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Stock Ratings / Financials / NP / insiders
CRVL (75) ARX (64) BWIN (48) HGTY (75) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NP) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$29.18 +1.28% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.19

Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NP) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $4.03B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on NP Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: NP) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $29.18 (+1.28% 1D, market cap $4.03B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, NP ranks #268 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NP compare to CRVL and ARX in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Specialty Insurers), NP carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 106.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 28.2%. By comparison, CRVL (CorVel Corp.) holds a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 37.6x, ROIC 29.4%, cap $4.15B) and ARX (Accelerant Holdings (Class A)) posts a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $4.30B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HGTY leads on earnings multiple (37.5x) while HGTY leads on capital efficiency (67.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NP?
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Per NP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002067129), Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) generated $159.6M in revenue (+33.7% YoY), $37.4M in net income, and $51.7M in free cash flow against $65.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.19 (+0.04%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 17/20 (A-) • 32.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510064
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C+
Cash (17)Whales (10)SEC (12)Macro (15)CEO (10)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target
$37 Bull$30 Base$23 Bear
📬 FREE NP RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NP SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+17/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 32.4% FCF Margin ($51.7M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 71% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 51.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 10 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
56
Grade C$29.17+1.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
59
Grade C$29.49-0.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
61
Grade C$29.47-1% Next Q
Current
64
Grade C$29.18+1.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (56) → C (64)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NP Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 64/100 (C) score, NP faces multiple-compression risk if 106.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Priced at 106x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($29.80) or 200D SMA ($27.49) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($29.97) toward Bear Floor ($23.38).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 64%NO 36%Trade / Inspect Odds →
SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

NP Smart-Money Thermometer: BALANCED INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →
▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (NP)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on NP. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (NP Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
NP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +19.30%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $28.81H $29.18L $28.81C $29.18VOL 571.3K
RES: $35.72SUP: $25.55SMA50: $29.80SMA200: $27.49
$35.95$32.63$29.31$25.98$22.66RES $35.72SUP $25.55$29.182026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NP Butterfly Map → + Track NP →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +33.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NP)

Financials Rank #268 of 1096 ⚔️ CRVL vs NP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (NP vs. CRVL, ARX, BWIN, HGTY)

Industry: Specialty Insurers (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NP) ranks #268 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #309 by equity capitalization ($4.03B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HGTY leads on earnings valuation at 37.5x trailing P/E, while HGTY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 67.4% ROIC and — gross margin. CRVL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with NP at 64/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NP ACTIVE
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A)
C 64/100 106.4x — 28.2% +1.28% $4.03B Benchmark Subject
CRVL
CorVel Corp.
B 75/100 37.6x — 29.4% +0.04% $4.15B /crvl-vs-np →
ARX
Accelerant Holdings (Class A)
C 64/100 — — — 0.00% $4.30B /arx-vs-np →
BWIN
The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc.
D 48/100 — — 3.6% +0.31% $4.45B /bwin-vs-np →
HGTY
Hagerty Inc. (Class A)
B 75/100 37.5x — 67.4% +0.78% $5.64B /hgty-vs-np →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002067129

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NP) reported GAAP revenue of $159.6M (+33.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $119.3M , and +88.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $37.4M, operating cash flow of $51.7M, and free cash flow of $51.7M (+3.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, NP closed FY2025 with $65.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $159.6M $37.4M $51.7M $51.7M $65.3M $0
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $119.3M $34.6M $49.9M $49.9M $48.2M $125.1M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $84.9M $17.9M $18.6M $18.6M — —

3. NP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: NP) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $29.18 (+1.28% 1D, market cap $4.03B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, NP ranks #268 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NP compare to CRVL and ARX in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Specialty Insurers), NP carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 106.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 28.2%. By comparison, CRVL (CorVel Corp.) holds a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 37.6x, ROIC 29.4%, cap $4.15B) and ARX (Accelerant Holdings (Class A)) posts a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $4.30B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HGTY leads on earnings multiple (37.5x) while HGTY leads on capital efficiency (67.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NP?

