Joby Aviation Inc. (JOBY) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±10.2% Move

$4.90 -3.54% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.86

Joby Aviation Inc. (JOBY) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 38/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $5.05B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is JOBY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Joby Aviation Inc. (NYSE: JOBY) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $4.90 (-3.54% 1D, market cap $5.05B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, JOBY ranks #355 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does JOBY compare to BETA and AIR in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Aerospace), JOBY carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, BETA (Beta Technologies Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $4.81B) and AIR (AAR Corp.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 22.4x, ROIC 12.0%, cap $4.20B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AIR leads on earnings multiple (22.4x) while AIR leads on capital efficiency (12.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JOBY?
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Per JOBY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001819848), Joby Aviation Inc. generated $53.4M in revenue (+39183.1% YoY), -$929.8M in net income, and -$563.8M in free cash flow against $1.80B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.86 (-0.83%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (38/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510038
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Cash (9)Whales (5)SEC (14)Macro (4)CEO (6)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9% Base Target
$18 Bull$4 Base$3 Bear
📬 FREE JOBY RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for JOBY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (38/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY JOBY SCORES 38/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (37% of score)

Altman Z-Score 5.32 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (43.9) create a -16 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
46
Grade D$4.95-6.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
43
Grade D$4.65+7.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
41
Grade D$5.01-2.2% Next Q
Current
38
Grade D-$4.90-7.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (46) → D- (38)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a JOBY Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While JOBY currently carries a cautious 38/100 (D-) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.84) and Max Pain ($5.15) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $17.96.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $JOBY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “JOBY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±10.2% Swing Band

±$0.50 Expected Swing
$4.40 (-10.2%)Spot $4.90$5.40 (+10.2%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

JOBY Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 38/100

Trailing EPS: $-0.94 • YoY Revenue Growth: 180%

Model Bullish Setup (38/100)Model Risk Weight (62/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$53.4M-$929.8M-$563.8M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$136.0K-$608.0M-$476.9M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$1.0M-$513.0M-$313.9M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring JOBY)

  • ✓Walkthrough of JOBY's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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JOBY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -44.70%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $5.08H $5.08L $4.90C $4.90VOL 16.75M
RES: $5.02SUP: $3.92SMA50: $5.84SMA200: $8.52
$14.10$11.48$8.86$6.24$3.62RES $5.02SUP $3.92$4.902026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

JOBY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
11.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +180.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on JOBY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for JOBY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for JOBY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (JOBY)

Industrials Rank #355 of 485 ⚔️ BETA vs JOBY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (JOBY vs. BETA, AIR, AVAV, ACHR)

Industry: Aerospace (31 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Joby Aviation Inc. (JOBY) ranks #355 by composite RQD confidence (38/100, grade D-) and #143 by equity capitalization ($5.05B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AIR leads on earnings valuation at 22.4x trailing P/E, while AIR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.0% ROIC and 18.8% gross margin. AIR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 50/100 (D) compared with JOBY at 38/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
JOBY ACTIVE
Joby Aviation Inc.
D- 38/100 — — -35.0% -3.54% $5.05B Benchmark Subject
BETA
Beta Technologies Inc. (Class A)
D- 43/100 — 72.2% -35.0% -2.53% $4.81B /beta-vs-joby →
AIR
AAR Corp.
D 50/100 22.4x 18.8% 12.0% -4.08% $4.20B /air-vs-joby →
AVAV
AeroVironment Inc.
E 31/100 — 25.3% -7.6% -6.50% $6.85B /avav-vs-joby →
ACHR
Archer Aviation Inc.
E 33/100 — 33.3% -35.0% -4.11% $3.41B /achr-vs-joby →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001819848

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Joby Aviation Inc. (JOBY) reported GAAP revenue of $53.4M (+39183.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $136.0K , and +5076.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$929.8M, operating cash flow of -$509.9M, and free cash flow of -$563.8M (-18.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, JOBY closed FY2025 with $1.80B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.32, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $53.4M -$929.8M -$509.9M -$563.8M $1.80B $0
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $136.0K -$608.0M -$436.3M -$476.9M $1.20B $131.0M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.0M -$513.0M -$313.8M -$313.9M $2.78B $649.8M

3. JOBY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is JOBY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Joby Aviation Inc. (NYSE: JOBY) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $4.90 (-3.54% 1D, market cap $5.05B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, JOBY ranks #355 in composite RQD confidence.

