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Stock Ratings / Health Care / AXGN / forecast
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Axogen Inc. (AXGN) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$49.37 -0.52% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $49.23

Axogen Inc. (AXGN) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.95B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AXGN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AXGN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Axogen Inc. (NASDAQ: AXGN) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $49.37 (-0.52% 1D, market cap $2.95B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AXGN ranks #229 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AXGN compare to TMDX and ITGR in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus), AXGN carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 74.3%, and ROIC of -2.6%. By comparison, TMDX (TransMedics Group Inc.) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 18.1%, cap $2.29B) and ITGR (Integer Holdings Corporation) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 41.8x, ROIC 6.0%, cap $4.30B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TMDX leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while TMDX leads on capital efficiency (18.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AXGN?
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Per AXGN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000805928), Axogen Inc. generated $225.2M in revenue (+20.2% YoY), -$15.7M in net income, and -$2.9M in free cash flow against $221.7M in total assets and $48.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $49.23 (-0.28%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510053
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+
Cash (7)Whales (17)SEC (14)Macro (9)CEO (6)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.2% Base Target
$57 Bull$48 Base$38 Bear
📬 FREE AXGN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AXGN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AXGN SCORES 53/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (32% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±8.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 18.64 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 14 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
45
Grade D$35.14+3.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
48
Grade D$36.48+35% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
50
Grade C-$49.25+0.2% Next Q
Current
53
Grade D+$49.37-0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (45) → D+ (53)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AXGN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AXGN currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($42.84) and Max Pain ($51.84) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $56.95.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AXGN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AXGN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 53%NO 47%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your AXGN Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $49.37: 202.6 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $37.64
$7,624
$-2,376 (-23.8%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $48.26
$9,775
$-225 (-2.2%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $56.95
$11,535
+$1,535 (+15.4%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$5074%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$5469%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$4358%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AXGN)

  • ✓Walkthrough of AXGN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
AXGN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +15.81%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $49.63H $49.63L $49.37C $49.37VOL 1.84M
RES: $51.00SUP: $33.61SMA50: $42.84SMA200: $39.84
$54.80$46.99$39.18$31.37$23.56RES $51.00SUP $33.61$49.372026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AXGN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AXGN Butterfly Map → + Track AXGN →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
11.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +20.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AXGN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AXGN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AXGN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AXGN)

Health Care Rank #229 of 1016 ⚔️ TMDX vs AXGN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AXGN vs. TMDX, ITGR, LIVN, CNMD)

Industry: Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus (26 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Axogen Inc. (AXGN) ranks #229 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #208 by equity capitalization ($2.95B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TMDX leads on earnings valuation at 12.2x trailing P/E, while TMDX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.1% ROIC and 59.9% gross margin. ITGR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with AXGN at 53/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AXGN ACTIVE
Axogen Inc.
D+ 53/100 — 74.3% -2.6% -0.52% $2.95B Benchmark Subject
TMDX
TransMedics Group Inc.
C- 61/100 12.2x 59.9% 18.1% -1.68% $2.29B /tmdx-vs-axgn →
ITGR
Integer Holdings Corporation
C+ 67/100 41.8x 27.0% 6.0% +0.06% $4.30B /itgr-vs-axgn →
LIVN
LivaNova PLC
C+ 66/100 — 67.7% 17.3% -2.81% $4.35B /livn-vs-axgn →
CNMD
CONMED Corporation
C 62/100 28.9x 54.6% 7.8% -3.13% $1.32B /cnmd-vs-axgn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000805928

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Axogen Inc. (AXGN) reported GAAP revenue of $225.2M (+20.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $187.3M , and +41.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$15.7M, operating cash flow of $812.0K, and free cash flow of -$2.9M (-304.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, AXGN closed FY2025 with $221.7M in total assets against $48.4M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 18.64, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $225.2M -$15.7M $812.0K -$2.9M $221.7M $48.4M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $187.3M -$10.0M $4.5M $1.4M $203.7M $47.5M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $159.0M -$21.7M -$5.7M -$12.9M $1.63B $381.5M

3. AXGN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AXGN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Axogen Inc. (NASDAQ: AXGN) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $49.37 (-0.52% 1D, market cap $2.95B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AXGN ranks #229 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AXGN compare to TMDX and ITGR in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus), AXGN carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 74.3%, and ROIC of -2.6%. By comparison, TMDX (TransMedics Group Inc.) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 18.1%, cap $2.29B) and ITGR (Integer Holdings Corporation) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 41.8x, ROIC 6.0%, cap $4.30B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TMDX leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while TMDX leads on capital efficiency (18.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AXGN?

Per AXGN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000805928), Axogen Inc. generated $225.2M in revenue (+20.2% YoY), -$15.7M in net income, and -$2.9M in free cash flow against $221.7M in total assets and $48.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AXGN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AXGN last traded at $49.37 (-0.52% on volume of 1,835,218 shares), positioning the stock +15.24% above its 50-day simple moving average ($42.84) and +23.92% above its 200-day simple moving average ($39.84). Across its 52-week range of $22.92 to $52.91, AXGN sits at the 88.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 73.1 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.5% ($45.17 to $53.57).

