Stock Ratings / Financials / MTB / options

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M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$220.72 -1.49% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $219.71

M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 60/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $31.88B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MTB Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MTB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, M&T Bank Corporation (NYSE: MTB) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $220.72 (-1.49% 1D, market cap $31.88B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MTB ranks #377 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MTB compare to HBAN and SHG in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), MTB carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.4%. By comparison, HBAN (Huntington Bancshares Incorporated) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 14.6x, ROIC 2.6%, cap $31.80B) and SHG (Shinhan Financial Group Co Ltd) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $30.79B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MTB leads on earnings multiple (11.4x) while SHG leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MTB?

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Per MTB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000036270), M&T Bank Corporation generated $1.66B in revenue (+7.5% YoY), $2.85B in net income, and $2.93B in free cash flow against $213.51B in total assets and $82.95B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $219.70 (-0.46%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 176.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.5% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MTB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (60/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MTB SCORES 60/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (47.7) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$216.05+1.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$219.51+0.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$220.20+0.2% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$220.72+0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (52) → C- (60)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MTB Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 60/100 (C-) score, MTB faces multiple-compression risk if 11.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($225.17) or 200D SMA ($225.24) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($222.71) toward Bear Floor ($173.71).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MTB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MTB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 60%NO 40%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±4.1%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (MTB)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for MTB.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating MTB & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on MTB
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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MTB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +3.10%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-03O $224.1H $224.1L $220.7C $220.7VOL 765.3K

RES: $229.0SUP: $203.6SMA50: $225.2SMA200: $225.2

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MTB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MTB Butterfly Map → + Track MTB →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

1.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MTB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MTB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MTB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MTB)

Financials Rank #377 of 1096 ⚔️ HBAN vs MTB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MTB vs. HBAN, SHG, NTRS, BBD)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) ranks #377 by composite RQD confidence (60/100, grade C-) and #87 by equity capitalization ($31.88B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MTB leads on earnings valuation at 11.4x trailing P/E, while SHG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.9% ROIC and — gross margin. NTRS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with MTB at 60/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MTB ACTIVE M&T Bank Corporation	C-	60/100	11.4x	—	3.4%	-1.49%	$31.88B	Benchmark Subject
HBAN Huntington Bancshares Incorporated	C-	61/100	14.6x	—	2.6%	-1.19%	$31.80B	/hban-vs-mtb →
SHG Shinhan Financial Group Co Ltd	D	51/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	-0.45%	$30.79B	/shg-vs-mtb →
NTRS Northern Trust Corporation	C+	66/100	18.2x	—	2.8%	-2.17%	$30.64B	/ntrs-vs-mtb →
BBD Banco Bradesco Sa	D+	52/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	-3.04%	$28.55B	/bbd-vs-mtb →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000036270

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) reported GAAP revenue of $1.66B (+7.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.54B , and +11.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $2.85B, operating cash flow of $3.00B, and free cash flow of $2.93B (-17.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, MTB closed FY2025 with $213.51B in total assets against $82.95B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.66B	$2.85B	$3.00B	$2.93B	$213.51B	$82.95B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.54B	$2.59B	$3.61B	$3.54B	$208.10B	$80.59B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.48B	$2.74B	$3.90B	$3.84B	$17.80B	$4.16B

3. MTB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MTB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does MTB compare to HBAN and SHG in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MTB?

Where is MTB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MTB last traded at $220.72 (-1.49% on volume of 765,329 shares), positioning the stock -1.98% below its 50-day simple moving average ($225.17) and -2.01% below its 200-day simple moving average ($225.24). Across its 52-week range of $179.75 to $255.95, MTB sits at the 53.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.1% ($211.67 to $229.77).

MTB Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is MTB's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for MTB.

Direct Sub-Reports: MTB RQD Cockpit MTB 12M Forecast MTB Earnings & Move MTB Dividends & DRIP MTB Insiders & 13F MTB Whale Options MTB Profit Sankey MTB News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 60/100 (C-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

MTB — M&T Bank Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:12:14Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, MTB scores 63 out of 100, a letter grade of C, with the verdict label "Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 10 of 20 (ROIC 3.4%; FCF yield 9.05%), Whale 13F Flow at 12 of 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 17 of 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 9 of 20 (Beta 1.11; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 15 of 20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 8/9; Debt/Equity 0.5).

