How profitable is Macy's Inc (M)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), M converted $21.8B of revenue into a 38% gross margin, 4.7% operating margin, and $1.1B in free cash flow (4.9% FCF margin).

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / M / financials

OLLI (75) PSMT (63) MNSO (49) FIVE (75) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Macy's Inc (M) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$24.33 +0.91% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $24.43

Macy's Inc (M) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 74/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (38.0% gross margin, 12% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $6.30B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on M Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is M stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Macy's Inc (NYSE: M) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 74/100 at a spot price of $24.33 (+0.91% 1D, market cap $6.30B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, M ranks #75 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does M compare to OLLI and PSMT in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Department/Specialty Retail Stores), M carries a Roarable B (74/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.1x, gross margin of 38.0%, and ROIC of 11.8%. By comparison, OLLI (Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc.) holds a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 22.8x, ROIC 11.3%, cap $5.36B) and PSMT (PriceSmart Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 34.5x, ROIC 14.8%, cap $5.12B). Among the 5-stock peer group, M leads on earnings multiple (10.1x) while PSMT leads on capital efficiency (14.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for M?

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Per M's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31, CIK 0000794367), Macy's Inc generated $21.76B in revenue (-2.4% YoY), $642.0M in net income, and $1.06B in free cash flow against $16.24B in total assets and $3.80B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (38.0% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $24.43 (+0.40%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 4.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 74/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.4% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw A- · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+7.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for M)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (74/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY M SCORES 74/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 4.9% FCF Margin ($1.06B FCF) & 38% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (54.7) create a -9 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B-$22.68+3.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$23.43+1.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B$23.74+2.5% Next Q

Current

Grade B$24.33+7.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B- (66) → B (74)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the M Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 74/100 (B) score, M faces multiple-compression risk if 10.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 35.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($22.89) or 200D SMA ($21.70) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($26.08) toward Bear Floor ($19.95).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $M• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “M Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 30, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 74%NO 26%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How M Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$1.06B (4.9% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $23.09B

FY24

Rev $22.29B

FY25

Rev $21.76B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$21.76B	38%	4.7%	$642.0M	$1.06B	11%
FY 2024	$22.29B	38.4%	4.1%	$582.0M	$760.0M	10.1%
FY 2023	$23.09B	38%	1.3%	$45.0M	$265.9M	1.4%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring M)

✓Walkthrough of M's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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M // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +27.25%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-03O $24.72H $24.72L $24.11C $24.33VOL 5.56M

RES: $25.19SUP: $17.46SMA50: $22.89SMA200: $21.70

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

M Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 M Butterfly Map → + Track M →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

-1.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -2.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on M today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for M. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for M today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (M)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #75 of 1009 ⚔️ OLLI vs M Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (M vs. OLLI, PSMT, MNSO, FIVE)

Industry: Department/Specialty Retail Stores (11 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Macy's Inc (M) ranks #75 by composite RQD confidence (74/100, grade B) and #230 by equity capitalization ($6.30B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, M leads on earnings valuation at 10.1x trailing P/E, while PSMT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.8% ROIC and 17.4% gross margin. OLLI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with M at 74/100 (B).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
M ACTIVE Macy's Inc	B	74/100	10.1x	38.0%	11.8%	+0.91%	$6.30B	Benchmark Subject
OLLI Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc.	B	75/100	22.8x	40.5%	11.3%	-1.46%	$5.36B	/olli-vs-m →
PSMT PriceSmart Inc.	C	63/100	34.5x	17.4%	14.8%	+0.65%	$5.12B	/psmt-vs-m →
MNSO MINISO Group Holding Limited each representing four	D	49/100	—	—	—	+1.86%	$3.17B	/mnso-vs-m →
FIVE Five Below Inc.	B	75/100	37.7x	36.0%	13.8%	-0.82%	$13.27B	/five-vs-m →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-31 • CIK 0000794367 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31), Macy's Inc (M) reported GAAP revenue of $21.76B (-2.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $22.29B , and -5.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $642.0M, operating cash flow of $1.43B, and free cash flow of $1.06B (+39.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, M closed FY2025 with $16.24B in total assets against $3.80B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.81, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-01-31	$21.76B	$642.0M	$1.43B	$1.06B	$16.24B	$3.80B
FY2024 (FY)	2025-02-01	$22.29B	$582.0M	$1.28B	$760.0M	$16.40B	$3.84B
FY2023 (FY)	2024-02-03	$23.09B	$45.0M	$1.30B	$265.9M	$27.71B	$6.48B

3. M Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is M stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does M compare to OLLI and PSMT in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for M?

