How profitable is Everus Construction Group Inc. (ECG)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), ECG converted $3.7B of revenue into a 12.1% gross margin, 7.1% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / ECG / financials

IBP (67) CVCO (80) SKY (81) MTH (59) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Everus Construction Group Inc. (ECG) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$102.99 +0.35% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $102.86

Everus Construction Group Inc. (ECG) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $5.24B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ECG Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ECG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

▼

As of 2026-11-03, Everus Construction Group Inc. (NYSE: ECG) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $102.99 (+0.35% 1D, market cap $5.24B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ECG ranks #628 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ECG compare to IBP and CVCO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

▼

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Homebuilding), ECG carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 27.3x, gross margin of 12.1%, and ROIC of 30.4%. By comparison, IBP (Installed Building Products Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 21.3x, ROIC 24.7%, cap $5.67B) and CVCO (Cavco Industries Inc.) posts a B+ grade (80/100 RQD, P/E 22.0x, ROIC 17.6%, cap $4.76B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MTH leads on earnings multiple (9.3x) while ECG leads on capital efficiency (30.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ECG?

▼

Per ECG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002015845), Everus Construction Group Inc. generated $3.75B in revenue (+31.5% YoY), $201.8M in net income, and -$11.7M in free cash flow against $1.73B in total assets and $266.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $102.86 (-0.13%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ECG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ECG SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 6.47 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 12.1% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (41.7) create a -15 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$113.67-6.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$106.00-0.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$105.80-2.7% Next Q

Current

Grade D$102.99-6.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (54) → D (46)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ECG Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ECG currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($113.82) and Max Pain ($108.14) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $180.16.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ECG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ECG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 46%NO 54%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How ECG Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $2.85B

FY24

Rev $2.85B

FY25

Rev $3.75B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$3.75B	12.1%	7.1%	$201.8M	-$11.7M	29.6%
FY 2024	$2.85B	11.9%	6.7%	$143.4M	$35.1M	26.7%
FY 2023	$2.85B	12.1%	6.7%	$137.2M	$42.9M	7.3%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ECG)

✓Walkthrough of ECG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ECG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -31.76%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-03O $108.1H $108.1L $102.6C $103.0VOL 517.1K

RES: $121.5SUP: $87.04SMA50: $113.8SMA200: $126.1

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ECG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ECG Butterfly Map → + Track ECG →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

20.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +31.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ECG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ECG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ECG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ECG)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #628 of 1009 ⚔️ IBP vs ECG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ECG vs. IBP, CVCO, SKY, MTH)

Industry: Homebuilding (31 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Everus Construction Group Inc. (ECG) ranks #628 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #259 by equity capitalization ($5.24B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MTH leads on earnings valuation at 9.3x trailing P/E, while ECG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 30.4% ROIC and 12.1% gross margin. SKY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 81/100 (A-) compared with ECG at 46/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ECG ACTIVE Everus Construction Group Inc.	D	46/100	27.3x	12.1%	30.4%	+0.35%	$5.24B	Benchmark Subject
IBP Installed Building Products Inc.	C+	67/100	21.3x	34.0%	24.7%	+3.32%	$5.67B	/ibp-vs-ecg →
CVCO Cavco Industries Inc.	B+	80/100	22.0x	23.5%	17.6%	+7.09%	$4.76B	/cvco-vs-ecg →
SKY Champion Homes Inc.	A-	81/100	21.3x	26.4%	20.8%	+4.72%	$4.60B	/sky-vs-ecg →
MTH Meritage Homes Corporation	C-	59/100	9.3x	—	8.0%	+7.04%	$4.20B	/mth-vs-ecg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002015845 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Everus Construction Group Inc. (ECG) reported GAAP revenue of $3.75B (+31.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.85B , and +31.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $201.8M, operating cash flow of $156.8M, and free cash flow of -$11.7M (-133.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, ECG closed FY2025 with $1.73B in total assets against $266.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.47, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$3.75B	$201.8M	$156.8M	-$11.7M	$1.73B	$266.5M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$2.85B	$143.4M	$163.4M	$35.1M	$1.29B	$280.6M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$2.85B	$137.2M	$171.3M	$42.9M	$3.43B	$801.5M

3. ECG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ECG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ECG compare to IBP and CVCO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ECG?

Where is ECG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ECG last traded at $102.99 (+0.35% on volume of 677,621 shares), positioning the stock -9.52% below its 50-day simple moving average ($113.82) and -18.32% below its 200-day simple moving average ($126.09). Across its 52-week range of $78.14 to $171.58, ECG sits at the 26.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.5% ($92.18 to $113.80).

