How profitable is CareDx Inc. (CDNA)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), CDNA converted $379.8M of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $24.9M in free cash flow (6.6% FCF margin).

Stock Ratings / Health Care / CDNA / financials

CON (68) VCYT (73) BLLN (70) RDNT (57) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

CareDx Inc. (CDNA) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$85.88 -1.75% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $85.82

CareDx Inc. (CDNA) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 71/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, -8% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $4.59B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CDNA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, CareDx Inc. (NASDAQ: CDNA) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $85.88 (-1.75% 1D, market cap $4.59B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 19/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, CDNA ranks #70 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CDNA compare to CON and VCYT in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Medical Specialities), CDNA carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -8.2%. By comparison, CON (Concentra Group Holdings Parent Inc.) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 31.6x, ROIC 19.7%, cap $5.15B) and VCYT (Veracyte Inc.) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 63.2x, ROIC 4.6%, cap $4.02B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CON leads on earnings multiple (31.6x) while CON leads on capital efficiency (19.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CDNA?

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Per CDNA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001217234), CareDx Inc. generated $379.8M in revenue (+13.8% YoY), -$21.4M in net income, and $24.9M in free cash flow against $413.2M in total assets and $49.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $85.81 (-0.08%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 6.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B- · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CDNA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (71/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY CDNA SCORES 71/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+19/20 pts (27% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 19.22 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 10 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$64.69+9.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$70.74+2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$72.13+19.1% Next Q

Current

Grade B-$85.88+6.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (63) → B- (71)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CDNA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 71/100 (B-) score, CDNA faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($61.60) or 200D SMA ($34.49) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($90.90) toward Bear Floor ($70.42).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CDNA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “CDNA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 71%NO 29%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How CDNA Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$24.9M (6.6% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $280.3M

FY24

Rev $333.8M

FY25

Rev $379.8M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$379.8M	52%	-8.1%	-$21.4M	$24.9M	-8.5%
FY 2024	$333.8M	52%	12.2%	$52.5M	$23.0M	10.2%
FY 2023	$280.3M	52%	-72.5%	-$190.3M	-$31.0M	-13.1%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CDNA)

✓Walkthrough of CDNA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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CDNA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +309.73%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-03O $71.52H $87.41L $71.52C $85.88VOL 3.56M

RES: $92.83SUP: $71.34SMA50: $61.60SMA200: $34.49

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CDNA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CDNA Butterfly Map → + Track CDNA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

14.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +13.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CDNA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CDNA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CDNA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CDNA)

Health Care Rank #70 of 1015 ⚔️ CON vs CDNA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (CDNA vs. CON, VCYT, BLLN, RDNT)

Industry: Medical Specialities (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, CareDx Inc. (CDNA) ranks #70 by composite RQD confidence (71/100, grade B-) and #169 by equity capitalization ($4.59B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CON leads on earnings valuation at 31.6x trailing P/E, while CON leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 19.7% ROIC and — gross margin. VCYT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with CDNA at 71/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
CDNA ACTIVE CareDx Inc.	B-	71/100	—	—	-8.2%	-1.75%	$4.59B	Benchmark Subject
CON Concentra Group Holdings Parent Inc.	C+	68/100	31.6x	—	19.7%	-0.12%	$5.15B	/con-vs-cdna →
VCYT Veracyte Inc.	B	73/100	63.2x	70.1%	4.6%	-2.02%	$4.02B	/vcyt-vs-cdna →
BLLN BillionToOne Inc.	B-	70/100	—	68.3%	2.9%	-2.57%	$5.35B	/blln-vs-cdna →
RDNT RadNet Inc.	D+	57/100	—	—	3.5%	-0.53%	$5.78B	/rdnt-vs-cdna →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001217234 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), CareDx Inc. (CDNA) reported GAAP revenue of $379.8M (+13.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $333.8M , and +35.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$21.4M, operating cash flow of $42.0M, and free cash flow of $24.9M (+8.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, CDNA closed FY2025 with $413.2M in total assets against $49.6M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 19.22, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$379.8M	-$21.4M	$42.0M	$24.9M	$413.2M	$49.6M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$333.8M	$52.5M	$38.0M	$23.0M	$491.1M	$50.7M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$280.3M	-$190.3M	-$18.4M	-$31.0M	$2.04B	$476.2M

3. CDNA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CDNA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does CDNA compare to CON and VCYT in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CDNA?

