Stock Ratings / Technology / MRCY / earnings

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Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±8.8% Move

$77.54 -5.21% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $76.67

Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 60/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $4.98B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MRCY Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MRCY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Mercury Systems Inc (NASDAQ: MRCY) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $77.54 (-5.21% 1D, market cap $4.98B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, MRCY ranks #235 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MRCY compare to VSH and PLXS in the Technology sector?

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Within the Technology sector (Electrical Products), MRCY carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 21.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 14.9%. By comparison, VSH (Vishay Intertechnology Inc.) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.8%, cap $4.51B) and PLXS (Plexus Corp.) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 33.3x, ROIC 8.2%, cap $5.77B). Among the 5-stock peer group, OLED leads on earnings multiple (15.8x) while MRCY leads on capital efficiency (14.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MRCY?

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Per MRCY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-26, CIK 0001049521), Mercury Systems Inc generated $0 in revenue (-100.0% YoY), $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $2.50B in total assets and $469.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $76.66 (-1.13%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.5% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MRCY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (60/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MRCY SCORES 60/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.26 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$76.71-2.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$74.53+5.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$78.55-1.3% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$77.54+0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (52) → C- (60)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MRCY Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 60/100 (C-) score, MRCY faces multiple-compression risk if 21.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($81.62) or 200D SMA ($91.42) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($78.24) toward Bear Floor ($61.03).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MRCY• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MRCY Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 60%NO 40%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 25, 2026 (~52 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±8.8% Swing Band

±$6.82 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

MRCY Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 60/100

Trailing EPS: $3.77 • YoY Revenue Growth: 52.8%

Model Bullish Setup (60/100)Model Risk Weight (40/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-26	$0	$0	$0	52%
FY 2024	2025-06-27	$912.0M	-$37.9M	$119.0M	27.9%
FY 2023	2024-06-28	$835.3M	-$137.6M	$22.8M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating MRCY & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on MRCY
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MRCY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.26%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-02O $78.58H $81.80L $77.54C $77.54VOL 775.8K

RES: $91.42SUP: $65.99SMA50: $81.62SMA200: $91.42

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MRCY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MRCY Butterfly Map → + Track MRCY →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

15.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +52.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MRCY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MRCY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MRCY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MRCY)

Technology Rank #235 of 714 ⚔️ VSH vs MRCY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (MRCY vs. VSH, PLXS, OLED, TTMI)

Industry: Electrical Products (35 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) ranks #235 by composite RQD confidence (60/100, grade C-) and #215 by equity capitalization ($4.98B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OLED leads on earnings valuation at 15.8x trailing P/E, while MRCY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.9% ROIC and — gross margin. OLED currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 64/100 (C) compared with MRCY at 60/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MRCY ACTIVE Mercury Systems Inc	C-	60/100	21.7x	—	14.9%	-5.21%	$4.98B	Benchmark Subject
VSH Vishay Intertechnology Inc.	D-	43/100	—	19.4%	1.8%	-9.14%	$4.51B	/vsh-vs-mrcy →
PLXS Plexus Corp.	D+	55/100	33.3x	10.1%	8.2%	-3.86%	$5.77B	/plxs-vs-mrcy →
OLED Universal Display Corporation	C	64/100	15.8x	76.3%	11.5%	-1.15%	$3.82B	/oled-vs-mrcy →
TTMI TTM Technologies Inc.	D	44/100	52.0x	20.7%	9.6%	-5.35%	$9.23B	/ttmi-vs-mrcy →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-26 • CIK 0001049521

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-26), Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (-100.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $912.0M , and -100.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 (-100.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, MRCY closed FY2025 with $2.50B in total assets against $469.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.26, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-26	$0	$0	$0	$0	$2.50B	$469.0M
FY2024 (FY)	2025-06-27	$912.0M	-$37.9M	$138.9M	$119.0M	$2.40B	$423.5M
FY2023 (FY)	2024-06-28	$835.3M	-$137.6M	$60.4M	$22.8M	$2.74B	$640.8M

3. MRCY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MRCY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does MRCY compare to VSH and PLXS in the Technology sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MRCY?

Where is MRCY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MRCY last traded at $77.54 (-5.21% on volume of 543,700 shares), positioning the stock -5.00% below its 50-day simple moving average ($81.62) and -15.18% below its 200-day simple moving average ($91.42). Across its 52-week range of $65.04 to $128.45, MRCY sits at the 19.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.8% ($70.72 to $84.36).

MRCY Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is MRCY's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 25, 2026.

How much is MRCY stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±8.8% event move for MRCY, spanning a range between $70.72 and $84.36.

Direct Sub-Reports: MRCY RQD Cockpit MRCY 12M Forecast MRCY Earnings & Move MRCY Dividends & DRIP MRCY Insiders & 13F MRCY Whale Options MRCY Profit Sankey MRCY News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 60/100 (C-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

MRCY — Mercury Systems Inc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:20:56Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, MRCY scores 60 out of 100, a letter grade of C-, with the verdict "Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 (ROIC 14.9%; FCF yield 3.99%), Whale 13F Flow at 9/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 16/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 10/20 (Beta 1.33; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 16/20 (Altman Z 4.26; Piotroski F 9/9; Debt/Equity 0.3).

