5 per the RQD rating, and reported debt moves from $125.1M (FY 2024) to $0.0M (FY 2025) in the SEC financials.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news wire, the items are:

  • A Q3 earnings report from Yahoo Finance comparing key metrics to Wall Street estimates (flagged YELLOW, MARKET WIRE).
  • A ChartMill report headlined as a record Q3 2026 revenue beat (flagged GREEN, CATALYST).
  • A second Yahoo Finance Q3 report stating earnings and revenues surpassed estimates (flagged YELLOW).
  • A Simply Wall St forecast and analyst-predictions piece (flagged YELLOW).
  • A Globe and Mail piece describing conflicting analyst sentiment on NP and LATAM Airlines (flagged YELLOW).
  • A Stock Titan report on a proposed 406,152-share CEO sale following a compensation grant (flagged YELLOW).

Risk watch: the proposed CEO sale is the only insider-activity item in the feed. The butterfly graph reports no supply-chain links or proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are not available in source data. Sector and industry classification alone (Financials / Specialty Insurers) is the only context provided.

Open Questions

  • What is the company's specific product and customer mix within Specialty Insurers, and how does it generate revenue?
  • Why are EPS values listed as N/A for all reported periods while net income is reported, and what is the per-share share count?
  • What drove the reported debt reduction from $125.1M to $0.0M between FY 2024 and FY 2025, and what is the FY 2023 cash and debt position?
  • What does the record Q3 2026 revenue headline quantify in dollars, and how does it compare to FY 2025 reported revenue?
  • Does the proposed CEO sale of 406,152 shares represent a meaningful share of holdings, and are there any other insider or institutional transactions?

NP Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NP) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NP Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NP Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $29.18?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NP 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NP:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $31.11 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is NP (C • RQD 64/100) a Buy at $28.81?

Welcome to the NP (Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A)) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 64/100 (Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward) in Specialty Insurers. Bulls point to capital efficiency (28.2% ROIC), while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (106.4x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $23.05 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $28.81

Pump the brakes on NP — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on NP, but look at what you are paying: 106.4x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $36.88 (+28.0%)
Spot @ $28.81

NP cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on NP, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Specialty Insurers and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $28.81 (52-wk range $14.78 - $35.15), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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