Should I buy, hold, or sell CON stock right now?

Concentra Group Holdings Parent Inc. (CON) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold — HOLD) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (20% return on capital), mixed timing at 32x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is CON's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

CON's 12-month base price target is $42.14 (range $32.87 to $49.73), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Health Care / CON

BLLN (70) CDNA (71) RDNT (57) GRAL (54) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Concentra Group Holdings Parent Inc. (CON) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$40.33 -0.12% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $40.24

Concentra Group Holdings Parent Inc. (CON) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $5.15B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on CON Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CON stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Concentra Group Holdings Parent Inc. (NYSE: CON) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $40.33 (-0.12% 1D, market cap $5.15B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, CON ranks #93 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CON compare to BLLN and CDNA in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Medical Specialities), CON carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 31.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 19.7%. By comparison, BLLN (BillionToOne Inc.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.9%, cap $5.35B) and CDNA (CareDx Inc.) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -8.2%, cap $4.59B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CON leads on earnings multiple (31.6x) while CON leads on capital efficiency (19.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CON?

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Per CON's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002014596), Concentra Group Holdings Parent Inc. generated $2.16B in revenue (+13.9% YoY), $166.4M in net income, and $197.1M in free cash flow against $2.86B in total assets and $1.10B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $40.25 (-0.21%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 9.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CON)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY CON SCORES 68/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±5.3% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 9.1% FCF Margin ($197.1M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (65.4) create a -11 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$37.54+1.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$38.18+5.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$40.20+0.3% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$40.33+1.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (60) → C+ (68)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CON Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, CON faces multiple-compression risk if 31.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($36.42) or 200D SMA ($28.59) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($42.14) toward Bear Floor ($32.87).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CON• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “CON Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 68%NO 32%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

65.430 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDWATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)

2.53>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

7 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE95% OF RANGE

L: $19$40.33H: $42

1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (steady margins and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: BRQD 15 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● BUYING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Hedge funds and options traders are leaning bullish, showing strong institutional appetite.

Factor Grade: B+RQD 32 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on CON

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (75)

19.7% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 3.75% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (60)

Altman-Z 2.53 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BULLISH (68)

32/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 9/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like CON

✓Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
✓Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.
✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (CON Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

CON // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +77.90%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-02O $40.16H $41.32L $39.61C $40.33VOL 1.24M

RES: $41.97SUP: $36.26SMA50: $36.42SMA200: $28.59

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CON Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CON Butterfly Map → + Track CON →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

24.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +13.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CON today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CON. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CON today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CON)

Health Care Rank #93 of 1015 ⚔️ BLLN vs CON Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (CON vs. BLLN, CDNA, RDNT, GRAL)

Industry: Medical Specialities (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Concentra Group Holdings Parent Inc. (CON) ranks #93 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #158 by equity capitalization ($5.15B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CON leads on earnings valuation at 31.6x trailing P/E, while CON leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 19.7% ROIC and — gross margin. CDNA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with CON at 68/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
CON ACTIVE Concentra Group Holdings Parent Inc.	C+	68/100	31.6x	—	19.7%	-0.12%	$5.15B	Benchmark Subject
BLLN BillionToOne Inc.	B-	70/100	—	68.3%	2.9%	-2.57%	$5.35B	/blln-vs-con →
CDNA CareDx Inc.	B-	71/100	—	—	-8.2%	-1.75%	$4.59B	/cdna-vs-con →
RDNT RadNet Inc.	D+	57/100	—	—	3.5%	-0.53%	$5.78B	/rdnt-vs-con →
GRAL GRAIL Inc.	D+	54/100	—	—	-18.0%	-6.74%	$6.41B	/gral-vs-con →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002014596 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Concentra Group Holdings Parent Inc. (CON) reported GAAP revenue of $2.16B (+13.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.90B , and +17.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $166.4M, operating cash flow of $279.4M, and free cash flow of $197.1M (-6.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, CON closed FY2025 with $2.86B in total assets against $1.10B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.53, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$2.16B	$166.4M	$279.4M	$197.1M	$2.86B	$1.10B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.90B	$166.5M	$274.7M	$210.3M	$2.52B	$1.00B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.84B	$179.9M	$234.3M	$151.6M	$2.89B	$677.0M

3. CON Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CON stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does CON compare to BLLN and CDNA in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CON?

Where is CON trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CON last traded at $40.33 (-0.12% on volume of 1,242,738 shares), positioning the stock +10.74% above its 50-day simple moving average ($36.42) and +41.06% above its 200-day simple moving average ($28.59). Across its 52-week range of $18.55 to $41.52, CON sits at the 94.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 65.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.3% ($38.19 to $42.47).

