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Matrix Service Company (MTRX) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$9.31 -0.53% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.28

Matrix Service Company (MTRX) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 26/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $264.8M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MTRX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Matrix Service Company (NASDAQ: MTRX) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 26/100 at a spot price of $9.31 (-0.53% 1D, market cap $264.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MTRX ranks #927 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MTRX compare to PMA and PHOE in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Engineering & Construction), MTRX carries a Roarable E (26/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 5.2%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, PMA (PMA Graphene Technology Group Inc. (Class A)) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $211.9M) and PHOE (Phoenix Asia Holdings Limited) posts a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $361.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, LMB leads on earnings multiple (15.7x) while LMB leads on capital efficiency (21.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MTRX?
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Per MTRX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0000866273), Matrix Service Company generated $769.3M in revenue (+5.6% YoY), -$29.5M in net income, and $109.8M in free cash flow against $650.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.28 (-0.29%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 14.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (26/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510026
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Cash (9)Whales (3)SEC (5)Macro (4)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-14.4% Base Target
$17 Bull$8 Base$6 Bear
📬 FREE MTRX RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MTRX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (26/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MTRX SCORES 26/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (35% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 14.3% FCF Margin ($109.8M FCF) & 5.2% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+5/20 pts (19% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.25 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (39.8) create a -16 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
34
Grade E$10.56-4.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
31
Grade E$10.09-4.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
29
Grade E$9.67-3.7% Next Q
Current
26
Grade E$9.31-10.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (34) → E (26)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MTRX Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MTRX currently carries a cautious 26/100 (E) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($10.18) and Max Pain ($9.78) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $16.77.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MTRX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MTRX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 26%NO 74%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your MTRX Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $9.31: 1074.1 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $6.22
$6,681
$-3,319 (-33.2%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $7.97
$8,561
$-1,439 (-14.4%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $16.77
$18,013
+$8,013 (+80.1%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$874%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$1669%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$758%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MTRX)

  • ✓Walkthrough of MTRX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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MTRX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -30.57%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $9.87H $9.87L $9.31C $9.31VOL 398.6K
RES: $10.05SUP: $7.57SMA50: $10.18SMA200: $11.76
$14.63$13.18$11.72$10.26$8.81RES $10.05SUP $7.57$9.312026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MTRX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MTRX Butterfly Map → + Track MTRX →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MTRX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MTRX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MTRX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MTRX)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #927 of 1009 ⚔️ PMA vs MTRX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (MTRX vs. PMA, PHOE, BBCP, LMB)

Industry: Engineering & Construction (20 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Matrix Service Company (MTRX) ranks #927 by composite RQD confidence (26/100, grade E) and #657 by equity capitalization ($264.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, LMB leads on earnings valuation at 15.7x trailing P/E, while LMB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 21.2% ROIC and 26.2% gross margin. LMB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with MTRX at 26/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MTRX ACTIVE
Matrix Service Company
E 26/100 — 5.2% -35.0% -0.53% $264.8M Benchmark Subject
PMA
PMA Graphene Technology Group Inc. (Class A)
D 48/100 — -18.4% — +3.85% $211.9M /pma-vs-mtrx →
PHOE
Phoenix Asia Holdings Limited
E 30/100 — 4.6% — 0.00% $361.4M /phoe-vs-mtrx →
BBCP
Concrete Pumping Holdings Inc.
D 51/100 80.5x 42.4% 5.2% +2.25% $515.5M /bbcp-vs-mtrx →
LMB
Limbach Holdings Inc.
B- 71/100 15.7x 26.2% 21.2% -3.04% $577.2M /lmb-vs-mtrx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-06-30 • CIK 0000866273 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30), Matrix Service Company (MTRX) reported GAAP revenue of $769.3M (+5.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $728.2M , and -3.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$29.5M, operating cash flow of $117.5M, and free cash flow of $109.8M (+67.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, MTRX closed FY2025 with $650.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.25, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-06-30 $769.3M -$29.5M $117.5M $109.8M $650.2M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-06-30 $728.2M -$25.0M $72.6M $65.6M $513.8M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-06-30 $795.0M -$52.4M $10.2M $10.2M — —

3. MTRX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MTRX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Matrix Service Company (NASDAQ: MTRX) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 26/100 at a spot price of $9.31 (-0.53% 1D, market cap $264.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MTRX ranks #927 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MTRX compare to PMA and PHOE in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Engineering & Construction), MTRX carries a Roarable E (26/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 5.2%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, PMA (PMA Graphene Technology Group Inc. (Class A)) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $211.9M) and PHOE (Phoenix Asia Holdings Limited) posts a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $361.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, LMB leads on earnings multiple (15.7x) while LMB leads on capital efficiency (21.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MTRX?

Per MTRX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0000866273), Matrix Service Company generated $769.3M in revenue (+5.6% YoY), -$29.5M in net income, and $109.8M in free cash flow against $650.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MTRX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MTRX last traded at $9.31 (-0.53% on volume of 472,974 shares), positioning the stock -8.55% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.18) and -20.83% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.76). Across its 52-week range of $9.26 to $15.97, MTRX sits at the 0.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 39.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.7% ($8.59 to $10.03).

Direct Sub-Reports: MTRX RQD Cockpit MTRX 12M Forecast MTRX Earnings & Move MTRX Dividends & DRIP MTRX Insiders & 13F MTRX Whale Options MTRX Profit Sankey MTRX News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 26/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MTRX — Matrix Service Company: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-06-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Matrix Service Company (MTRX) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 26/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $9.31 (-0.53% 1D, market capitalization $264.8M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of 5.2%, operating margin of -4.6%, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (4/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (5/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.25, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Matrix Service Company (MTRX) is listed on NASDAQ and classified under the Consumer Discretionary sector and Engineering & Construction industry per the company profile. The profile identifies its market capitalization as $0.3B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-06-30), Matrix Service Company (MTRX) reported $769.3M in annual revenue (up from $728.2M in FY2024, +5.6% YoY) and -$29.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($795.0M revenue, -$52.4M net income) through FY2025, MTRX scaled operating cash flow to $117.5M and free cash flow to $109.8M, backed by $650.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 26/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $9.26 – $15.97 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -4.6% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists supply chain as NONE with an empty set of butterfly links and no proprietary signals. The source data therefore does not identify upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or cross-sector correlations for MTRX.

  • Key Question #1: Can MTRX sustain or expand its -4.6% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Engineering & Construction peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $769.3M and free cash flow of $109.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MTRX's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

MTRX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Matrix Service Company (MTRX) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MTRX Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MTRX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $9.31?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MTRX 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MTRX:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $10.76 (+15.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Reported free cash flow rose from $10.2M to $109.8M across the three filed periods, the one line in the data pointing toward cash-gener

Reported free cash flow rose from $10.2M to $109.8M across the three filed periods, the one line in the data pointing toward cash-generation recovery.. When you look under the hood at MTRX, Fundamental Cash Engine is 9/20 with 5.2% gross margins and -35.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (3/20) has been quietly accumulating below $15.97. My 12M target is $10.76.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@MidwestValue Agree on the RQD 26/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $9.36 and keeping dry powder in case we test $8.70.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $7.77 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $9.36

An Altman Z-Score of 1.25, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and ROIC of -35% together signal forensic balance-sheet and return-on-capital weak

Careful chasing MTRX at $9.36. An Altman Z-Score of 1.25, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and ROIC of -35% together signal forensic balance-sheet and return-on-capital weakness.. Gross margin is 5.2%, but operating margin is -4.6%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $7.77 on multiple compression.

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