What is HLP's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for HLP.

Stock Ratings / Industrials / HLP / options

QSI (41) SES (28) AZ (51) CUB (42) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$4.07 +0.25% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.06

Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $303.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on HLP Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HLP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: HLP) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $4.07 (+0.25% 1D, market cap $303.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, HLP ranks #92 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HLP compare to QSI and SES in the Industrials sector?

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Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), HLP carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 32.5%, and ROIC of 3.4%. By comparison, QSI (Quantum-Si Incorporated (Class A)) holds a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $319.6M) and SES (SES AI Corporation (Class A)) posts a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $281.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CUB leads on earnings multiple (38.8x) while HLP leads on capital efficiency (3.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HLP?

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Per HLP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001855557), Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) generated $19.6M in revenue (+39.0% YoY), $1.9M in net income, and $660.8K in free cash flow against $72.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.06 (-0.15%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 3.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HLP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY HLP SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 13.76 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 12.4% operating margin leave 13 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$2.82+5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$2.96+23% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$3.64+11.8% Next Q

Current

Grade C$4.07+0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (55) → C (63)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HLP Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, HLP faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 30.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($2.39) or 200D SMA ($1.29) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($4.16) toward Bear Floor ($3.24).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HLP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “HLP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±12.5%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (HLP)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for HLP.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating HLP & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on HLP
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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HLP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +390.36%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-03O $4.19H $4.19L $4.06C $4.07VOL 562.3K

RES: $4.45SUP: $1.74SMA50: $2.39SMA200: $1.29

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HLP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HLP Butterfly Map → + Track HLP →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +39.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HLP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HLP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HLP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HLP)

Industrials Rank #92 of 486 ⚔️ QSI vs HLP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (HLP vs. QSI, SES, AZ, CUB)

Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)

Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) ranks #92 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #323 by equity capitalization ($303.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CUB leads on earnings valuation at 38.8x trailing P/E, while HLP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 3.4% ROIC and 32.5% gross margin. HLP currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
HLP ACTIVE Hongli Group Inc. (Class A)	C	63/100	—	32.5%	3.4%	+0.25%	$303.4M	Benchmark Subject
QSI Quantum-Si Incorporated (Class A)	D-	41/100	—	47.3%	-35.0%	-13.70%	$319.6M	/qsi-vs-hlp →
SES SES AI Corporation (Class A)	E	28/100	—	53.8%	-35.0%	-1.56%	$281.3M	/ses-vs-hlp →
AZ A2Z Cust2Mate Solutions Corp.	D	51/100	—	—	—	-0.16%	$275.0M	/az-vs-hlp →
CUB Lionheart Holdings (Class A)	D-	42/100	38.8x	—	-4.0%	+0.09%	$347.5M	/cub-vs-hlp →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001855557 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) reported GAAP revenue of $19.6M (+39.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $14.1M , and +22.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.9M, operating cash flow of $878.3K, and free cash flow of $660.8K (+248.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, HLP closed FY2025 with $72.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 13.76, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$19.6M	$1.9M	$878.3K	$660.8K	$72.2M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$14.1M	-$1.9M	-$414.0K	-$446.5K	$65.0M	$3.3M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$16.0M	$864.7K	$884.9K	$884.9K	—	—

3. HLP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HLP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does HLP compare to QSI and SES in the Industrials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HLP?

Where is HLP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HLP last traded at $4.07 (+0.25% on volume of 756,322 shares), positioning the stock +70.29% above its 50-day simple moving average ($2.39) and +215.50% above its 200-day simple moving average ($1.29). Across its 52-week range of $0.34 to $4.40, HLP sits at the 91.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 78.4 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($3.56 to $4.58).

Direct Sub-Reports: HLP RQD Cockpit HLP 12M Forecast HLP Earnings & Move HLP Dividends & DRIP HLP Insiders & 13F HLP Whale Options HLP Profit Sankey HLP News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 63/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

HLP — Hongli Group Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 63/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $4.07 (+0.25% 1D, market capitalization $303.4M).

Fundamental Cash Engine (7/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 3.4%, gross margin of 32.5%, operating margin of 12.4%, and free cash flow yield of 0.21%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (14/20) + Insider Conviction (10/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (14/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (18/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 13.76, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, operating in the Industrial Machinery/Components industry. The company reported FY 2025 revenue of $19.6M. — for customer base and the specific products sold or the revenue model.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) reported $19.6M in annual revenue (up from $14.1M in FY2024, +39.0% YoY) and $1.9M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($16.0M revenue, $864.7K net income) through FY2025, HLP scaled operating cash flow to $878.3K and free cash flow to $660.8K, backed by $72.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 63/100): Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Free cash flow yield of 0.21% and institutional whale pillar of 14/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 7/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 14/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $0.34 – $4.40 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against 12.4% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

No upstream or downstream dependencies are mapped. Sector and industry classification (Industrials / Industrial Machinery/Components) is the only structural context available. — for specific sector correlations or second-order bottlenecks. A prospective investor should treat this as an information gap rather than evidence of an absence of linkages.

Key Question #1: Can HLP sustain or expand its 12.4% operating margin and 3.4% ROIC against Industrial Machinery/Components peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $19.6M and free cash flow of $660.8K, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is HLP's equity valuation to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

HLP Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HLP Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 1d ago

Hongli Group Inc. (HLP) Stock Price, News, Quote & History

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST ChartMill • 1d ago

HONGLI GROUP INC (NASDAQ:HLP) Passes Minervini Trend Template and High-Growth Momentum Screen

ChartMill report covering Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Hongli Group (Nasdaq:HLP) - Stock Analysis

Simply Wall St report covering Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Hongli Group Inc. Estimates – NASDAQ:HLP

TradingView report covering Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

A new chairman takes over at Hongli Group (HLP), while its outgoing chairman remains CEO.

Stock Titan report covering Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE kalkine.ca • 1d ago

Why Is Hongli Group (NASDAQ:HLP) Down 5.67% Pre-Market, and Is More Selling Ahead?

kalkine.ca report covering Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

Drone makers select Xell batteries after testing. Xell says they could help drones fly farther.

Stock Titan report covering Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Bamboo Works • 1d ago

Hongli announces new chairman, departure of independent director

Bamboo Works report covering Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HLP Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $4.07?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HLP 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $5.32 (+31.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet scores 18/20 with an Altman Z-Score of 13.76 and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and operating income rose from -$1.

Don't sleep on HLP's setup in Industrials. Forensic balance sheet scores 18/20 with an Altman Z-Score of 13.76 and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and operating income rose from -$1.6M in FY 2024 to $2.4M in FY 2025.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (63/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Shorting a 14/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $4.06 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Industrials.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.41 (-16.0%)

Spot @ $4.06

ROIC of 3.4% and an FCF yield of 0.21% leave the cash engine scoring only 7/20, with insider conviction at 10/20.

I respect the product at Hongli Group Inc. (Class A), but the stock at $4.06 is a different story. ROIC of 3.4% and an FCF yield of 0.21% leave the cash engine scoring only 7/20, with insider conviction at 10/20.. FCF yield is 0.21% and RQD sits at 63/100 (C) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?