Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$77.54 -5.21% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $76.67

Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 60/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $4.98B
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MRCY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Mercury Systems Inc (NASDAQ: MRCY) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $77.54 (-5.21% 1D, market cap $4.98B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, MRCY ranks #235 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MRCY compare to VSH and PLXS in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (Electrical Products), MRCY carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 21.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 14.9%. By comparison, VSH (Vishay Intertechnology Inc.) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.8%, cap $4.51B) and PLXS (Plexus Corp.) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 33.3x, ROIC 8.2%, cap $5.77B). Among the 5-stock peer group, OLED leads on earnings multiple (15.8x) while MRCY leads on capital efficiency (14.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MRCY?
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Per MRCY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-26, CIK 0001049521), Mercury Systems Inc generated $0 in revenue (-100.0% YoY), $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $2.50B in total assets and $469.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $76.66 (-1.13%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.5% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
025507510060
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C
Cash (9)Whales (9)SEC (16)Macro (10)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.9% Base Target
$135 Bull$78 Base$61 Bear
📬 FREE MRCY RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MRCY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (60/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MRCY SCORES 60/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.26 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
52
Grade C-$76.71-2.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
55
Grade C$74.53+5.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
57
Grade C$78.55-1.3% Next Q
Current
60
Grade C-$77.54+0.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (52) → C- (60)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MRCY Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 60/100 (C-) score, MRCY faces multiple-compression risk if 21.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($81.62) or 200D SMA ($91.42) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($78.24) toward Bear Floor ($61.03).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MRCY• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MRCY Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
5430 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
4.26>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
9 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE20% OF RANGE
L: $65$77.54H: $128
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 9 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 26 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on MRCY

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (45)

14.9% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 3.99% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BULLISH (80)

Altman-Z 4.26 and Piotroski 9/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
NEUTRAL (58)

25/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like MRCY
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
  • ✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
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Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (MRCY Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
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RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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MRCY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.26%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $78.58H $81.80L $77.54C $77.54VOL 775.8K
RES: $91.42SUP: $65.99SMA50: $81.62SMA200: $91.42
$132.4$115.9$99.46$82.98$66.49RES $91.42SUP $65.99$77.542026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MRCY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
15.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +52.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MRCY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MRCY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MRCY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MRCY)

Technology Rank #235 of 714 ⚔️ VSH vs MRCY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (MRCY vs. VSH, PLXS, OLED, TTMI)

Industry: Electrical Products (35 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) ranks #235 by composite RQD confidence (60/100, grade C-) and #215 by equity capitalization ($4.98B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OLED leads on earnings valuation at 15.8x trailing P/E, while MRCY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.9% ROIC and — gross margin. OLED currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 64/100 (C) compared with MRCY at 60/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MRCY ACTIVE
Mercury Systems Inc
C- 60/100 21.7x — 14.9% -5.21% $4.98B Benchmark Subject
VSH
Vishay Intertechnology Inc.
D- 43/100 — 19.4% 1.8% -9.14% $4.51B /vsh-vs-mrcy →
PLXS
Plexus Corp.
D+ 55/100 33.3x 10.1% 8.2% -3.86% $5.77B /plxs-vs-mrcy →
OLED
Universal Display Corporation
C 64/100 15.8x 76.3% 11.5% -1.15% $3.82B /oled-vs-mrcy →
TTMI
TTM Technologies Inc.
D 44/100 52.0x 20.7% 9.6% -5.35% $9.23B /ttmi-vs-mrcy →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-26 • CIK 0001049521

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-26), Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (-100.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $912.0M , and -100.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 (-100.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, MRCY closed FY2025 with $2.50B in total assets against $469.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.26, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-26 $0 $0 $0 $0 $2.50B $469.0M
FY2024 (FY) 2025-06-27 $912.0M -$37.9M $138.9M $119.0M $2.40B $423.5M
FY2023 (FY) 2024-06-28 $835.3M -$137.6M $60.4M $22.8M $2.74B $640.8M

3. MRCY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MRCY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Mercury Systems Inc (NASDAQ: MRCY) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $77.54 (-5.21% 1D, market cap $4.98B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, MRCY ranks #235 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MRCY compare to VSH and PLXS in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Electrical Products), MRCY carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 21.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 14.9%. By comparison, VSH (Vishay Intertechnology Inc.) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.8%, cap $4.51B) and PLXS (Plexus Corp.) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 33.3x, ROIC 8.2%, cap $5.77B). Among the 5-stock peer group, OLED leads on earnings multiple (15.8x) while MRCY leads on capital efficiency (14.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MRCY?

