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Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$4.07 +0.25% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.06

Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $303.4M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on HLP Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HLP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: HLP) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $4.07 (+0.25% 1D, market cap $303.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, HLP ranks #92 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HLP compare to QSI and SES in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), HLP carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 32.5%, and ROIC of 3.4%. By comparison, QSI (Quantum-Si Incorporated (Class A)) holds a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $319.6M) and SES (SES AI Corporation (Class A)) posts a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $281.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CUB leads on earnings multiple (38.8x) while HLP leads on capital efficiency (3.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HLP?
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Per HLP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001855557), Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) generated $19.6M in revenue (+39.0% YoY), $1.9M in net income, and $660.8K in free cash flow against $72.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.06 (-0.15%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 3.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510063
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B+
Cash (7)Whales (14)SEC (18)Macro (14)CEO (10)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.2% Base Target
$5 Bull$4 Base$3 Bear
📬 FREE HLP RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HLP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HLP SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 13.76 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 12.4% operating margin leave 13 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
55
Grade C$2.82+5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
58
Grade C$2.96+23% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
60
Grade C$3.64+11.8% Next Q
Current
63
Grade C$4.07+0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (55) → C (63)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HLP Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, HLP faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 30.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($2.39) or 200D SMA ($1.29) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($4.16) toward Bear Floor ($3.24).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HLP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HLP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your HLP Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $4.07: 2457.0 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $3.24
$7,961
$-2,039 (-20.4%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $4.16
$10,221
+$221 (+2.2%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $4.91
$12,064
+$2,064 (+20.6%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$474%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$569%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$458%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (HLP Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
HLP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +390.36%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $4.19H $4.19L $4.06C $4.07VOL 562.3K
RES: $4.45SUP: $1.74SMA50: $2.39SMA200: $1.29
$4.68$3.51$2.33$1.15$-0.03RES $4.45SUP $1.74$4.072026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HLP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HLP Butterfly Map → + Track HLP →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +39.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HLP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HLP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HLP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HLP)

Industrials Rank #92 of 486 ⚔️ QSI vs HLP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (HLP vs. QSI, SES, AZ, CUB)

Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)

Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) ranks #92 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #323 by equity capitalization ($303.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CUB leads on earnings valuation at 38.8x trailing P/E, while HLP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 3.4% ROIC and 32.5% gross margin. HLP currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
HLP ACTIVE
Hongli Group Inc. (Class A)
C 63/100 — 32.5% 3.4% +0.25% $303.4M Benchmark Subject
QSI
Quantum-Si Incorporated (Class A)
D- 41/100 — 47.3% -35.0% -13.70% $319.6M /qsi-vs-hlp →
SES
SES AI Corporation (Class A)
E 28/100 — 53.8% -35.0% -1.56% $281.3M /ses-vs-hlp →
AZ
A2Z Cust2Mate Solutions Corp.
D 51/100 — — — -0.16% $275.0M /az-vs-hlp →
CUB
Lionheart Holdings (Class A)
D- 42/100 38.8x — -4.0% +0.09% $347.5M /cub-vs-hlp →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001855557 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) reported GAAP revenue of $19.6M (+39.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $14.1M , and +22.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.9M, operating cash flow of $878.3K, and free cash flow of $660.8K (+248.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, HLP closed FY2025 with $72.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 13.76, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $19.6M $1.9M $878.3K $660.8K $72.2M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $14.1M -$1.9M -$414.0K -$446.5K $65.0M $3.3M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $16.0M $864.7K $884.9K $884.9K — —

3. HLP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HLP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: HLP) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $4.07 (+0.25% 1D, market cap $303.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, HLP ranks #92 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HLP compare to QSI and SES in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), HLP carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 32.5%, and ROIC of 3.4%. By comparison, QSI (Quantum-Si Incorporated (Class A)) holds a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $319.6M) and SES (SES AI Corporation (Class A)) posts a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $281.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CUB leads on earnings multiple (38.8x) while HLP leads on capital efficiency (3.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HLP?

Per HLP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001855557), Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) generated $19.6M in revenue (+39.0% YoY), $1.9M in net income, and $660.8K in free cash flow against $72.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HLP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HLP last traded at $4.07 (+0.25% on volume of 756,322 shares), positioning the stock +70.29% above its 50-day simple moving average ($2.39) and +215.50% above its 200-day simple moving average ($1.29). Across its 52-week range of $0.34 to $4.40, HLP sits at the 91.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 78.4 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($3.56 to $4.58).

Direct Sub-Reports: HLP RQD Cockpit HLP 12M Forecast HLP Earnings & Move HLP Dividends & DRIP HLP Insiders & 13F HLP Whale Options HLP Profit Sankey HLP News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 63/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

HLP — Hongli Group Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 63/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $4.07 (+0.25% 1D, market capitalization $303.4M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (7/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 3.4%, gross margin of 32.5%, operating margin of 12.4%, and free cash flow yield of 0.21%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (14/20) + Insider Conviction (10/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (14/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (18/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 13.76, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, operating in the Industrial Machinery/Components industry. The company reported FY 2025 revenue of $19.6M. — for customer base and the specific products sold or the revenue model.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) reported $19.6M in annual revenue (up from $14.1M in FY2024, +39.0% YoY) and $1.9M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($16.0M revenue, $864.7K net income) through FY2025, HLP scaled operating cash flow to $878.3K and free cash flow to $660.8K, backed by $72.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 63/100): Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Free cash flow yield of 0.21% and institutional whale pillar of 14/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 7/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 14/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $0.34 – $4.40 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against 12.4% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

No upstream or downstream dependencies are mapped. Sector and industry classification (Industrials / Industrial Machinery/Components) is the only structural context available. — for specific sector correlations or second-order bottlenecks. A prospective investor should treat this as an information gap rather than evidence of an absence of linkages.

  • Key Question #1: Can HLP sustain or expand its 12.4% operating margin and 3.4% ROIC against Industrial Machinery/Components peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $19.6M and free cash flow of $660.8K, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is HLP's equity valuation to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

HLP Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HLP Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HLP Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $4.07?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HLP 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on HLP:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $5.32 (+31.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet scores 18/20 with an Altman Z-Score of 13.76 and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and operating income rose from -$1.

Don't sleep on HLP's setup in Industrials. Forensic balance sheet scores 18/20 with an Altman Z-Score of 13.76 and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and operating income rose from -$1.6M in FY 2024 to $2.4M in FY 2025.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (63/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Shorting a 14/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $4.06 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Industrials.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.41 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $4.06

ROIC of 3.4% and an FCF yield of 0.21% leave the cash engine scoring only 7/20, with insider conviction at 10/20.

I respect the product at Hongli Group Inc. (Class A), but the stock at $4.06 is a different story. ROIC of 3.4% and an FCF yield of 0.21% leave the cash engine scoring only 7/20, with insider conviction at 10/20.. FCF yield is 0.21% and RQD sits at 63/100 (C) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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