How profitable is Genius Sports Limited (GENI)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), GENI converted $669.5M of revenue into a 23% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $64.5M in free cash flow (9.6% FCF margin).

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / GENI / financials

BRSL (34) PRSU (52) PRKS (49) STUB (39) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Genius Sports Limited (GENI) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$6.52 +2.52% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.54

Genius Sports Limited (GENI) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 40/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $1.70B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is GENI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Genius Sports Limited (NYSE: GENI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $6.52 (+2.52% 1D, market cap $1.70B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 8/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, GENI ranks #723 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does GENI compare to BRSL and PRSU in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation), GENI carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 23.0%, and ROIC of -26.9%. By comparison, BRSL (Brightstar Lottery PLC Trading under the Legal Name to begin at the market open on July 21 2025.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 16.8%, cap $1.78B) and PRSU (Pursuit Attractions and Hospitality Inc.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 66.4x, ROIC 3.9%, cap $1.50B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PRKS leads on earnings multiple (8.5x) while PRKS leads on capital efficiency (17.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GENI?

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Per GENI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001834489), Genius Sports Limited generated $669.5M in revenue (+31.0% YoY), -$111.6M in net income, and $64.5M in free cash flow against $1.13B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.54 (+0.26%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 9.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GENI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (40/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY GENI SCORES 40/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 35% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 48.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 9.6% FCF Margin ($64.5M FCF) & 23% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 15 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$6.53+2.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$6.68-5.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$6.32+3.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$6.52-7.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (48) → D- (40)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a GENI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While GENI currently carries a cautious 40/100 (D-) rating due to SEC 10-K Forensic Risk (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.60) and Max Pain ($6.85) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $12.15.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GENI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “GENI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 40%NO 60%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How GENI Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$64.5M (9.6% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $413.0M

FY24

Rev $510.9M

FY25

Rev $669.5M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$669.5M	23%	-22.6%	-$111.6M	$64.5M	-26.9%
FY 2024	$510.9M	25.2%	-11.5%	-$63.0M	$69.6M	-10%
FY 2023	$413.0M	23%	-18%	-$85.5M	$14.9M	-26.9%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GENI)

✓Walkthrough of GENI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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GENI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +44.89%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-03O $6.46H $6.52L $6.36C $6.52VOL 7.43M

RES: $6.64SUP: $5.16SMA50: $6.60SMA200: $6.20

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GENI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GENI Butterfly Map → + Track GENI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +31.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GENI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GENI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GENI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GENI)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #723 of 1009 ⚔️ BRSL vs GENI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (GENI vs. BRSL, PRSU, PRKS, STUB)

Industry: Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Genius Sports Limited (GENI) ranks #723 by composite RQD confidence (40/100, grade D-) and #437 by equity capitalization ($1.70B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PRKS leads on earnings valuation at 8.5x trailing P/E, while PRKS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.2% ROIC and — gross margin. PRSU currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 52/100 (D+) compared with GENI at 40/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
GENI ACTIVE Genius Sports Limited	D-	40/100	—	23.0%	-26.9%	+2.52%	$1.70B	Benchmark Subject
BRSL Brightstar Lottery PLC Trading under the Legal Name to begin at the market open on July 21 2025.	E	34/100	12.0x	—	16.8%	+3.94%	$1.78B	/brsl-vs-geni →
PRSU Pursuit Attractions and Hospitality Inc.	D+	52/100	66.4x	92.3%	3.9%	+1.96%	$1.50B	/prsu-vs-geni →
PRKS United Parks & Resorts Inc.	D	49/100	8.5x	—	17.2%	+8.15%	$1.40B	/prks-vs-geni →
STUB StubHub Holdings Inc. (Class A)	D-	39/100	—	—	-35.0%	+4.50%	$2.21B	/stub-vs-geni →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001834489 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Genius Sports Limited (GENI) reported GAAP revenue of $669.5M (+31.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $510.9M , and +62.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$111.6M, operating cash flow of $86.4M, and free cash flow of $64.5M (-7.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, GENI closed FY2025 with $1.13B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.43, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$669.5M	-$111.6M	$86.4M	$64.5M	$1.13B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$510.9M	-$63.0M	$81.9M	$69.6M	$792.3M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$413.0M	-$85.5M	$14.9M	$14.9M	—	—

3. GENI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GENI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does GENI compare to BRSL and PRSU in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GENI?

