Stock Ratings / Industrials / NCDL / financials

ISOU (45) APXC (53) BMM (43) AUXX (41) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$11.16 +0.54% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.15

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $551.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on NCDL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NCDL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NYSE: NCDL) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $11.16 (+0.54% 1D, market cap $551.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, NCDL ranks #198 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NCDL compare to ISOU and APXC in the Industrials sector?

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Within the Industrials sector (Diversified Equities), NCDL carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 7.5%. By comparison, ISOU (IsoEnergy Ltd.) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $565.6M) and APXC (Apex Critical Metals Corp.) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $487.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NCDL leads on earnings multiple (8.4x) while NCDL leads on capital efficiency (7.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NCDL?

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Per NCDL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001737924), Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. generated $0 in revenue, $65.6M in net income, and $194.2M in free cash flow against $2.05B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.15 (-0.09%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 4.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NCDL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NCDL SCORES 53/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 4.9% FCF Margin ($194.2M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (54.1) create a -14 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$10.77-3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$10.45+3.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$10.81+3.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$11.16-0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (45) → D+ (53)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NCDL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NCDL currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($11.49) and Max Pain ($11.72) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $15.82.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NCDL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NCDL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 53%NO 47%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How NCDL Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$194.2M (4.9% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $4.00B

FY24

Rev $4.00B

FY25

Rev $4.00B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$4.00B	52%	0%	$65.6M	$194.2M	7.5%
FY 2024	$4.00B	52%	0%	$116.3M	-$297.2M	7.5%
FY 2023	$4.00B	52%	0%	$75.9M	-$369.5M	7.5%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NCDL)

✓Walkthrough of NCDL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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NCDL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -24.54%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-03O $11.10H $11.16L $11.10C $11.16VOL 502.3K

RES: $12.38SUP: $9.97SMA50: $11.49SMA200: $12.73

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NCDL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NCDL Butterfly Map → + Track NCDL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-4.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NCDL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NCDL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NCDL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NCDL)

Industrials Rank #198 of 485 ⚔️ ISOU vs NCDL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (NCDL vs. ISOU, APXC, BMM, AUXX)

Industry: Diversified Equities (43 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) ranks #198 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #290 by equity capitalization ($551.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NCDL leads on earnings valuation at 8.4x trailing P/E, while NCDL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.5% ROIC and — gross margin. NCDL currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 53/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NCDL ACTIVE Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.	D+	53/100	8.4x	—	7.5%	+0.54%	$551.2M	Benchmark Subject
ISOU IsoEnergy Ltd.	D	45/100	—	—	—	-1.70%	$565.6M	/isou-vs-ncdl →
APXC Apex Critical Metals Corp.	D+	53/100	—	—	—	-8.11%	$487.1M	/apxc-vs-ncdl →
BMM Blue Moon Metals Inc.	D-	43/100	—	—	—	-8.11%	$405.3M	/bmm-vs-ncdl →
AUXX Gold X2 Mining Inc.	D-	41/100	—	—	—	-2.81%	$385.5M	/auxx-vs-ncdl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001737924

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $65.6M, operating cash flow of $194.2M, and free cash flow of $194.2M (+165.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, NCDL closed FY2025 with $2.05B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$65.6M	$194.2M	$194.2M	$2.05B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$116.3M	-$297.2M	-$297.2M	$2.14B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$75.9M	-$369.5M	-$369.5M	—	—

3. NCDL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NCDL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does NCDL compare to ISOU and APXC in the Industrials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NCDL?

Where is NCDL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NCDL last traded at $11.16 (+0.54% on volume of 502,314 shares), positioning the stock -2.87% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.49) and -12.33% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.73). Across its 52-week range of $10.31 to $15.07, NCDL sits at the 17.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.3% ($10.57 to $11.75).