Direct Sub-Reports: CON RQD Cockpit CON 12M Forecast CON Earnings & Move CON Dividends & DRIP CON Insiders & 13F CON Whale Options CON Profit Sankey CON News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 68/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

CON — Concentra Group Holdings Parent Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Concentra Group Holdings Parent Inc. (CON) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 68/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $40.33 (-0.12% 1D, market capitalization $5.15B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 19.7%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 15.4%, and free cash flow yield of 3.75%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (17/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.53, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 2.60x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Concentra Group Holdings Parent Inc. (CON) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Health Care sector and the Medical Specialities industry. Per the market data, the company reports an operating margin of 15.4% and a net margin of 7.7%. Per the financials, FY 2025 revenue was $2.16B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Concentra Group Holdings Parent Inc. (CON) reported $2.16B in annual revenue (up from $1.90B in FY2024, +13.9% YoY) and $166.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.84B revenue, $179.9M net income) through FY2025, CON scaled operating cash flow to $279.4M and free cash flow to $197.1M, backed by $2.86B in total assets against $1.10B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 68/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 17/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $18.55 – $41.52 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 31.6x trailing P/E and 15.4x EV/EBITDA against 15.4% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Sector is Health Care and industry is Medical Specialities. No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or bottlenecks are identified in the source data.

Key Question #1: Can CON sustain or expand its 15.4% operating margin and 19.7% ROIC against Medical Specialities peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.16B and free cash flow of $197.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.10B in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is CON's 26.5x forward P/E multiple to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

CON Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Concentra Group Holdings Parent Inc. (CON) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CON Debate Forum (3) ↓

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo • 5d ago

UHS Misses Q3 Earnings Estimates Despite Higher Patient Volumes

Universal Health Services' Q3 earnings fall 8.3% despite revenue growth, as rising costs and Acute Care pricing pressure offset higher patient volumes.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 6d ago

Is Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON) Stock Outpacing Its Medical Peers This Year?

Here is how Concentra Group (CON) and Centene (CNC) have performed compared to their sector so far this year.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 6d ago

Centene Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates on Medicare Strength

Centene's Q3 earnings beat estimates as Medicare revenues surge 19.9% despite falling membership, while management lifts its 2026 adjusted profit outlook.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 11d ago

How Investors May Respond To Concentra Group Holdings Parent (CON) New Clinic Openings

Concentra Group Holdings Parent recently opened new occupational health centers in Arlington, Virginia and Pensacola, Florida, extending its network to employers in two employment heavy corridors with services spanning w

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 12d ago

Concentra Expands Presence on Gulf Coast with First Pensacola Health Center

PENSACOLA, Fla., October 22, 2026--Concentra®, the nation’s leader in occupational medicine, today announced the opening of its first medical center in Pensacola, expanding its presence to the Florida Panhandle and provi

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 12d ago

Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV) Hits Fresh High: Is There Still Room to Run?

Elevance Health (ELV) is at a 52-week high, but can investors hope for more gains in the future? We take a look at the company's fundamentals for clues.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 12d ago

ELV Beats Q3 Earnings Estimates on Carelon Strength, Raises 2026 Outlook

Elevance Health beats Q3 EPS estimate by 50% as Carelon grows despite declining medical membership, and lifts its 2026 underlying earnings baseline to $26.75.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 14d ago

Stephens & Co. Initiates Coverage On Concentra Group Holdings with Overweight Rating, Announces Price Target of $45

Stephens & Co. initiates coverage on Concentra Group Holdings (NYSE:CON) with a Overweight rating and announces Price Target of $45.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CON Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $40.33?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CON 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $49.67 (+23.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Institutional accumulation (17 of 20 whale pillar) and a 19.7% ROIC support the cash-engine case.

The street is overcomplicating Concentra Group Holdings Parent Inc. (CON). Institutional accumulation (17 of 20 whale pillar) and a 19.7% ROIC support the cash-engine case.. With an RQD score of 68/100 (C+) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 12/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $43.61.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Fair point on 31.6x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Medical Specialities. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $34.32 (-15.0%)

Spot @ $40.38

A 2.6 Debt/Equity and Beta of 1 leave the balance sheet and macro sensitivity as key exposures.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short CON above $40.38. A 2.6 Debt/Equity and Beta of 1 leave the balance sheet and macro sensitivity as key exposures.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20) and FCF yield (3.75%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $41.52.