How does JOBY compare to BETA and AIR in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Aerospace), JOBY carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, BETA (Beta Technologies Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $4.81B) and AIR (AAR Corp.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 22.4x, ROIC 12.0%, cap $4.20B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AIR leads on earnings multiple (22.4x) while AIR leads on capital efficiency (12.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JOBY?

Per JOBY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001819848), Joby Aviation Inc. generated $53.4M in revenue (+39183.1% YoY), -$929.8M in net income, and -$563.8M in free cash flow against $1.80B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is JOBY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

JOBY last traded at $4.90 (-3.54% on volume of 16,258,667 shares), positioning the stock -16.10% below its 50-day simple moving average ($5.84) and -42.49% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.52). Across its 52-week range of $4.43 to $17.10, JOBY sits at the 3.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.2% ($4.40 to $5.40).

JOBY Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is JOBY's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Joby Aviation Inc. (JOBY)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is JOBY stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±10.2% event move for JOBY, spanning a range between $4.4 and $5.4.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 38/100 (D-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

JOBY — Joby Aviation Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:20:50Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, JOBY scores 38 out of 100, a letter grade of D-, with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." The fundamental cash engine pillar scores 9 of 20, reflecting ROIC of -35% and an FCF yield of -11.17%; for a prospective investor, this means the business is not currently generating cash returns on capital. The whale 13F flow pillar scores 5 of 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), signaling weak institutional support in the source data. The insider conviction pillar scores 6 of 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), indicating limited insider signal strength. The macro regime fit pillar scores 4 of 20, with beta of 0.88 and sector sensitivity noted as the drivers. The forensic balance sheet pillar scores 14 of 20, supported by Altman Z 5.32, Piotroski F 5/9, and Debt/Equity 0.5; this is the strongest pillar and the main offset to the weaker operating and flow readings. Taken together, the rating frames JOBY as a stock whose balance sheet is comparatively sturdier than its cash generation and flow profile. Upside drivers would need to come from improving cash returns; the data shows the current valuation rests on future execution rather than present earnings, and the wide 52-week range of $4.43 - $17.1 illustrates the volatility an investor should weigh.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$53.4M$-719.6M$-929.8MN/A$-563.8M$240.8M$0.0M
FY 2024$0.1M$-596.8M$-608.0MN/A$-476.9M$199.6M$131.0M
FY 2023$1.0M$-472.1M$-513.0MN/A$-313.9MN/A$649.8M

Per the SEC financials, the company reported operating and net losses in every period shown, with operating margin and net margin both at -60% in the market data. Gross margin is 0%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is -35%. The forensic balance sheet readings are an Altman Z-Score of 5.32 and a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, with Debt/Equity of 0.5. Reported debt fell from $649.8M (FY 2023) to $0.0M (FY 2025) while cash rose to $240.8M in FY 2025, a posture the forensic pillar scores as comparatively stable despite persistent losses.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, six headlines cover JOBY, sourced from Yahoo Finance, The Motley Fool, and Trefis. Two items carry a "RISK WATCH" or RED light: a Trefis piece on how large the next decline could be, flagged RED, and the remaining items are YELLOW "MARKET WIRE" reports. Recurring headline themes include the stock hitting a 52-week low and investment-return framing. The feed's summaries are generic market-action descriptions and do not contain specific operational catalysts. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no supply-chain links or proprietary signals are recorded (supply_chain: NONE).

Open Questions

  • What specific products, customers, and revenue sources generate the reported FY 2025 revenue of $53.4M?
  • What drove the reduction in reported debt from $649.8M to $0.0M, and what is the company's funding runway given negative FCF of $-563.8M?
  • What is the EPS trajectory, given the FY figures show EPS as N/A and TTM EPS of -0.94?
  • What explains the gap between the forward P/E of 18 and the negative trailing earnings?
  • How do the insider and institutional flow signals (pillar scores 6/20 and 5/20) reconcile with the forensic strength of the balance sheet?

JOBY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Joby Aviation Inc. (JOBY) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to JOBY Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

JOBY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $4.90?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON JOBY 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on JOBY:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $4.47 (-12.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is JOBY (D- • RQD 38/100) a Buy at $5.08?

Welcome to the JOBY (Joby Aviation Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 38/100 (Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow) in Aerospace. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $4.22 (-16.9%)
Spot @ $5.08

Pump the brakes on JOBY — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on JOBY, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Joby Aviation Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $6.10 (+20.1%)
Spot @ $5.08

JOBY cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on JOBY, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Aerospace and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $5.08 (52-wk range $4.43 - $17.10), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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