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Stock Ratings / Health Care / CBIO / insiders
DMAC (43) OVID (40) GYRE (43) OCS (47) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Crescent Biopharma Inc. (CBIO) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$13.48 -4.19% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.35

Crescent Biopharma Inc. (CBIO) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 29/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $500.7M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CBIO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Crescent Biopharma Inc. (NASDAQ: CBIO) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $13.48 (-4.19% 1D, market cap $500.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, CBIO ranks #826 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CBIO compare to DMAC and OVID in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), CBIO carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, DMAC (DiaMedica Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $498.8M) and OVID (Ovid Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -28.5%, cap $496.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GYRE leads on earnings multiple (72.3x) while GYRE leads on capital efficiency (25.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CBIO?
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Per CBIO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001253689), Crescent Biopharma Inc. generated $10.8M in revenue (-90.3% YoY), $153.9K in net income, and -$72.5M in free cash flow against $240.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.35 (-0.94%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (29/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510029
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (5)Whales (5)SEC (13)Macro (3)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.1% Base Target
$29 Bull$12 Base$9 Bear
📬 FREE CBIO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CBIO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (29/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CBIO SCORES 29/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (45% of score)

Altman Z-Score 6.36 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+5/20 pts (17% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
21
Grade E$12.91+1.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
24
Grade E$13.07+1.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
26
Grade E$13.27+1.6% Next Q
Current
29
Grade E$13.48-9.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (21) → E (29)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CBIO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CBIO currently carries a cautious 29/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($15.49) and Max Pain ($14.15) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $28.78.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CBIO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CBIO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 29%NO 71%Trade / Inspect Odds →
SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

CBIO Smart-Money Thermometer: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →
▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (CBIO)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on CBIO. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CBIO)

  • ✓Walkthrough of CBIO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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CBIO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -24.78%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $14.07H $14.07L $13.48C $13.48VOL 189.5K
RES: $22.21SUP: $11.28SMA50: $15.49SMA200: $15.89
$23.27$20.16$17.04$13.93$10.81RES $22.21SUP $11.28$13.482026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CBIO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CBIO Butterfly Map → + Track CBIO →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -90.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CBIO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CBIO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CBIO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CBIO)

Health Care Rank #826 of 1015 ⚔️ DMAC vs CBIO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (CBIO vs. DMAC, OVID, GYRE, OCS)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Crescent Biopharma Inc. (CBIO) ranks #826 by composite RQD confidence (29/100, grade E) and #442 by equity capitalization ($500.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GYRE leads on earnings valuation at 72.3x trailing P/E, while GYRE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 25.4% ROIC and 95.4% gross margin. OCS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 47/100 (D) compared with CBIO at 29/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CBIO ACTIVE
Crescent Biopharma Inc.
E 29/100 — — -35.0% -4.19% $500.7M Benchmark Subject
DMAC
DiaMedica Therapeutics Inc.
D- 43/100 — — -35.0% -2.84% $498.8M /dmac-vs-cbio →
OVID
Ovid Therapeutics Inc.
D- 40/100 — — -28.5% -0.78% $496.1M /ovid-vs-cbio →
GYRE
Gyre Therapeutics Inc.
D- 43/100 72.3x 95.4% 25.4% -28.94% $507.9M /gyre-vs-cbio →
OCS
Oculis Holding AG
D 47/100 — — — +0.24% $508.7M /ocs-vs-cbio →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001253689 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Crescent Biopharma Inc. (CBIO) reported GAAP revenue of $10.8M (-90.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $112.1M , and -90.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $153.9K, operating cash flow of -$71.5M, and free cash flow of -$72.5M (-132.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, CBIO closed FY2025 with $240.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.36, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $10.8M $153.9K -$71.5M -$72.5M $240.3M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $112.1M $37.9K -$31.1M -$31.1M $35.6M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $110.0M $36.9K -$34.9M -$34.9M — —

3. CBIO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CBIO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Crescent Biopharma Inc. (NASDAQ: CBIO) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $13.48 (-4.19% 1D, market cap $500.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, CBIO ranks #826 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CBIO compare to DMAC and OVID in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), CBIO carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, DMAC (DiaMedica Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $498.8M) and OVID (Ovid Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -28.5%, cap $496.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GYRE leads on earnings multiple (72.3x) while GYRE leads on capital efficiency (25.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CBIO?

Per CBIO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001253689), Crescent Biopharma Inc. generated $10.8M in revenue (-90.3% YoY), $153.9K in net income, and -$72.5M in free cash flow against $240.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CBIO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CBIO last traded at $13.48 (-4.19% on volume of 189,524 shares), positioning the stock -12.98% below its 50-day simple moving average ($15.49) and -15.17% below its 200-day simple moving average ($15.89). Across its 52-week range of $8.72 to $27.41, CBIO sits at the 25.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($11.79 to $15.17).

Direct Sub-Reports: CBIO RQD Cockpit CBIO 12M Forecast CBIO Earnings & Move CBIO Dividends & DRIP CBIO Insiders & 13F CBIO Whale Options CBIO Profit Sankey CBIO News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 29/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

CBIO — Crescent Biopharma Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Crescent Biopharma Inc. (CBIO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 29/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $13.48 (-4.19% 1D, market capitalization $500.7M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (5/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of -13.86%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (3/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 6.36, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Crescent Biopharma Inc. (CBIO) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. The profile reports a market capitalization of $0.5B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Crescent Biopharma Inc. (CBIO) reported $10.8M in annual revenue (up from $112.1M in FY2024, -90.3% YoY) and $153.9K in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($110.0M revenue, $36.9K net income) through FY2025, CBIO scaled operating cash flow to -$71.5M and free cash flow to -$72.5M, backed by $240.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 29/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -13.86% and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 5/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $8.72 – $27.41 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (Health Care), CBIO carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can CBIO sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $10.8M and free cash flow of -$72.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is CBIO's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

CBIO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Crescent Biopharma Inc. (CBIO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CBIO Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CBIO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $13.48?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CBIO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CBIO:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $17.52 (+30.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Balance sheet is the strongest pillar, with an Altman Z-Score of 6.36 and cash of $213.2M reported for FY 2025.

Here is why I am bullish on CBIO here at $13.48: Balance sheet is the strongest pillar, with an Altman Z-Score of 6.36 and cash of $213.2M reported for FY 2025.. Compare CBIO's -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against the rest of Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $12.81 are getting bought.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@ShortSeller_Dan Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $10.51 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $13.48

Operating income of -$152.6M and FCF of -$72.5M in FY 2025 against $10.8M of revenue, with ROIC at -35%.

Careful chasing CBIO at $13.48. Operating income of -$152.6M and FCF of -$72.5M in FY 2025 against $10.8M of revenue, with ROIC at -35%.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is -60.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $10.51 on multiple compression.

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