What is MTB's 12-month stock price target?

M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $226.45 (+0.9% from $224.43), with a bull-case target of $268.75 and a bear-case floor of $176.63.

Stock Ratings / Financials / MTB / forecast

HBAN (61) SHG (51) NTRS (66) BBD (52) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Q: Is MTB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates MTB C- (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 60/100.

$224.43 +1.68% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $224.68

M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 60/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $31.88B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MTB Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MTB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, M&T Bank Corporation (NYSE: MTB) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $224.43 (+1.68% 1D, market cap $31.88B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MTB ranks #377 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MTB compare to HBAN and SHG in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), MTB carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.4%. By comparison, HBAN (Huntington Bancshares Incorporated) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 14.6x, ROIC 2.6%, cap $31.80B) and SHG (Shinhan Financial Group Co Ltd) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $30.79B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MTB leads on earnings multiple (11.4x) while SHG leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MTB?

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Per MTB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000036270), M&T Bank Corporation generated $1.66B in revenue (+7.5% YoY), $2.85B in net income, and $2.93B in free cash flow against $213.51B in total assets and $82.95B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $224.68 (+0.11%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 176.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.5% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MTB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (60/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MTB SCORES 60/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (47.7) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$216.05+1.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$219.51+0.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$220.20+1.9% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$224.43+0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (52) → C- (60)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MTB Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 60/100 (C-) score, MTB faces multiple-compression risk if 11.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($225.17) or 200D SMA ($225.24) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($226.45) toward Bear Floor ($176.63).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MTB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MTB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 60%NO 40%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your MTB Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $224.43: 44.6 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $176.63

$7,870

$-2,130 (-21.3%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $226.45

$10,090

+$90 (+0.9%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $268.75

$11,975

+$1,975 (+19.7%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$236	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$253	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$202	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (MTB Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MTB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +4.83%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-03O $224.1H $224.4L $220.7C $224.4VOL 765.3K

RES: $229.0SUP: $203.6SMA50: $225.2SMA200: $225.2

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MTB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MTB Butterfly Map → + Track MTB →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

1.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MTB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MTB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MTB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MTB)

Financials Rank #377 of 1096 ⚔️ HBAN vs MTB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MTB vs. HBAN, SHG, NTRS, BBD)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) ranks #377 by composite RQD confidence (60/100, grade C-) and #87 by equity capitalization ($31.88B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MTB leads on earnings valuation at 11.4x trailing P/E, while SHG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.9% ROIC and — gross margin. NTRS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with MTB at 60/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MTB ACTIVE M&T Bank Corporation	C-	60/100	11.4x	—	3.4%	+1.68%	$31.88B	Benchmark Subject
HBAN Huntington Bancshares Incorporated	C-	61/100	14.6x	—	2.6%	+1.46%	$31.80B	/hban-vs-mtb →
SHG Shinhan Financial Group Co Ltd	D	51/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	-1.95%	$30.79B	/shg-vs-mtb →
NTRS Northern Trust Corporation	C+	66/100	18.2x	—	2.8%	+0.89%	$30.64B	/ntrs-vs-mtb →
BBD Banco Bradesco Sa	D+	52/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	+0.39%	$28.55B	/bbd-vs-mtb →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000036270

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) reported GAAP revenue of $1.66B (+7.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.54B , and +11.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $2.85B, operating cash flow of $3.00B, and free cash flow of $2.93B (-17.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, MTB closed FY2025 with $213.51B in total assets against $82.95B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.66B	$2.85B	$3.00B	$2.93B	$213.51B	$82.95B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.54B	$2.59B	$3.61B	$3.54B	$208.10B	$80.59B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.48B	$2.74B	$3.90B	$3.84B	$17.80B	$4.16B

3. MTB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MTB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does MTB compare to HBAN and SHG in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MTB?

Where is MTB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MTB last traded at $224.43 (+1.68% on volume of 741,255 shares), positioning the stock -0.33% below its 50-day simple moving average ($225.17) and -0.36% below its 200-day simple moving average ($225.24). Across its 52-week range of $179.75 to $255.95, MTB sits at the 58.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.1% ($215.23 to $233.63).

Direct Sub-Reports: MTB RQD Cockpit MTB 12M Forecast MTB Earnings & Move MTB Dividends & DRIP MTB Insiders & 13F MTB Whale Options MTB Profit Sankey MTB News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 60/100 (C-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MTB — M&T Bank Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 60/100, corresponding to a C- letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $224.43 (+1.68% 1D, market capitalization $31.88B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 3.4%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 75.0%, and free cash flow yield of 9.05%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (17/20): Incorporates a 1.11x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Major Banks industry..4B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) reported $1.66B in annual revenue (up from $1.54B in FY2024, +7.5% YoY) and $2.85B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.48B revenue, $2.74B net income) through FY2025, MTB scaled operating cash flow to $3.00B and free cash flow to $2.93B, backed by $213.51B in total assets against $82.95B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (C- • RQD 60/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $179.75 – $255.95 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 11.4x trailing P/E and 23.8x EV/EBITDA against 75.0% operating margins and a 1.11x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are therefore — The only sector context provided is the Financials / Major Banks classification and the beta of 1.11 from the market data.

Key Question #1: Can MTB sustain or expand its 75.0% operating margin and 3.4% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.66B and free cash flow of $2.93B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $82.95B in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is MTB's 10.6x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.11x)?

MTB Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MTB Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 21h ago

M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates

Yahoo Finance report covering M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST TradingView • 1d ago

M&T Bank Q3 Earnings Beat on Higher NII, Stock Dips on Cost Woes

TradingView report covering M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Consider M&T Bank As It Holds Up In A Tough Operating Environment (NYSE:MTB)

Seeking Alpha report covering M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

How To Earn $500 A Month From M&T Bank Stock Ahead Of Q3 Earnings

Yahoo Finance report covering M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Moomoo • 1d ago

Press Release: M&T Bank Corporation Announces Quarterly Preferred Stock Dividends

Moomoo report covering M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

M&T Bank beats Q3 estimates on lower-than-expected provisions (MTB:NYSE)

Seeking Alpha report covering M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

M&T Bank Corporation Estimates – NYSE:MTB

TradingView report covering M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

M&T Bank (MTB) Q3 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates

Yahoo Finance report covering M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MTB Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $224.43?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MTB 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $278.11 (+26.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction (17/20) and forensic balance-sheet strength (Piotroski F 8/9, Altman Z 2.5) are the highest-scoring elements of the

Long MTB at $220.72 targeting $278.11. Insider conviction (17/20) and forensic balance-sheet strength (Piotroski F 8/9, Altman Z 2.5) are the highest-scoring elements of the RQD rating.. Institutional whale score is 10/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $179.75 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Fair point on 11.4x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Major Banks. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $189.82 (-14.0%)

Spot @ $220.72

ROIC of 3.4% and a macro-regime fit score of 9/20 with beta 1.11 indicate weak return on capital and above-market sensitivity.

I respect the product at M&T Bank Corporation, but the stock at $220.72 is a different story. ROIC of 3.4% and a macro-regime fit score of 9/20 with beta 1.11 indicate weak return on capital and above-market sensitivity.. FCF yield is 9.05% and RQD sits at 60/100 (C-) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?