Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
As of 2026-11-03, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NYSE: NCDL) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $11.16 (+0.54% 1D, market cap $551.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, NCDL ranks #198 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Industrials sector (Diversified Equities), NCDL carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 7.5%. By comparison, ISOU (IsoEnergy Ltd.) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $565.6M) and APXC (Apex Critical Metals Corp.) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $487.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NCDL leads on earnings multiple (8.4x) while NCDL leads on capital efficiency (7.5% ROIC).
Per NCDL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001737924), Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. generated $0 in revenue, $65.6M in net income, and $194.2M in free cash flow against $2.05B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 4.9% FCF Margin ($194.2M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9
Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (54.1) create a -14 pt regime headwind
While NCDL currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($11.49) and Max Pain ($11.72) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $15.82.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) advanced +0.54% to $11.16, trading at 18% of its 52-week range ($10.31 – $15.07). Stretched risk/reward at 8x P/E (8% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Yahoo Finance report covering Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
The Globe and Mail report covering Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
scanx.trade report covering Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
https://www.siam.in/ report covering Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
www.dars.gov.et report covering Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Navigate the income market sell-off with risk management, scenario analysis and All-Weather allocation. Read the full analysis here.
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NCDL today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NCDL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) ranks #198 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #290 by equity capitalization ($551.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NCDL leads on earnings valuation at 8.4x trailing P/E, while NCDL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.5% ROIC and — gross margin. NCDL currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 53/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCDL
ACTIVE
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. | D+ | 53/100 | 8.4x | — | 7.5% | +0.54% | $551.2M | Benchmark Subject |
| ISOU IsoEnergy Ltd. | D | 45/100 | — | — | — | -1.70% | $565.6M | /isou-vs-ncdl → |
| APXC Apex Critical Metals Corp. | D+ | 53/100 | — | — | — | -8.11% | $487.1M | /apxc-vs-ncdl → |
| BMM Blue Moon Metals Inc. | D- | 43/100 | — | — | — | -8.11% | $405.3M | /bmm-vs-ncdl → |
| AUXX Gold X2 Mining Inc. | D- | 41/100 | — | — | — | -2.81% | $385.5M | /auxx-vs-ncdl → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $65.6M, operating cash flow of $194.2M, and free cash flow of $194.2M (+165.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, NCDL closed FY2025 with $2.05B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $65.6M | $194.2M | $194.2M | $2.05B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $116.3M | -$297.2M | -$297.2M | $2.14B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $75.9M | -$369.5M | -$369.5M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-03, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NYSE: NCDL) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $11.16 (+0.54% 1D, market cap $551.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, NCDL ranks #198 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Industrials sector (Diversified Equities), NCDL carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 7.5%. By comparison, ISOU (IsoEnergy Ltd.) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $565.6M) and APXC (Apex Critical Metals Corp.) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $487.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NCDL leads on earnings multiple (8.4x) while NCDL leads on capital efficiency (7.5% ROIC).
Per NCDL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001737924), Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. generated $0 in revenue, $65.6M in net income, and $194.2M in free cash flow against $2.05B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
NCDL last traded at $11.16 (+0.54% on volume of 502,314 shares), positioning the stock -2.87% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.49) and -12.33% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.73). Across its 52-week range of $10.31 to $15.07, NCDL sits at the 17.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.3% ($10.57 to $11.75).
Why NCDL Stock advanced +0.54% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 8x P/E (8% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Per the Roarable RQD rating, NCDL scores 50 out of 100, a letter grade of D, with the verdict label "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are:
For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the key implications are as follows. The overall grade reflects weakness in institutional flow and macro-regime fit more than in the balance sheet. Upside drivers would need to come from improved cash generation, since the current FCF yield of 0% gives no cash-return cushion at the present price. Valuation tradeoffs are visible in the market data: trailing P/E of 8.4 and forward P/E of 7.8 are low on paper, but the rating's emphasis on cash engine and distribution risk suggests the discount may reflect those concerns. The dividend yield of 0% in the market data is also relevant to any income-oriented reading of the rating. This is educational context, not personalized advice.
The news wire contains five items, all tagged to NCDL:
The earnings date is the nearest scheduled event. The 52-week-low report is the main risk item. The sole GREEN signal is the price-action report. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports supply chain as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Yahoo Finance report covering Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
The Globe and Mail report covering Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
scanx.trade report covering Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
https://www.siam.in/ report covering Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
www.dars.gov.et report covering Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Welcome to the NCDL (Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 50/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Diversified Equities. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.
Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on NCDL, but look at what you are paying: 8.4x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.
Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on NCDL, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Diversified Equities and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $11.10 (52-wk range $10.31 - $15.07), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.
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