Where is M trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

M last traded at $24.33 (+0.91% on volume of 5,731,465 shares), positioning the stock +6.29% above its 50-day simple moving average ($22.89) and +12.12% above its 200-day simple moving average ($21.70). Across its 52-week range of $16.69 to $26.59, M sits at the 77.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.0% ($22.38 to $26.28).

Direct Sub-Reports: M RQD Cockpit M 12M Forecast M Earnings & Move M Dividends & DRIP M Insiders & 13F M Whale Options M Profit Sankey M News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 74/100 (B) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

M — Macy's Inc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2026-01-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Macy's Inc (M) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 74/100, corresponding to a B letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $24.33 (+0.91% 1D, market capitalization $6.30B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (16/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 11.8%, gross margin of 38.0%, operating margin of 4.7%, and free cash flow yield of 16.37%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (16/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 0.95x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.81, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.67x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Macy's Inc (M) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, within the Department/Specialty Retail Stores industry. The profile identifies the company by sector, industry, and exchange only.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-01-31), Macy's Inc (M) reported $21.76B in annual revenue (up from $22.29B in FY2024, -2.4% YoY) and $642.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($23.09B revenue, $45.0M net income) through FY2025, M scaled operating cash flow to $1.43B and free cash flow to $1.06B, backed by $16.24B in total assets against $3.80B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (B • RQD 74/100): Strong cash generator (38.0% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 16/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 16/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $16.69 – $26.59 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 10.1x trailing P/E and 6.3x EV/EBITDA against 4.7% operating margins and a 0.95x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are therefore — A prospective investor should note that the absence of graph data is not evidence of an absence of ripple effects.

Key Question #1: Can M sustain or expand its 4.7% operating margin and 11.8% ROIC against Department/Specialty Retail Stores peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $21.76B and free cash flow of $1.06B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $3.80B in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is M's 9.4x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.95x)?

M Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Macy's Inc (M) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to M Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 21h ago

3 Reasons to Sell M and 1 Stock to Buy Instead

Yahoo Finance report covering Macy's Inc (M) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Macy's (M) Ascends While Market Falls: Some Facts to Note

Yahoo Finance report covering Macy's Inc (M) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE 24/7 Wall St. • 1d ago

Macy’s vs. American Eagle: One Dividend Is Growing, the Other Is Standing Still

24/7 Wall St. report covering Macy's Inc (M) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE GuruFocus • 1d ago

Macy's Inc (M) Stock Up 4.1% but GF Value Says Overvalued -- GF Score: 70/100

GuruFocus report covering Macy's Inc (M) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Finviz • 1d ago

Macy's, Inc. Board of Directors Declares Quarterly Dividend

Finviz report covering Macy's Inc (M) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Macy's Inc Estimates – NYSE:M

TradingView report covering Macy's Inc (M) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Macy's, Inc. $M Shares Newly Purchased by Monument Capital Management

MarketBeat report covering Macy's Inc (M) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Macy's Shows Huge, Unusual Put Option Volume - Is M Stock Set to Drop or Is It Cheap Here?

Yahoo Finance report covering Macy's Inc (M) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

M Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $24.33?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON M 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $30.86 (+28.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Cash generation and a sound balance sheet support a 75 RQD score with a 16.37% FCF yield against a 6.3 EV/EBITDA multiple.

Picked up a starter position in M in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $24.11. Cash generation and a sound balance sheet support a 75 RQD score with a 16.37% FCF yield against a 6.3 EV/EBITDA multiple.. Trading inside a $16.69–$26.59 52-week range with 16.37% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Department/Specialty Retail Stores multiples expand this quarter.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@ForensicBear Shorting a 16/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $24.11 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $18.08 (-25.0%)

Spot @ $24.11

Thin margins (2.9% net) and a Macro Regime Fit score of 11/20 leave the stock exposed to sector and macro headwinds.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on M: Thin margins (2.9% net) and a Macro Regime Fit score of 11/20 leave the stock exposed to sector and macro headwinds.. At 10.1x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Department/Specialty Retail Stores triggers a 12-15% air pocket.