Per MRCY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-26, CIK 0001049521), Mercury Systems Inc generated $0 in revenue (-100.0% YoY), $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $2.50B in total assets and $469.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MRCY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MRCY last traded at $77.54 (-5.21% on volume of 543,700 shares), positioning the stock -5.00% below its 50-day simple moving average ($81.62) and -15.18% below its 200-day simple moving average ($91.42). Across its 52-week range of $65.04 to $128.45, MRCY sits at the 19.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.8% ($70.72 to $84.36).

MRCY Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell MRCY stock right now?

Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold — HOLD) with 60/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (15% return on capital), mixed timing at 22x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is MRCY's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

MRCY's 12-month base price target is $78.24 (range $61.03 to $134.87), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 60/100 (C-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

MRCY — Mercury Systems Inc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:20:56Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, MRCY scores 60 out of 100, a letter grade of C-, with the verdict "Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 (ROIC 14.9%; FCF yield 3.99%), Whale 13F Flow at 9/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 16/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 10/20 (Beta 1.33; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 16/20 (Altman Z 4.26; Piotroski F 9/9; Debt/Equity 0.3).

The weakest pillars are Cash Engine and Macro Regime Fit, each scoring roughly half their maximum. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the cash-generation pillar is held back by a modest 3.99% FCF yield relative to the stock's valuation, and the macro pillar by a Beta of 1.33, which signals above-market price sensitivity. The strongest pillars are Forensic Balance Sheet and Insider Conviction, which indicate low financial-distress risk and recent insider buying activity. Investor implication: the upside case rests on balance-sheet resilience and insider signaling, while the valuation tradeoff is a 21.7 trailing P/E against a thin FCF yield, and the stock's volatility could amplify moves in either direction. This analysis is educational and not personalized financial advice.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
81.8$4.98B21.718.214.63.770%1.33$65.04 - $128.4514.9%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$0.0M$0.0M$0.0MN/A$0.0M$335.0M$469.0M
FY 2024$912.0M$-19.6M$-37.9MN/A$119.0M$242.6M$423.5M
FY 2023$835.3M$-147.8M$-137.6MN/A$22.8MN/A$640.8M

Per the SEC financials, reported operating and net income were negative in FY 2023 and FY 2024, though the operating margin in market data is shown at 21.1% and net margin at 16.4%, which the source does not reconcile with the periods shown. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 14.9%, the Altman Z-Score is 4.26, and the Piotroski F-Score is 9/9. Debt/Equity is 0.3. Reported debt declined from $640.8M in FY 2023 to $423.5M in FY 2024 and then rose to $469.0M in FY 2025, while reported cash moved from $242.6M to $335.0M over the same span. The FY 2025 revenue and income figures are recorded as $0.0M, which the source does not explain.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news wire, six items were recorded, all flagged YELLOW. Headlines reference a Yahoo Finance report on the RES One Edge platform and its effect on the investment story, a TradingView estimates page, a Yahoo Finance piece titled around budget uncertainty weighing on Q3, a MarketBeat report describing a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating, a Stock Titan filing report on a director receiving 2,348 stock units, and a Simply Wall St valuation article questioning whether the stock is overvalued on sales. Risk watch items per these headlines include budget uncertainty and valuation debate. Proprietary signals: none are recorded in the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph.

Open Questions

  • What explains the FY 2025 revenue, operating income, and net income figures of $0.0M, and does the filing contain restated or pending values?
  • How do the 21.1% operating margin and 16.4% net margin in market data reconcile with negative reported operating and net income in FY 2023 and FY 2024?
  • What are the company's principal products, customers, and revenue drivers, given that the source describes only its sector and industry?
  • What is the source and timing of the "Budget Uncertainty" risk referenced in the news, and how would it affect revenue?
  • What is the composition and size of the insider and institutional buying behind the Insider Conviction and Whale Flow pillars?

MRCY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MRCY Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MRCY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $77.54?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MRCY 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MRCY:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $88.34 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is MRCY (C- • RQD 60/100) a Buy at $81.80?

Welcome to the MRCY (Mercury Systems Inc) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 60/100 (Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral) in Electrical Products. Bulls point to capital efficiency (14.9% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $63.80 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $81.80

Pump the brakes on MRCY — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on MRCY, but look at what you are paying: 21.7x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Mercury Systems Inc expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

DE DeltaGamma_99 Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $98.16 (+20.0%)
Spot @ $81.80

MRCY cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on MRCY, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Electrical Products and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $81.80 (52-wk range $65.04 - $128.45), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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