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Stock Ratings / Health Care / CBIO
DMAC (43) OVID (40) GYRE (43) OCS (47) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Crescent Biopharma Inc. (CBIO) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$12.91 -4.23% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.79

Crescent Biopharma Inc. (CBIO) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 29/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $500.7M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CBIO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Crescent Biopharma Inc. (NASDAQ: CBIO) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $12.91 (-4.23% 1D, market cap $500.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, CBIO ranks #826 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CBIO compare to DMAC and OVID in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), CBIO carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, DMAC (DiaMedica Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $498.8M) and OVID (Ovid Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -28.5%, cap $496.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GYRE leads on earnings multiple (72.3x) while GYRE leads on capital efficiency (25.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CBIO?
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Per CBIO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001253689), Crescent Biopharma Inc. generated $10.8M in revenue (-90.3% YoY), $153.9K in net income, and -$72.5M in free cash flow against $240.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.79 (-0.95%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (29/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510029
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (5)Whales (5)SEC (13)Macro (3)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13% Base Target
$29 Bull$11 Base$9 Bear
📬 FREE CBIO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CBIO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (29/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CBIO SCORES 29/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (45% of score)

Altman Z-Score 6.36 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+5/20 pts (17% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
21
Grade E$12.91+1.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
24
Grade E$13.07+1.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
26
Grade E$13.27-2.7% Next Q
Current
29
Grade E$12.91-9.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (21) → E (29)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CBIO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CBIO currently carries a cautious 29/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($15.49) and Max Pain ($13.56) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $28.78.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CBIO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CBIO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 29%NO 71%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
46.530 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
6.36>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
3 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE22% OF RANGE
L: $9$12.91H: $27
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 5 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 8 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 16 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on CBIO

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (25)

-35.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -13.86% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 6.36 and Piotroski 3/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (18)

8/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 3/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like CBIO
  • ✓Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CBIO)

  • ✓Walkthrough of CBIO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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CBIO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -27.96%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $14.07H $14.07L $12.91C $12.91VOL 189.5K
RES: $22.21SUP: $11.28SMA50: $15.49SMA200: $15.89
$23.27$20.16$17.04$13.93$10.81RES $22.21SUP $11.28$12.912026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CBIO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CBIO Butterfly Map → + Track CBIO →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -90.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CBIO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CBIO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CBIO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CBIO)

Health Care Rank #826 of 1015 ⚔️ DMAC vs CBIO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (CBIO vs. DMAC, OVID, GYRE, OCS)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Crescent Biopharma Inc. (CBIO) ranks #826 by composite RQD confidence (29/100, grade E) and #442 by equity capitalization ($500.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GYRE leads on earnings valuation at 72.3x trailing P/E, while GYRE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 25.4% ROIC and 95.4% gross margin. OCS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 47/100 (D) compared with CBIO at 29/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CBIO ACTIVE
Crescent Biopharma Inc.
E 29/100 — — -35.0% -4.23% $500.7M Benchmark Subject
DMAC
DiaMedica Therapeutics Inc.
D- 43/100 — — -35.0% +0.43% $498.8M /dmac-vs-cbio →
OVID
Ovid Therapeutics Inc.
D- 40/100 — — -28.5% -5.91% $496.1M /ovid-vs-cbio →
GYRE
Gyre Therapeutics Inc.
D- 43/100 72.3x 95.4% 25.4% +3.84% $507.9M /gyre-vs-cbio →
OCS
Oculis Holding AG
D 47/100 — — — -6.66% $508.7M /ocs-vs-cbio →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001253689 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Crescent Biopharma Inc. (CBIO) reported GAAP revenue of $10.8M (-90.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $112.1M , and -90.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $153.9K, operating cash flow of -$71.5M, and free cash flow of -$72.5M (-132.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, CBIO closed FY2025 with $240.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.36, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $10.8M $153.9K -$71.5M -$72.5M $240.3M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $112.1M $37.9K -$31.1M -$31.1M $35.6M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $110.0M $36.9K -$34.9M -$34.9M — —

3. CBIO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CBIO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Crescent Biopharma Inc. (NASDAQ: CBIO) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $12.91 (-4.23% 1D, market cap $500.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, CBIO ranks #826 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CBIO compare to DMAC and OVID in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), CBIO carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, DMAC (DiaMedica Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $498.8M) and OVID (Ovid Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -28.5%, cap $496.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GYRE leads on earnings multiple (72.3x) while GYRE leads on capital efficiency (25.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CBIO?

Per CBIO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001253689), Crescent Biopharma Inc. generated $10.8M in revenue (-90.3% YoY), $153.9K in net income, and -$72.5M in free cash flow against $240.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CBIO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CBIO last traded at $12.91 (-4.23% on volume of 147,315 shares), positioning the stock -16.66% below its 50-day simple moving average ($15.49) and -18.75% below its 200-day simple moving average ($15.89). Across its 52-week range of $8.72 to $27.41, CBIO sits at the 22.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($11.30 to $14.52).

Direct Sub-Reports: CBIO RQD Cockpit CBIO 12M Forecast CBIO Earnings & Move CBIO Dividends & DRIP CBIO Insiders & 13F CBIO Whale Options CBIO Profit Sankey CBIO News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 29/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

CBIO — Crescent Biopharma Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Crescent Biopharma Inc. (CBIO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 29/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $12.91 (-4.23% 1D, market capitalization $500.7M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (5/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of -13.86%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (3/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 6.36, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Crescent Biopharma Inc. (CBIO) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. The profile reports a market capitalization of $0.5B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Crescent Biopharma Inc. (CBIO) reported $10.8M in annual revenue (up from $112.1M in FY2024, -90.3% YoY) and $153.9K in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($110.0M revenue, $36.9K net income) through FY2025, CBIO scaled operating cash flow to -$71.5M and free cash flow to -$72.5M, backed by $240.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 29/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -13.86% and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 5/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $8.72 – $27.41 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (Health Care), CBIO carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can CBIO sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $10.8M and free cash flow of -$72.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is CBIO's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

CBIO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Crescent Biopharma Inc. (CBIO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CBIO Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CBIO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $12.91?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CBIO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CBIO:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $17.52 (+30.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Balance sheet is the strongest pillar, with an Altman Z-Score of 6.36 and cash of $213.2M reported for FY 2025.

Here is why I am bullish on CBIO here at $13.48: Balance sheet is the strongest pillar, with an Altman Z-Score of 6.36 and cash of $213.2M reported for FY 2025.. Compare CBIO's -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against the rest of Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $12.81 are getting bought.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@ShortSeller_Dan Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $10.51 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $13.48

Operating income of -$152.6M and FCF of -$72.5M in FY 2025 against $10.8M of revenue, with ROIC at -35%.

Careful chasing CBIO at $13.48. Operating income of -$152.6M and FCF of -$72.5M in FY 2025 against $10.8M of revenue, with ROIC at -35%.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is -60.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $10.51 on multiple compression.

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