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Lycia Therapeutics Inc. (LYCA) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$27.18 +2.96% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $27.27

Lycia Therapeutics Inc. (LYCA) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 54/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.38B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is LYCA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Lycia Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: LYCA) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 54/100 at a spot price of $27.18 (+2.96% 1D, market cap $1.38B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, LYCA ranks #217 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does LYCA compare to TSHA and IMCR in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), LYCA carries a Roarable D+ (54/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, TSHA (Taysha Gene Therapies Inc.) holds a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.35B) and IMCR (Immunocore Holdings plc) posts a E grade (22/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.57B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NVAX leads on earnings multiple (3.9x) while NVAX leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LYCA?
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For Lycia Therapeutics Inc. (LYCA), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity and sector rank #217 in Health Care, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $27.27 (+0.34%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 54/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510054
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+
Cash (12)Whales (10)SEC (13)Macro (10)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.8% Base Target
$31 Bull$27 Base$21 Bear
📬 FREE LYCA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for LYCA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (54/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY LYCA SCORES 54/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL Trailing 12 Months: 1% FCF Margin ($38.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 11 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
46
Grade D$24.73+3.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
49
Grade D$25.55+1.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
51
Grade C-$25.82+5.3% Next Q
Current
54
Grade D+$27.18-0.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (46) → D+ (54)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a LYCA Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While LYCA currently carries a cautious 54/100 (D+) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (9/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($25.43) and Max Pain ($28.54) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $31.49.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $LYCA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “LYCA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 54%NO 46%Trade / Inspect Odds →
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • Trailing 12 Months

How LYCA Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$38.5M (1% FCF Margin)
Revenue$4.00BGross Profit $2.08B (52%)Cost of Sales $1.92BOp Profit $1.08B (27%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $998.4MNet Profit$865.3M (21.6%)Tax/Other $216.3M
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring LYCA)

  • ✓Walkthrough of LYCA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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LYCA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +0.37%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $27.61H $27.94L $27.47C $27.18VOL 18.50M
RES: $28.63SUP: $26.79SMA50: $25.43SMA200: $26.64
$28.74$27.84$26.94$26.05$25.15RES $28.63SUP $26.79$27.182026-09-042026-09-192026-10-042026-10-192026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

LYCA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 LYCA Butterfly Map → + Track LYCA →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LYCA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for LYCA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for LYCA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (LYCA)

Health Care Rank #217 of 1015 ⚔️ TSHA vs LYCA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (LYCA vs. TSHA, IMCR, VOR, NVAX)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Lycia Therapeutics Inc. (LYCA) ranks #217 by composite RQD confidence (54/100, grade D+) and #309 by equity capitalization ($1.38B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NVAX leads on earnings valuation at 3.9x trailing P/E, while NVAX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 93.5% gross margin. LYCA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 54/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
LYCA ACTIVE
Lycia Therapeutics Inc.
D+ 54/100 — — — +2.96% $1.38B Benchmark Subject
TSHA
Taysha Gene Therapies Inc.
E 31/100 — — -35.0% -3.15% $1.35B /tsha-vs-lyca →
IMCR
Immunocore Holdings plc
E 22/100 — 96.0% -35.0% -2.30% $1.57B /imcr-vs-lyca →
VOR
Vor Biopharma Inc.
D- 42/100 — — -35.0% -2.18% $1.16B /vor-vs-lyca →
NVAX
Novavax Inc.
D 49/100 3.9x 93.5% 85.0% -5.46% $1.66B /nvax-vs-lyca →

2. LYCA Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

Lycia Therapeutics Inc. (LYCA) operates in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (Health Care) with an equity capitalization of $1.38B, trailing P/E of N/A, forward P/E of N/A, and EV/EBITDA of N/A. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of —, net profit margin of —, ROIC of —, and free cash flow yield of —, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of N/A.

3. LYCA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is LYCA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Lycia Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: LYCA) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 54/100 at a spot price of $27.18 (+2.96% 1D, market cap $1.38B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, LYCA ranks #217 in composite RQD confidence.

How does LYCA compare to TSHA and IMCR in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), LYCA carries a Roarable D+ (54/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, TSHA (Taysha Gene Therapies Inc.) holds a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.35B) and IMCR (Immunocore Holdings plc) posts a E grade (22/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.57B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NVAX leads on earnings multiple (3.9x) while NVAX leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LYCA?

For Lycia Therapeutics Inc. (LYCA), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity and sector rank #217 in Health Care, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is LYCA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

LYCA last traded at $27.18 (+2.96% on volume of 270,810 shares), positioning the stock +6.88% above its 50-day simple moving average ($25.43) and +2.03% above its 200-day simple moving average ($26.64). Across its 52-week range of $23.58 to $29.68, LYCA sits at the 59.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 69.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.2% ($26.04 to $28.32).

Direct Sub-Reports: LYCA RQD Cockpit LYCA 12M Forecast LYCA Earnings & Move LYCA Dividends & DRIP LYCA Insiders & 13F LYCA Whale Options LYCA Profit Sankey LYCA News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 54/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

LYCA — Lycia Therapeutics Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-11-03

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Lycia Therapeutics Inc. (LYCA) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 54/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $27.18 (+2.96% 1D, market capitalization $1.38B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of —, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of N/A, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Lycia Therapeutics Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) industry. It carries a market capitalization of $1.4B. — for specific products, customers, or revenue model details.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 54/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 10/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $23.58 – $29.68 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— for upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or sector co-movers. Watch items for a prospective investor are limited to the sector and industry classification itself, and the post-IPO period's capital-raising activity as disclosed in the news wire.

  • Key Question #1: Can LYCA sustain or expand its — operating margin and — ROIC against Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Will free cash flow conversion (— FCF yield) strengthen balance-sheet liquidity (Altman Z-Score N/A) toward the $29.68 52-week high?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is LYCA's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

LYCA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Lycia Therapeutics Inc. (LYCA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to LYCA Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

LYCA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $27.18?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON LYCA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on LYCA:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $34.32 (+30.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The forensic balance sheet (Altman Z 2.5, Piotroski F 6/9, Debt/Equity 0.5) and institutional flow inputs support the rating despite ze

Here is why I am bullish on LYCA here at $26.40: The forensic balance sheet (Altman Z 2.5, Piotroski F 6/9, Debt/Equity 0.5) and institutional flow inputs support the rating despite zero reported cash returns.. Compare LYCA's 0.0% operating margin and 0.0% ROIC against the rest of Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances). As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $25.08 are getting bought.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Shorting a 10/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $26.40 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Health Care.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $21.91 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $26.40

With ROIC at 0%, FCF yield at 0%, and insider conviction scoring only 9 of 20, the stock lacks demonstrated cash generation and insider

Careful chasing LYCA at $26.40. With ROIC at 0%, FCF yield at 0%, and insider conviction scoring only 9 of 20, the stock lacks demonstrated cash generation and insider backing.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 0.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $21.91 on multiple compression.

LIVE TAPE SPY $752.10 -1.80% QQQ $681.09 -3.60% DIA $519.34 -1.08% IWM $279.14 -1.68% NVDA $202.06 -1.26% AAPL $338.32 -1.83% MSFT $507.12 -2.83% TSLA $403.82 +1.00% PLTR $178.34 -3.13% SOFI $16.60 -0.95% IBIT $43.35 -5.42% GLD $361.65 -3.59%