The weakest pillars are Cash Engine and Macro Regime Fit, each scoring roughly half their maximum. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the cash-generation pillar is held back by a modest 3.99% FCF yield relative to the stock's valuation, and the macro pillar by a Beta of 1.33, which signals above-market price sensitivity. The strongest pillars are Forensic Balance Sheet and Insider Conviction, which indicate low financial-distress risk and recent insider buying activity. Investor implication: the upside case rests on balance-sheet resilience and insider signaling, while the valuation tradeoff is a 21.7 trailing P/E against a thin FCF yield, and the stock's volatility could amplify moves in either direction. This analysis is educational and not personalized financial advice.

Snapshot

Price	Market Cap	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	EV/EBITDA	EPS (TTM)	Dividend Yield	Beta	52-Wk Range	ROIC %
81.8	$4.98B	21.7	18.2	14.6	3.77	0%	1.33	$65.04 - $128.45	14.9%

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$0.0M	$0.0M	$0.0M	N/A	$0.0M	$335.0M	$469.0M
FY 2024	$912.0M	$-19.6M	$-37.9M	N/A	$119.0M	$242.6M	$423.5M
FY 2023	$835.3M	$-147.8M	$-137.6M	N/A	$22.8M	N/A	$640.8M

Per the SEC financials, reported operating and net income were negative in FY 2023 and FY 2024, though the operating margin in market data is shown at 21.1% and net margin at 16.4%, which the source does not reconcile with the periods shown. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 14.9%, the Altman Z-Score is 4.26, and the Piotroski F-Score is 9/9. Debt/Equity is 0.3. Reported debt declined from $640.8M in FY 2023 to $423.5M in FY 2024 and then rose to $469.0M in FY 2025, while reported cash moved from $242.6M to $335.0M over the same span. The FY 2025 revenue and income figures are recorded as $0.0M, which the source does not explain.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news wire, six items were recorded, all flagged YELLOW. Headlines reference a Yahoo Finance report on the RES One Edge platform and its effect on the investment story, a TradingView estimates page, a Yahoo Finance piece titled around budget uncertainty weighing on Q3, a MarketBeat report describing a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating, a Stock Titan filing report on a director receiving 2,348 stock units, and a Simply Wall St valuation article questioning whether the stock is overvalued on sales. Risk watch items per these headlines include budget uncertainty and valuation debate. Proprietary signals: none are recorded in the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph.

Open Questions

What explains the FY 2025 revenue, operating income, and net income figures of $0.0M, and does the filing contain restated or pending values?
How do the 21.1% operating margin and 16.4% net margin in market data reconcile with negative reported operating and net income in FY 2023 and FY 2024?
What are the company's principal products, customers, and revenue drivers, given that the source describes only its sector and industry?
What is the source and timing of the "Budget Uncertainty" risk referenced in the news, and how would it affect revenue?
What is the composition and size of the insider and institutional buying behind the Insider Conviction and Whale Flow pillars?

MRCY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MRCY Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 14h ago

How Mercury’s New RES One Edge Platform At Mercury Systems (MRCY) Has Changed Its Investment Story

Yahoo Finance report covering Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 17h ago

Mercury Systems Inc Estimates – NASDAQ:MRCY

TradingView report covering Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 20h ago

Budget Uncertainty Weighed on Mercury Systems (MRCY) in Q3

Yahoo Finance report covering Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 23h ago

Mercury Systems Inc (NASDAQ:MRCY) Stock Now Rated "Moderate Buy" by Wall Street Analysts

MarketBeat report covering Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

Director gets 2,348 stock units at Mercury Systems (MRCY), reports holdings of 29,620 shares.

Stock Titan report covering Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Is Mercury Systems (MRCY) Overvalued Based On Its Sales?

Simply Wall St report covering Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Allient, Bel Fuse, Ducommun, Mercury Systems, and FuelCell Energy shares skyrocket, what you need to know

Yahoo Finance report covering Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

Rugged server delivery typically takes 6-12 months. Mercury's RES One targets shorter delivery times.

Stock Titan report covering Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MRCY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $77.54?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MRCY 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $88.34 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is MRCY (C- • RQD 60/100) a Buy at $81.80?

Welcome to the MRCY (Mercury Systems Inc) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 60/100 (Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral) in Electrical Products. Bulls point to capital efficiency (14.9% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $63.80 (-22.0%)

Spot @ $81.80

Pump the brakes on MRCY — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on MRCY, but look at what you are paying: 21.7x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Mercury Systems Inc expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

DE DeltaGamma_99 Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $98.16 (+20.0%)

Spot @ $81.80

MRCY cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on MRCY, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Electrical Products and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $81.80 (52-wk range $65.04 - $128.45), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.