NCDL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), NCDL converted $4.0B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $194.2M in free cash flow (4.9% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: NCDL RQD Cockpit NCDL 12M Forecast NCDL Earnings & Move NCDL Dividends & DRIP NCDL Insiders & 13F NCDL Whale Options NCDL Profit Sankey NCDL News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 53/100 (D+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

NCDL — Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:35:12Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, NCDL scores 50 out of 100, a letter grade of D, with the verdict label "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are:

Fundamental Cash Engine — 14 / 20: Reported ROIC is 7.5%, while FCF yield is 0%. The pillar is moderate on returns but offers no free-cash-flow yield on the current price.
Whale 13F Flow — 5 / 20: Institutional accumulation and options positioning are weak in this rating. Source data provides no 13F holder detail to explain the score (see Analyst View section).
Insider Conviction — 12 / 20: The rating reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow at a moderate level. The underlying transaction records are not itemized in the source data.
Macro Regime Fit — 6 / 20: Beta is 1.0 and the rating notes sector sensitivity, indicating limited defensive character relative to the market.
Forensic Balance Sheet — 13 / 20: Altman Z is 2.5, Piotroski F is 4/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. These are mid-range readings rather than a clear strength or distress signal.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the key implications are as follows. The overall grade reflects weakness in institutional flow and macro-regime fit more than in the balance sheet. Upside drivers would need to come from improved cash generation, since the current FCF yield of 0% gives no cash-return cushion at the present price. Valuation tradeoffs are visible in the market data: trailing P/E of 8.4 and forward P/E of 7.8 are low on paper, but the rating's emphasis on cash engine and distribution risk suggests the discount may reflect those concerns. The dividend yield of 0% in the market data is also relevant to any income-oriented reading of the rating. This is educational context, not personalized advice.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

The news wire contains five items, all tagged to NCDL:

A scheduled Q3 2026 earnings release and conference call (light: YELLOW).
A KBW "Hold" rating report (light: YELLOW).
A report of a new 52-week low (light: YELLOW). This is a risk watch item.
A scanx.trade notice that the Q3FY26 earnings release is set for Nov 3 (light: YELLOW).
A report of strong trading volume (light: YELLOW).
A report of a 2.62% gain to $10.77, described as sitting at range midpoint with bearish sentiment (light: GREEN, labeled CATALYST).

The earnings date is the nearest scheduled event. The 52-week-low report is the main risk item. The sole GREEN signal is the price-action report. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports supply chain as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

What is the reported revenue and operating income for NCDL, given that the financials show $0.0M for both across all three periods?
What explains the swing from $116.3M net income in FY 2024 to $65.6M in FY 2025, and what drove the move from negative to positive FCF?
What is the period-level cash and debt position, given that most balance-sheet fields are N/A?
What dividend policy or distribution history supports the 0% dividend yield versus the RQD rating's "Distribution Warning" label?
Which specific insider, 13F, and Congressional transactions produced the pillar scores of 5/20 and 12/20?

NCDL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NCDL Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 17h ago

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Schedules Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call

Yahoo Finance report covering Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE The Globe and Mail • 20h ago

KBW Remains a Hold on Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL)

The Globe and Mail report covering Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 23h ago

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NYSE:NCDL) Sets New 52-Week Low - Here's What Happened

MarketBeat report covering Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE scanx.trade • 1d ago

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending schedules Q3FY26 earnings release for Nov 3

scanx.trade report covering Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NYSE:NCDL) Sees Strong Trading Volume - Here's Why

MarketBeat report covering Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST https://www.siam.in/ • 1d ago

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL) Gains 2.62% to $10.77, Sitting at Range Midpoint - Bearish Sentiment

https://www.siam.in/ report covering Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE www.dars.gov.et • 1d ago

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL) Slips 1.43% to $11.02, Sitting Midway Between Support and Resistance - Percent Above MA

www.dars.gov.et report covering Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL) Projected to Release Earnings on Tuesday

MarketBeat report covering Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NCDL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $11.16?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NCDL 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $11.99 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is NCDL (D • RQD 50/100) a Buy at $11.10?

Welcome to the NCDL (Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 50/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Diversified Equities. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RE RedlineAuditor Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $9.10 (-18.0%)

Spot @ $11.10

Pump the brakes on NCDL — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on NCDL, but look at what you are paying: 8.4x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $13.99 (+26.0%)

Spot @ $11.10

NCDL cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on NCDL, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Diversified Equities and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $11.10 (52-wk range $10.31 - $15.07), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.