AXGN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is AXGN's 12-month stock price target?

Axogen Inc. (AXGN) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $48.26 (-2.2% from $49.37), with a bull-case target of $56.95 and a bear-case floor of $37.64.

Is AXGN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates AXGN D+ (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 53/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: AXGN RQD Cockpit AXGN 12M Forecast AXGN Earnings & Move AXGN Dividends & DRIP AXGN Insiders & 13F AXGN Whale Options AXGN Profit Sankey AXGN News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 53/100 (D+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

AXGN — Axogen Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:24:26Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, AXGN scores 54 out of 100, earning a D+ and the verdict "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 7 / 20. This is the weakest pillar and reflects ROIC of -2.6% and an FCF yield of -0.1%. For an investor, this means the business is not currently generating returns on invested capital or free cash that would support the share price on cash-flow grounds.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 17 / 20. This is the strongest pillar, reflecting institutional accumulation and options positioning. It indicates professional money has been building exposure, which is a supportive signal even though the fundamentals do not yet match.
  • Insider Conviction: 6 / 20. This is a weak reading based on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. Insider signals do not offer strong confirmation of management conviction.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 10 / 20. With beta of 1.1 and sector sensitivity, the stock carries roughly market-level volatility, and the rating treats its macro fit as middling.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 14 / 20. Altman Z of 18.64, Piotroski F of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.38 point to a relatively sound balance sheet on the forensic measures.

Put together, the rating describes a company with a sound balance sheet and strong institutional interest, offset by weak profitability, negative cash returns, and weak insider signals. Potential upside drivers are the institutional accumulation and a balance sheet that does not appear to be the binding constraint. The valuation tradeoff is that the stock trades at a forward P/E of 18 against negative trailing EPS of -0.26, so the price depends on earnings improving from current levels. The rating's verdict suggests the current evidence favors trimming rather than adding.

Business

Axogen Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus industry. Per the company profile, the company's market capitalization is $3.0B. The source data does not describe its products, customers, or revenue model beyond sector and industry classification and reported revenue figures.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$225.2M$-7.8M$-15.7MN/A$-2.9M$35.5M$48.4M
FY 2024$187.3M$-3.3M$-10.0MN/A$1.4M$27.6M$47.5M
FY 2023$159.0M$-21.5M$-21.7MN/A$-12.9MN/A$381.5M

Per the SEC financials, revenue grew from $159.0M in FY 2023 to $225.2M in FY 2025, while the company remained loss-making at the operating and net levels in each period. Per the market data, gross margin is 74.3%, operating margin is -3.5%, and net margin is -7%, with ROIC at -2.6%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 18.64 and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.38. Reported debt fell from $381.5M in FY 2023 to $48.4M in FY 2025, and cash rose to $35.5M over the same period.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, the headlines cover a range of items:

  • Price action (YELLOW): A Yahoo Finance report headlined a 22.6% decline over four weeks, framing it as a buying opportunity.
  • Options and positioning (YELLOW): A Moomoo report covers the AXGN options chain.
  • Thesis coverage (YELLOW): A Seeking Alpha piece frames Axogen around nerve repair.
  • Relative performance (GREEN): A Yahoo Finance piece asks whether AXGN is outperforming other medical stocks this year.
  • Price target (GREEN): A TradingView report covers a 12-month price target raised to $54, implying 44% upside.
  • Earnings (YELLOW): A MarketScreener flash reports Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.21 per share versus a FactSet estimate of $0.13.

Per the butterfly supply-chain graph, no supply-chain links or proprietary signals are available. Risk watch items include the sharp four-week decline noted in the news feed and the gap between reported GAAP losses and the adjusted EPS cited in the earnings flash.

Open Questions

  • What drove the FY 2025 net loss of $-15.7M, and what is the path to positive operating income?
  • What is the source of the $381.5M FY 2023 debt balance and its reduction to $48.4M by FY 2025?
  • Why is trailing P/E unavailable while forward P/E is 18, and what earnings trajectory underlies that estimate?
  • What are the holder-level details behind the Whale 13F and insider pillar scores?
  • What products and customers generate the reported $225.2M in FY 2025 revenue?

AXGN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Axogen Inc. (AXGN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AXGN Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AXGN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $49.37?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AXGN 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AXGN:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $53.60 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is AXGN (D+ • RQD 54/100) a Buy at $49.63?

Welcome to the AXGN (Axogen Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 54/100 (Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim) in Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RE RedlineAuditor Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $38.22 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $49.63

Pump the brakes on AXGN — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on AXGN, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 74.3% gross margins. Unless Axogen Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

CA CashFlowKing Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $62.53 (+26.0%)
Spot @ $49.63

AXGN cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on AXGN, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $49.63 (52-wk range $21.93 - $52.91), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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