Where is CDNA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CDNA last traded at $85.88 (-1.75% on volume of 2,354,919 shares), positioning the stock +39.42% above its 50-day simple moving average ($61.60) and +149.00% above its 200-day simple moving average ($34.49). Across its 52-week range of $14.27 to $90.87, CDNA sits at the 93.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 67.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($75.15 to $96.61).

Direct Sub-Reports: CDNA RQD Cockpit CDNA 12M Forecast CDNA Earnings & Move CDNA Dividends & DRIP CDNA Insiders & 13F CDNA Whale Options CDNA Profit Sankey CDNA News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 71/100 (B-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

CDNA — CareDx Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

CareDx Inc. (CDNA) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 71/100, corresponding to a B- letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $85.88 (-1.75% 1D, market capitalization $4.59B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -8.2%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -8.1%, and free cash flow yield of 0.67%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (19/20) + Insider Conviction (10/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 1.06x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 19.22, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.15x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

CareDx Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, Medical Specialities industry. The profile identifies the company as operating in Medical Specialities with a market capitalization of $3.7B. Revenue of $379.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), CareDx Inc. (CDNA) reported $379.8M in annual revenue (up from $333.8M in FY2024, +13.8% YoY) and -$21.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($280.3M revenue, -$190.3M net income) through FY2025, CDNA scaled operating cash flow to $42.0M and free cash flow to $24.9M, backed by $413.2M in total assets against $49.6M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (B- • RQD 71/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 19/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $14.27 – $90.87 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -8.1% operating margins and a 1.06x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks cannot be mapped from the provided sources. The only sector context available is the classification as Health Care / Medical Specialities.

Key Question #1: Can CDNA sustain or expand its -8.1% operating margin and -8.2% ROIC against Medical Specialities peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $379.8M and free cash flow of $24.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $49.6M in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is CDNA's 21.0x forward P/E multiple to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.06x)?

CDNA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for CareDx Inc. (CDNA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CDNA Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 1d ago

CareDx, Inc. (CDNA) Stock Price, News, Quote & History

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering CareDx Inc. (CDNA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance Singapore • 1d ago

CareDx, Inc. (CDNA) stock price, news, quote and history

Yahoo Finance Singapore report covering CareDx Inc. (CDNA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE StockInvest.us • 1d ago

Caredx Stock Price Forecast. Should You Buy CDNA?

StockInvest.us report covering CareDx Inc. (CDNA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST The Motley Fool • 1d ago

Why CareDx Stock Soared Today

The Motley Fool report covering CareDx Inc. (CDNA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST GuruFocus • 1d ago

CareDx Inc (CDNA) Shares Surge 4.8% -- What GF Score of 64 Tells Investors

GuruFocus report covering CareDx Inc. (CDNA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

CareDx (CDNA) Stock May Be 30% Below Fair Value On Fresh $74 Target

Simply Wall St report covering CareDx Inc. (CDNA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

Stock vesting triggers 997-share tax withholding for CareDx (CDNA) counsel Jeffrey Adam Novack.

Stock Titan report covering CareDx Inc. (CDNA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE www.marketscreener.com • 1d ago

Earnings Flash (CDNA) CareDx, Inc. Posts Q3 Adjusted EPS $0.70 per Share

www.marketscreener.com report covering CareDx Inc. (CDNA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CDNA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $85.88?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CDNA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $107.51 (+23.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Institutional accumulation and options positioning (17/20, the strongest RQD pillar) combined with a forensic balance sheet (Altman Z 1

The street is overcomplicating CareDx Inc. (CDNA). Institutional accumulation and options positioning (17/20, the strongest RQD pillar) combined with a forensic balance sheet (Altman Z 19.22, Debt/Equity 0.15) suggest financial stability and institutional support beneath the stock.. With an RQD score of 71/100 (B-) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 16/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $94.40.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@BearTrap_Alert Fair point on 21.0x forward P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Medical Specialities. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $70.80 (-19.0%)

Spot @ $87.41

Negative ROIC of -8.2%, operating margin of -8.1%, and a swing from $40.8M operating income in FY 2024 to -$30.8M in FY 2025 indicate w

Careful chasing CDNA at $87.41. Negative ROIC of -8.2%, operating margin of -8.1%, and a swing from $40.8M operating income in FY 2024 to -$30.8M in FY 2025 indicate weakening profitability and a valuation resting on an earnings recovery not yet visible in trailing EPS of -0.41.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is -8.1%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $70.80 on multiple compression.