Where is GENI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GENI last traded at $6.52 (+2.52% on volume of 6,481,883 shares), positioning the stock -1.21% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.60) and +5.16% above its 200-day simple moving average ($6.20). Across its 52-week range of $3.83 to $11.57, GENI sits at the 34.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.0% ($5.74 to $7.30).

Direct Sub-Reports: GENI RQD Cockpit GENI 12M Forecast GENI Earnings & Move GENI Dividends & DRIP GENI Insiders & 13F GENI Whale Options GENI Profit Sankey GENI News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 40/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

GENI — Genius Sports Limited: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Genius Sports Limited (GENI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 40/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $6.52 (+2.52% 1D, market capitalization $1.70B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -26.9%, gross margin of 23.0%, operating margin of -22.6%, and free cash flow yield of 3.73%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (8/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (5/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.43, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. Amusement & Recreation industry..7B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Genius Sports Limited (GENI) reported $669.5M in annual revenue (up from $510.9M in FY2024, +31.0% YoY) and -$111.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($413.0M revenue, -$85.5M net income) through FY2025, GENI scaled operating cash flow to $86.4M and free cash flow to $64.5M, backed by $1.13B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 40/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 3.73% and institutional whale pillar of 8/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $3.83 – $11.57 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -22.6% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation (Consumer Discretionary), GENI carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 23.0%.

Key Question #1: Can GENI sustain or expand its -22.6% operating margin and -26.9% ROIC against Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $669.5M and free cash flow of $64.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is GENI's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

GENI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Genius Sports Limited (GENI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to GENI Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance Singapore • 22h ago

Genius Sports Limited (GENI) stock price, news, quote and history

Yahoo Finance Singapore report covering Genius Sports Limited (GENI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Genius Sports (NYSE:GENI) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions

Simply Wall St report covering Genius Sports Limited (GENI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Genius Sports Limited (NYSE:GENI) Stock Has Consensus Target Price of $11.25

MarketBeat report covering Genius Sports Limited (GENI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

X's NFL feed pairs official scores with clips and creator commentary

Stock Titan report covering Genius Sports Limited (GENI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🔴 RISK WATCH Stock Traders Daily • 1d ago

Precision Trading with Genius Sports Limited (GENI) Risk Zones

Stock Traders Daily report covering Genius Sports Limited (GENI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟢 CATALYST MarketBeat • 1d ago

Genius Sports (NYSE:GENI) Stock Rating Raised to Hold at Zacks Research

MarketBeat report covering Genius Sports Limited (GENI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Kalkine Media • 1d ago

Can Genius Sports (NYSE:GENI) Expand Its Nasdaq Composite Reach?

Kalkine Media report covering Genius Sports Limited (GENI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

Offside decisions took over 30% less time on average across major competitions using Genius Sports' system.

Stock Titan report covering Genius Sports Limited (GENI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

GENI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $6.52?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON GENI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $8.08 (+27.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Positive 3.73% FCF yield and reported FY 2025 cash rising to $280.6M provide some cash-generation support.

Positive 3.73% FCF yield and reported FY 2025 cash rising to $280.6M provide some cash-generation support.. When you look under the hood at GENI, Fundamental Cash Engine is 9/20 with 23.0% gross margins and -26.9% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (8/20) has been quietly accumulating below $11.57. My 12M target is $8.08.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Shorting a 8/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $6.36 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $4.83 (-24.1%)

Spot @ $6.36

ROIC of -26.9%, Altman Z of 1.43, and operating losses in every reported period point to a vulnerable balance sheet.

ROIC of -26.9%, Altman Z of 1.43, and operating losses in every reported period point to a vulnerable balance sheet.. Look at the math on GENI: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for -26.9% ROIC and -22.6% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $5.60 before getting long.