Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Per the Roarable RQD rating, CAKE scores 72 out of 100, a grade of B, with the verdict label "Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward." The score is built from five pillars. The fundamental cash engine scores 17 of 20, supported by an ROIC of 18.9% and a FCF yield of 2.76%. This is the strongest-supported pillar, suggesting the business earns solid returns on capital, though the modest FCF yield means the cash return to the investor at the current price is limited. Whale/13F flow scores 18 of 20, described as institutional accumulation and options positioning; this points to institutional interest as an upside driver, though the source data does not itemize the underlying holdings. Insider conviction scores 12 of 20, reflecting SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow; this is a mid-range reading and does not signal strong insider conviction in either direction. Macro regime fit scores 11 of 20, with a beta of 0.9 and a stated sector sensitivity; the below-market beta reduces market-linked volatility, but the sector sensitivity score caps the pillar. Forensic balance sheet scores 14 of 20, supported by an Altman Z-Score of 3.02, a Piotroski F-Score of 6 of 9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.29; these indicate a financially sound but leveraged posture. For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the upside drivers are the cash-engine returns and institutional accumulation. The valuation tradeoff is significant: a trailing P/E of 38 and forward P/E of 35.3 price in substantial expectations relative to the 2.76% FCF yield. This is an educational summary of the score, not personalized financial advice.

Per the market data, gross margin is 0%, operating margin is 5%, and net margin is 3.9%, with ROIC at 18.9%. Per the RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 3.02, the Piotroski F-Score is 6 of 9, and Debt/Equity is 1.29. Revenue rose from $3439.5M in FY 2023 to $3751.8M in FY 2025, while debt declined from $965.8M to $561.3M over the same span. Net income was $148.0M in FY 2025, below the $157.0M reported for FY 2024.

Per the recent news section, six items were recorded. Sources include TradingView, Yahoo Finance (two items), Seeking Alpha, and MarketBeat, with a marketscreener.com earnings flash. The earnings flash reports Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.02 per share against a FactSet estimate of $0.96, a positive surprise. A Seeking Alpha item carries a GREEN catalyst flag and an upgrade reference citing traffic activity. A Yahoo Finance item notes the stock has more than doubled this year. A Yahoo Finance item references a new 52-week high. The MarketBeat item cites a consensus price target of $90.33, which is below the current price of $113.12. Risk watch: the stock's gain relative to the consensus target indicates expectations may be stretched. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. The source data therefore does not establish upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or cross-sector dependencies. The only sector context available is Consumer Discretionary and Restaurants, with the RQD macro regime score noting sector sensitivity. A prospective investor should watch restaurant-sector demand conditions, though the source data does not quantify this linkage.

• What are the company's products, customer base, and revenue model? The profile does not describe its operations.
• What is the reported EPS for FY 2024 and FY 2025? The financials list EPS as N/A for all periods.
• What is the cash balance for FY 2023? It is listed as N/A.
• Which specific institutions and insiders drove the whale and insider pillar scores?
• What gross margin is reported, given the market data lists gross margin as 0%?