Direct Sub-Reports: ECG RQD Cockpit ECG 12M Forecast ECG Earnings & Move ECG Dividends & DRIP ECG Insiders & 13F ECG Whale Options ECG Profit Sankey ECG News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 46/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ECG — Everus Construction Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Everus Construction Group Inc. (ECG) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 46/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $102.99 (+0.35% 1D, market capitalization $5.24B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 30.4%, gross margin of 12.1%, operating margin of 7.1%, and free cash flow yield of -0.21%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (10/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.13x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 6.47, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.42x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Everus Construction Group Inc. (ECG) is a NYSE-listed company classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Homebuilding industry (per the company profile). — for specific products, customers, or revenue-generation detail beyond the sector classification. The source data provides gross margin of 12.1%, operating margin of 7.1%, and net margin of 5.4% (per the market data section), which describe profitability but not the operating model itself.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Everus Construction Group Inc. (ECG) reported $3.75B in annual revenue (up from $2.85B in FY2024, +31.5% YoY) and $201.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.85B revenue, $137.2M net income) through FY2025, ECG scaled operating cash flow to $156.8M and free cash flow to -$11.7M, backed by $1.73B in total assets against $266.5M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 46/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -0.21% and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $78.14 – $171.58 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 27.3x trailing P/E and 13.7x EV/EBITDA against 7.1% operating margins and a 1.13x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Sector classification is Consumer Discretionary / Homebuilding (). The beta of 1.13 (per the market data) is the only available indicator of sensitivity to broad market movement.

Key Question #1: Can ECG sustain or expand its 7.1% operating margin and 30.4% ROIC against Homebuilding peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $3.75B and free cash flow of -$11.7M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $266.5M in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is ECG's 22.9x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.13x)?

ECG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Everus Construction Group Inc. (ECG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ECG Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 22h ago

Is Everus Construction Group, Inc. (ECG) Stock Outpacing Its Construction Peers This Year?

Yahoo Finance report covering Everus Construction Group Inc. (ECG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Everus Construction Group (ECG) Stock Could Be 17% Overvalued On Cash Flow

Yahoo Finance report covering Everus Construction Group Inc. (ECG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Moomoo • 1d ago

Here's Why Everus Construction Group (NYSE:ECG) Has Caught The Eye Of Investors

Moomoo report covering Everus Construction Group Inc. (ECG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Everus is Set to Report Q3 Earnings: What to Expect This Season?

TradingView report covering Everus Construction Group Inc. (ECG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE The Globe and Mail • 1d ago

Everus Construction Group, Inc. (ECG) Gets a Buy from Guggenheim

The Globe and Mail report covering Everus Construction Group Inc. (ECG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Earnings Outlook Upgrade Altering The Investment Case For Everus Construction Group Stock?

Simply Wall St report covering Everus Construction Group Inc. (ECG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Everus Stock Falls 15% in Three Months: Is a Rebound Ahead?

Yahoo Finance report covering Everus Construction Group Inc. (ECG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Business Wire • 1d ago

Everus Announces Third Quarter 2026 Results Webcast Schedule

Business Wire report covering Everus Construction Group Inc. (ECG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ECG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $102.99?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ECG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $124.18 (+21.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

High ROIC of 30.4% and a strong forensic balance sheet (Altman Z 6.47, Piotroski F 6/9, Debt/Equity 0.42) with debt falling from $801.5

High ROIC of 30.4% and a strong forensic balance sheet (Altman Z 6.47, Piotroski F 6/9, Debt/Equity 0.42) with debt falling from $801.5M to $266.5M.. When you look under the hood at ECG, Fundamental Cash Engine is 12/20 with 12.1% gross margins and 30.4% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (5/20) has been quietly accumulating below $171.58. My 12M target is $124.18.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@RedlineAuditor Shorting a 5/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $102.63 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $81.08 (-21.0%)

Spot @ $102.63

Negative FCF yield of -0.21% with FY 2025 FCF at -$11.7M, weak whale-flow (7/20) and macro-fit (5/20) scores, and Beta of 1.13.

Negative FCF yield of -0.21% with FY 2025 FCF at -$11.7M, weak whale-flow (7/20) and macro-fit (5/20) scores, and Beta of 1.13.. Look at the math on ECG: paying 27.3x trailing P/E for 30.4% ROIC and 7.1% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Homebuilding demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $90.31 before getting long.