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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / GENI
BRSL (34) PRSU (52) PRKS (49) STUB (39) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Genius Sports Limited (GENI) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$6.36 -1.55% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.33

Genius Sports Limited (GENI) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 40/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $1.70B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is GENI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Genius Sports Limited (NYSE: GENI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $6.36 (-1.55% 1D, market cap $1.70B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 8/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, GENI ranks #723 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does GENI compare to BRSL and PRSU in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation), GENI carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 23.0%, and ROIC of -26.9%. By comparison, BRSL (Brightstar Lottery PLC Trading under the Legal Name to begin at the market open on July 21 2025.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 16.8%, cap $1.78B) and PRSU (Pursuit Attractions and Hospitality Inc.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 66.4x, ROIC 3.9%, cap $1.50B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PRKS leads on earnings multiple (8.5x) while PRKS leads on capital efficiency (17.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GENI?
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Per GENI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001834489), Genius Sports Limited generated $669.5M in revenue (+31.0% YoY), -$111.6M in net income, and $64.5M in free cash flow against $1.13B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.33 (-0.47%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 9.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510040
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D-
Cash (9)Whales (8)SEC (5)Macro (10)CEO (8)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.2% Base Target
$12 Bull$6 Base$5 Bear
📬 FREE GENI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GENI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (40/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY GENI SCORES 40/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 33% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 48.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 9.6% FCF Margin ($64.5M FCF) & 23% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 15 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
48
Grade D$6.53+2.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
45
Grade D$6.68-5.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
43
Grade D$6.32+0.6% Next Q
Current
40
Grade D-$6.36-7.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (48) → D- (40)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a GENI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While GENI currently carries a cautious 40/100 (D-) rating due to SEC 10-K Forensic Risk (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.60) and Max Pain ($6.68) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $12.15.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GENI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “GENI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 40%NO 60%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
48.230 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)
1.43>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)
5 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE33% OF RANGE
L: $4$6.36H: $12
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 9 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 16 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 15 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on GENI

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (45)

-26.9% ROIC with 23.0% gross margin and 3.73% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (25)

Altman-Z 1.43 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (43)

16/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like GENI
  • ✓Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GENI)

  • ✓Walkthrough of GENI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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GENI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +41.33%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $6.46H $6.46L $6.36C $6.36VOL 7.43M
RES: $6.64SUP: $5.16SMA50: $6.60SMA200: $6.20
$9.76$8.20$6.64$5.08$3.53RES $6.64SUP $5.16$6.362026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GENI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GENI Butterfly Map → + Track GENI →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +31.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GENI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GENI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GENI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GENI)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #723 of 1009 ⚔️ BRSL vs GENI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (GENI vs. BRSL, PRSU, PRKS, STUB)

Industry: Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Genius Sports Limited (GENI) ranks #723 by composite RQD confidence (40/100, grade D-) and #437 by equity capitalization ($1.70B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PRKS leads on earnings valuation at 8.5x trailing P/E, while PRKS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.2% ROIC and — gross margin. PRSU currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 52/100 (D+) compared with GENI at 40/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
GENI ACTIVE
Genius Sports Limited
D- 40/100 — 23.0% -26.9% -1.55% $1.70B Benchmark Subject
BRSL
Brightstar Lottery PLC Trading under the Legal Name to begin at the market open on July 21 2025.
E 34/100 12.0x — 16.8% +0.52% $1.78B /brsl-vs-geni →
PRSU
Pursuit Attractions and Hospitality Inc.
D+ 52/100 66.4x 92.3% 3.9% -0.23% $1.50B /prsu-vs-geni →
PRKS
United Parks & Resorts Inc.
D 49/100 8.5x — 17.2% -2.56% $1.40B /prks-vs-geni →
STUB
StubHub Holdings Inc. (Class A)
D- 39/100 — — -35.0% -0.69% $2.21B /stub-vs-geni →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001834489 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Genius Sports Limited (GENI) reported GAAP revenue of $669.5M (+31.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $510.9M , and +62.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$111.6M, operating cash flow of $86.4M, and free cash flow of $64.5M (-7.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, GENI closed FY2025 with $1.13B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.43, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $669.5M -$111.6M $86.4M $64.5M $1.13B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $510.9M -$63.0M $81.9M $69.6M $792.3M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $413.0M -$85.5M $14.9M $14.9M — —

3. GENI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GENI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Genius Sports Limited (NYSE: GENI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $6.36 (-1.55% 1D, market cap $1.70B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 8/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, GENI ranks #723 in composite RQD confidence.

How does GENI compare to BRSL and PRSU in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation), GENI carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 23.0%, and ROIC of -26.9%. By comparison, BRSL (Brightstar Lottery PLC Trading under the Legal Name to begin at the market open on July 21 2025.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 16.8%, cap $1.78B) and PRSU (Pursuit Attractions and Hospitality Inc.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 66.4x, ROIC 3.9%, cap $1.50B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PRKS leads on earnings multiple (8.5x) while PRKS leads on capital efficiency (17.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GENI?

Per GENI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001834489), Genius Sports Limited generated $669.5M in revenue (+31.0% YoY), -$111.6M in net income, and $64.5M in free cash flow against $1.13B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is GENI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GENI last traded at $6.36 (-1.55% on volume of 7,432,500 shares), positioning the stock -3.64% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.60) and +2.58% above its 200-day simple moving average ($6.20). Across its 52-week range of $3.83 to $11.57, GENI sits at the 32.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.0% ($5.60 to $7.12).

Direct Sub-Reports: GENI RQD Cockpit GENI 12M Forecast GENI Earnings & Move GENI Dividends & DRIP GENI Insiders & 13F GENI Whale Options GENI Profit Sankey GENI News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 40/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

GENI — Genius Sports Limited: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Genius Sports Limited (GENI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 40/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $6.36 (-1.55% 1D, market capitalization $1.70B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -26.9%, gross margin of 23.0%, operating margin of -22.6%, and free cash flow yield of 3.73%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (8/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (5/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.43, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. Amusement & Recreation industry..7B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Genius Sports Limited (GENI) reported $669.5M in annual revenue (up from $510.9M in FY2024, +31.0% YoY) and -$111.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($413.0M revenue, -$85.5M net income) through FY2025, GENI scaled operating cash flow to $86.4M and free cash flow to $64.5M, backed by $1.13B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 40/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 3.73% and institutional whale pillar of 8/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $3.83 – $11.57 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -22.6% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation (Consumer Discretionary), GENI carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 23.0%.

  • Key Question #1: Can GENI sustain or expand its -22.6% operating margin and -26.9% ROIC against Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $669.5M and free cash flow of $64.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is GENI's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

GENI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Genius Sports Limited (GENI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to GENI Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

GENI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $6.36?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON GENI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on GENI:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $8.08 (+27.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Positive 3.73% FCF yield and reported FY 2025 cash rising to $280.6M provide some cash-generation support.

Positive 3.73% FCF yield and reported FY 2025 cash rising to $280.6M provide some cash-generation support.. When you look under the hood at GENI, Fundamental Cash Engine is 9/20 with 23.0% gross margins and -26.9% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (8/20) has been quietly accumulating below $11.57. My 12M target is $8.08.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Shorting a 8/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $6.36 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $4.83 (-24.1%)
Spot @ $6.36

ROIC of -26.9%, Altman Z of 1.43, and operating losses in every reported period point to a vulnerable balance sheet.

ROIC of -26.9%, Altman Z of 1.43, and operating losses in every reported period point to a vulnerable balance sheet.. Look at the math on GENI: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for -26.9% ROIC and -22.6% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $5.60 before getting long.

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