For a prospective investor, the pillar mix describes a stock with a strong balance-sheet and insider-activity profile but a weaker return-on-capital and macro-fit profile. The insider-conviction and forensic balance-sheet pillars are the highest-scoring elements. The cash-engine and macro-regime pillars are the lowest, and they are the areas where valuation and sensitivity to the broader cycle matter most. The verdict label characterizes the risk-reward as balanced rather than clearly favorable. Upside drivers implied by the data are the strength of the forensic and insider signals; valuation tradeoffs center on a 3.4% ROIC set against a 9.05% FCF yield and an EV/EBITDA of 23.8; ripple effects from the beta of 1.11 mean the stock is expected to move more than the broader market in either direction. This is educational analysis, not personalized financial advice.

Snapshot

Price	Market Cap	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	EV/EBITDA	EPS (TTM)	Dividend Yield	Beta	52-Wk Range	ROIC %
224.07	$32.36B	11.4	10.6	23.8	19.74	2.78%	1.11	$179.75 - $255.95	3.4%

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$1657.0M	$3364.2M	$2851.0M	N/A	$2928.4M	N/A	$82949.9M
FY 2024	$1541.0M	$3053.8M	$2588.0M	N/A	$3540.7M	N/A	$80585.1M
FY 2023	$1484.0M	$3234.4M	$2741.0M	N/A	$3838.2M	N/A	$4164.6M

Per the market data, operating margin is 75%, net margin is 68%, gross margin is 0%, and ROIC is 3.4%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5, the Piotroski F-Score is 8 of 9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. Reported net income exceeds reported revenue in each period, and FCF declined from $3838.2M in FY 2023 to $2928.4M in FY 2025, while reported debt rose from $4164.6M to $82949.9M across the same periods. Balance-sheet posture is described by the forensic scores as sound; the reported debt series is not interpreted further here.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, the headlines relate to MTB: a Yahoo Finance report on Q3 earnings and revenues topping estimates (YELLOW), a TradingView report on a Q3 earnings beat on higher net interest income with the stock dipping on cost concerns (GREEN), a Seeking Alpha piece on the company holding up in a tough operating environment (YELLOW), a Yahoo Finance piece on earning $500 a month ahead of Q3 earnings (YELLOW), a Moomoo press release on quarterly preferred stock dividends (YELLOW), and a Seeking Alpha report that MTB beat Q3 estimates on lower-than-expected provisions (GREEN). Watch items implied by the headlines include the cost-related stock reaction and the operating-environment framing. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, there are no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

What are the company's specific products, customer segments, and revenue sources beyond its sector and industry classification?
Why does reported debt rise from $4164.6M in FY 2023 to $82949.9M in FY 2025, and is that series comparable across periods?
What drove the cost-related stock reaction referenced in the news feed, and what is the expense trajectory?
What are the EPS values for the reported fiscal periods, which the financials section lists as N/A?
Who are the specific insider, 13F, and Congressional holders behind the pillar scores, and what are the transaction details?

MTB Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MTB Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 17h ago

M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates

Yahoo Finance report covering M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST TradingView • 20h ago

M&T Bank Q3 Earnings Beat on Higher NII, Stock Dips on Cost Woes

TradingView report covering M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 23h ago

Consider M&T Bank As It Holds Up In A Tough Operating Environment (NYSE:MTB)

Seeking Alpha report covering M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

How To Earn $500 A Month From M&T Bank Stock Ahead Of Q3 Earnings

Yahoo Finance report covering M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Moomoo • 1d ago

Press Release: M&T Bank Corporation Announces Quarterly Preferred Stock Dividends

Moomoo report covering M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

M&T Bank beats Q3 estimates on lower-than-expected provisions (MTB:NYSE)

Seeking Alpha report covering M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

M&T Bank Corporation Estimates – NYSE:MTB

TradingView report covering M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

M&T Bank (MTB) Q3 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates

Yahoo Finance report covering M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MTB Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $220.72?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MTB 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $242.00 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is MTB (C • RQD 63/100) a Buy at $224.07?

Welcome to the MTB (M&T Bank Corporation) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 63/100 (Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward) in Major Banks. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $185.98 (-17.0%)

Spot @ $224.07

Pump the brakes on MTB — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on MTB, but look at what you are paying: 11.4x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless M&T Bank Corporation expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

AL AlphaFlow_Cap Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $280.09 (+25.0%)

Spot @ $224.07

MTB cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on MTB, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Major Banks and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $224.07 (52-wk range $179.75 - $255.95), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.