What is NL's 12-month stock price target?

NLI Holdings Inc. (NL) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $6.56 (-5.3% from $6.93), with a bull-case target of $9.03 and a bear-case floor of $5.12.

Stock Ratings / Materials / NL / forecast

SLI (44) ADUR (45) OEC (39) ASPI (21) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

NLI Holdings Inc. (NL) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Q: Is NL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates NL D (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 46/100.

$6.93 -2.53% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.89

NLI Holdings Inc. (NL) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $347.7M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on NL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, NLI Holdings Inc. (NYSE: NL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $6.93 (-2.53% 1D, market cap $347.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 4/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, NL ranks #125 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NL compare to SLI and ADUR in the Materials sector?

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Within the Materials sector (Major Chemicals), NL carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 30.4%, and ROIC of 3.4%. By comparison, SLI (Standard Lithium Ltd.) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $355.5M) and ADUR (Aduro Clean Technologies Inc.) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $363.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NL leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while NL leads on capital efficiency (3.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NL?

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Per NL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000072162), NLI Holdings Inc. generated $158.3M in revenue (+8.5% YoY), -$37.8M in net income, and -$40.1M in free cash flow against $464.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.88 (-0.65%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NL SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (26% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±6.8% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$6.63+1.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$6.72+1.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$6.80+1.9% Next Q

Current

Grade D$6.93-6.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (38) → D (46)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NL currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.86) and Max Pain ($7.28) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $9.03.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 46%NO 54%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your NL Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $6.93: 1443.0 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $5.12

$7,388

$-2,612 (-26.1%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $6.56

$9,466

$-534 (-5.3%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $9.03

$13,030

+$3,030 (+30.3%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$7	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$8	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$6	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NL)

✓Walkthrough of NL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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NL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +17.46%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-03O $6.99H $7.11L $6.93C $6.93VOL 18.2K

RES: $7.82SUP: $6.67SMA50: $6.86SMA200: $6.29

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NL Butterfly Map → + Track NL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

14.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NL)

Materials Rank #125 of 270 ⚔️ SLI vs NL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (NL vs. SLI, ADUR, OEC, ASPI)

Industry: Major Chemicals (67 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, NLI Holdings Inc. (NL) ranks #125 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #191 by equity capitalization ($347.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NL leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while NL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 3.4% ROIC and 30.4% gross margin. NL currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 46/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NL ACTIVE NLI Holdings Inc.	D	46/100	—	30.4%	3.4%	-2.53%	$347.7M	Benchmark Subject
SLI Standard Lithium Ltd.	D	44/100	—	—	—	-2.78%	$355.5M	/sli-vs-nl →
ADUR Aduro Clean Technologies Inc.	D	45/100	—	—	—	-6.00%	$363.5M	/adur-vs-nl →
OEC Orion S.A.	D-	39/100	—	19.9%	2.2%	+0.71%	$316.5M	/oec-vs-nl →
ASPI ASP Isotopes Inc.	E	21/100	—	14.3%	-35.0%	-3.96%	$309.7M	/aspi-vs-nl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000072162

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), NLI Holdings Inc. (NL) reported GAAP revenue of $158.3M (+8.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $145.9M , and -1.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$37.8M, operating cash flow of -$36.4M, and free cash flow of -$40.1M (-266.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, NL closed FY2025 with $464.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$158.3M	-$37.8M	-$36.4M	-$40.1M	$464.2M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$145.9M	$67.2M	$25.6M	$24.1M	$578.3M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$161.3M	-$2.3M	$37.0M	$37.0M	—	—

3. NL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does NL compare to SLI and ADUR in the Materials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NL?

Where is NL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NL last traded at $6.93 (-2.53% on volume of 23,129 shares), positioning the stock +1.02% above its 50-day simple moving average ($6.86) and +10.17% above its 200-day simple moving average ($6.29). Across its 52-week range of $5.04 to $8.60, NL sits at the 53.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.8% ($6.46 to $7.40).

Direct Sub-Reports: NL RQD Cockpit NL 12M Forecast NL Earnings & Move NL Dividends & DRIP NL Insiders & 13F NL Whale Options NL Profit Sankey NL News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 46/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

NL — NLI Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

NLI Holdings Inc. (NL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 46/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $6.93 (-2.53% 1D, market capitalization $347.7M).

Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 3.4%, gross margin of 30.4%, operating margin of 6.7%, and free cash flow yield of -11.75%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (11/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (4/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

NLI Holdings Inc. (NL) is a NYSE-listed operating company in the Major Chemicals industry (Materials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $347.7M. The business operates with a gross margin of 30.4%, an operating margin of 6.7%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 3.4% (free cash flow yield of -11.75%). Within the Major Chemicals peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), NLI Holdings Inc. (NL) reported $158.3M in annual revenue (up from $145.9M in FY2024, +8.5% YoY) and -$37.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($161.3M revenue, -$2.3M net income) through FY2025, NL scaled operating cash flow to -$36.4M and free cash flow to -$40.1M, backed by $464.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 46/100): Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -11.75% and institutional whale pillar of 12/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $5.04 – $8.60 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation and 16.7x EV/EBITDA against 6.7% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Supply_chain is NONE, butterfly_links is empty, and proprietary_signals is empty. Upstream suppliers, downstream customers, and sector correlations are — Investors should note that the absence of mapped links means the framework cannot identify 2nd-order bottlenecks from this dataset; any assessment of ripple effects would require sources not included here.

Key Question #1: Can NL sustain or expand its 6.7% operating margin and 3.4% ROIC against Major Chemicals peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $158.3M and free cash flow of -$40.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is NL's equity valuation to Materials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

NL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for NLI Holdings Inc. (NL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NL Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 20h ago

NLI HOLDINGS ANNOUNCES QUARTERLY DIVIDEND FOR THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 2026 AT $.10 PER SHARE

Yahoo Finance report covering NLI Holdings Inc. (NL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 23h ago

NLI Holdings Declares $0.10 Per-Share Dividend for Q4 2026

TradingView report covering NLI Holdings Inc. (NL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST marketscreener.com • 1d ago

NLI Holdings Keeps Quarterly Dividend at $0.10 a Share, Payable Dec. 15 to Shareholders of Record on Nov. 19

marketscreener.com report covering NLI Holdings Inc. (NL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

NLI HOLDINGS ANNOUNCES EXPECTED THIRD QUARTER 2026 EARNINGS RELEASE DATE

Yahoo Finance report covering NLI Holdings Inc. (NL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Fintel • 4d ago

NL Industries, Inc. Announces Quarterly Dividend of $0.10 Per Share

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 40d ago

NL Upgraded to Outperform on CompX Strength, Kronos Recovery

NLI Holdings' "Outperform" upgrade reflects stronger CompX margins, broad Security Products demand and improved Kronos execution after restructuring.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 172d ago

NL INDUSTRIES, INC. ANNOUNCES QUARTERLY DIVIDEND AND RESULTS OF ANNUAL SHAREHOLDER MEETING

Dallas, Texas, May 14, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- NL Industries, Inc. (NYSE: NL) announced that its board of directors has declared a quarterly dividend of ten cents ($0.10) per share on its common stock, payable on June 2

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 180d ago

NL REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS

Dallas, Texas, May 06, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- NL Industries, Inc. (NYSE: NL) today reported net income attributable to NL stockholders of $4.3 million, or $.09 per share, in the first quarter of 2026 compared to $.7 mi

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $6.93?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $8.25 (+16.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

The stock carries a 5.15% dividend yield and a 16.7x EV/EBITDA multiple while its beta of 1.0 and middling Altman Z of 2.5 show no acut

Picked up a starter position in NL in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $7.11. The stock carries a 5.15% dividend yield and a 16.7x EV/EBITDA multiple while its beta of 1.0 and middling Altman Z of 2.5 show no acute balance-sheet distress.. Trading inside a $5.04–$8.60 52-week range with -11.75% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Major Chemicals multiples expand this quarter.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@MultipleCompression Shorting a 12/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $7.11 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Materials.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $5.69 (-20.0%)

Spot @ $7.11

Free cash flow was negative at -$40.1M in FY 2025 with a -11.75% FCF yield, and insider conviction scored just 4 of 20 in the RQD ratin

Fading this rally in NL at $7.11. Free cash flow was negative at -$40.1M in FY 2025 with a -11.75% FCF yield, and insider conviction scored just 4 of 20 in the RQD rating.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $7.11 (52-wk range $5.04–$8.60), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.