Per NP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002067129), Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) generated $159.6M in revenue (+33.7% YoY), $37.4M in net income, and $51.7M in free cash flow against $65.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NP last traded at $29.18 (+1.28% on volume of 571,273 shares), positioning the stock -2.08% below its 50-day simple moving average ($29.80) and +6.15% above its 200-day simple moving average ($27.49). Across its 52-week range of $14.78 to $35.15, NP sits at the 70.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.8% ($26.90 to $31.46).

Direct Sub-Reports: NP RQD Cockpit NP 12M Forecast NP Earnings & Move NP Dividends & DRIP NP Insiders & 13F NP Whale Options NP Profit Sankey NP News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 64/100 (C) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

NP — Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:22:35Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, NP scores 64 out of 100 with a letter grade of C, labeled "Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (17 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 28.2% and FCF yield is 1.3%. The high return on invested capital is a strength; the low FCF yield implies that the cash generated is small relative to the market capitalization.
  • Whale 13F Flow (10 / 20): Institutional accumulation and options positioning received a mid-range score. The source data contains no holder detail, so the basis for this score cannot be traced further.
  • Insider Conviction (10 / 20): SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow received a mid-range score. Per the recent news wire, a proposed sale of 406,152 shares by the CEO following a compensation grant is reported; this is a single reported item, not a verified cluster.
  • Macro Regime Fit (15 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta is 1.0, indicating market-level sensitivity in the source data.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet (12 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, Altman Z is 2.5, Piotroski F is 7/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5.

For a prospective investor, the rating describes a balanced setup rather than a clear directional signal. Strengths sit in profitability and return metrics; constraints sit in cash yield, insider and institutional confirmation, and the valuation multiples shown in the market data (P/E TTM of 106.4 and EV/EBITDA of 56). The rating is educational context, not a recommendation.

Business

Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector and Specialty Insurers industry,

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news wire, the items are:

  • A Q3 earnings report from Yahoo Finance comparing key metrics to Wall Street estimates (flagged YELLOW, MARKET WIRE).
  • A ChartMill report headlined as a record Q3 2026 revenue beat (flagged GREEN, CATALYST).
  • A second Yahoo Finance Q3 report stating earnings and revenues surpassed estimates (flagged YELLOW).
  • A Simply Wall St forecast and analyst-predictions piece (flagged YELLOW).
  • A Globe and Mail piece describing conflicting analyst sentiment on NP and LATAM Airlines (flagged YELLOW).
  • A Stock Titan report on a proposed 406,152-share CEO sale following a compensation grant (flagged YELLOW).

Risk watch: the proposed CEO sale is the only insider-activity item in the feed. The butterfly graph reports no supply-chain links or proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Sector and industry classification alone (Financials / Specialty Insurers) is the only context provided.

Analyst View & Smart Money Ownership

Analyst data: —

Holders (SEC Form 4, 13F, Congressional trades): —

Open Questions

  • What is the company's specific product and customer mix within Specialty Insurers, and how does it generate revenue?
  • Why are EPS values listed as N/A for all reported periods while net income is reported, and what is the per-share share count?
  • What drove the reported debt reduction from $125.1M to — between FY 2024 and FY 2025, and what is the FY 2023 cash and debt position?
  • What does the record Q3 2026 revenue headline quantify in dollars, and how does it compare to FY 2025 reported revenue?
  • Does the proposed CEO sale of 406,152 shares represent a meaningful share of holdings, and are there any other insider or institutional transactions?

NP Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NP) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NP Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NP Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $29.18?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NP 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NP:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $31.11 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is NP (C • RQD 64/100) a Buy at $28.81?

Welcome to the NP (Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A)) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 64/100 (Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward) in Specialty Insurers. Bulls point to capital efficiency (28.2% ROIC), while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (106.4x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $23.05 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $28.81

Pump the brakes on NP — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on NP, but look at what you are paying: 106.4x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (Class A) expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $36.88 (+28.0%)
Spot @ $28.81

NP cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on NP, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Specialty Insurers and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $28.81 (52-wk range $14.78 - $35.15), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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