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Stock Ratings / Health Care / AXGN / earnings
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Axogen Inc. (AXGN) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±8.5% Move

$49.37 -0.52% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $49.23

Axogen Inc. (AXGN) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.95B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AXGN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Axogen Inc. (NASDAQ: AXGN) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $49.37 (-0.52% 1D, market cap $2.95B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, AXGN ranks #228 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AXGN compare to TMDX and ITGR in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus), AXGN carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 74.3%, and ROIC of -2.6%. By comparison, TMDX (TransMedics Group Inc.) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 18.1%, cap $2.29B) and ITGR (Integer Holdings Corporation) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 41.8x, ROIC 6.0%, cap $4.30B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TMDX leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while TMDX leads on capital efficiency (18.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AXGN?
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Per AXGN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000805928), Axogen Inc. generated $225.2M in revenue (+20.2% YoY), -$15.7M in net income, and -$2.9M in free cash flow against $221.7M in total assets and $48.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $49.23 (-0.28%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510053
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+
Cash (7)Whales (17)SEC (14)Macro (9)CEO (6)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.2% Base Target
$57 Bull$48 Base$38 Bear
📬 FREE AXGN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AXGN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AXGN SCORES 53/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (32% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±8.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 18.64 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 14 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
45
Grade D$35.14+3.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
48
Grade D$36.48+35% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
50
Grade C-$49.25+0.2% Next Q
Current
53
Grade D+$49.37-0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (45) → D+ (53)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AXGN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AXGN currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($42.84) and Max Pain ($51.84) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $56.95.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AXGN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AXGN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 53%NO 47%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±8.5% Swing Band

±$4.20 Expected Swing
$45.17 (-8.5%)Spot $49.37$53.57 (+8.5%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

AXGN Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 53/100

Trailing EPS: $-0.26 • YoY Revenue Growth: 20.2%

Model Bullish Setup (53/100)Model Risk Weight (47/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$225.2M-$15.7M-$2.9M74.3%
FY 20242024-12-31$187.3M-$10.0M$1.4M75.8%
FY 20232023-12-31$159.0M-$21.7M-$12.9M74.3%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AXGN)

  • ✓Walkthrough of AXGN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AXGN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +15.81%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $49.63H $49.63L $49.37C $49.37VOL 1.84M
RES: $51.00SUP: $33.61SMA50: $42.84SMA200: $39.84
$54.80$46.99$39.18$31.37$23.56RES $51.00SUP $33.61$49.372026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AXGN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AXGN Butterfly Map → + Track AXGN →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
11.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +20.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AXGN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AXGN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AXGN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AXGN)

Health Care Rank #228 of 1015 ⚔️ TMDX vs AXGN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AXGN vs. TMDX, ITGR, LIVN, CNMD)

Industry: Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus (26 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Axogen Inc. (AXGN) ranks #228 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #207 by equity capitalization ($2.95B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TMDX leads on earnings valuation at 12.2x trailing P/E, while TMDX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.1% ROIC and 59.9% gross margin. ITGR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with AXGN at 53/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AXGN ACTIVE
Axogen Inc.
D+ 53/100 — 74.3% -2.6% -0.52% $2.95B Benchmark Subject
TMDX
TransMedics Group Inc.
C- 61/100 12.2x 59.9% 18.1% -1.68% $2.29B /tmdx-vs-axgn →
ITGR
Integer Holdings Corporation
C+ 67/100 41.8x 27.0% 6.0% +0.06% $4.30B /itgr-vs-axgn →
LIVN
LivaNova PLC
C+ 66/100 — 67.7% 17.3% -2.81% $4.35B /livn-vs-axgn →
CNMD
CONMED Corporation
C 62/100 28.9x 54.6% 7.8% -3.13% $1.32B /cnmd-vs-axgn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000805928 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Axogen Inc. (AXGN) reported GAAP revenue of $225.2M (+20.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $187.3M , and +41.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$15.7M, operating cash flow of $812.0K, and free cash flow of -$2.9M (-304.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, AXGN closed FY2025 with $221.7M in total assets against $48.4M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 18.64, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $225.2M -$15.7M $812.0K -$2.9M $221.7M $48.4M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $187.3M -$10.0M $4.5M $1.4M $203.7M $47.5M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $159.0M -$21.7M -$5.7M -$12.9M $1.63B $381.5M

3. AXGN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AXGN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Axogen Inc. (NASDAQ: AXGN) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $49.37 (-0.52% 1D, market cap $2.95B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, AXGN ranks #228 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AXGN compare to TMDX and ITGR in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus), AXGN carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 74.3%, and ROIC of -2.6%. By comparison, TMDX (TransMedics Group Inc.) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 18.1%, cap $2.29B) and ITGR (Integer Holdings Corporation) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 41.8x, ROIC 6.0%, cap $4.30B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TMDX leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while TMDX leads on capital efficiency (18.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AXGN?

Per AXGN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000805928), Axogen Inc. generated $225.2M in revenue (+20.2% YoY), -$15.7M in net income, and -$2.9M in free cash flow against $221.7M in total assets and $48.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AXGN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AXGN last traded at $49.37 (-0.52% on volume of 1,835,218 shares), positioning the stock +15.24% above its 50-day simple moving average ($42.84) and +23.92% above its 200-day simple moving average ($39.84). Across its 52-week range of $21.93 to $52.91, AXGN sits at the 88.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 73.1 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.5% ($45.17 to $53.57).

Direct Sub-Reports: AXGN RQD Cockpit AXGN 12M Forecast AXGN Earnings & Move AXGN Dividends & DRIP AXGN Insiders & 13F AXGN Whale Options AXGN Profit Sankey AXGN News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 53/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AXGN — Axogen Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Axogen Inc. (AXGN) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 53/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $49.37 (-0.52% 1D, market capitalization $2.95B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (7/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -2.6%, gross margin of 74.3%, operating margin of -3.5%, and free cash flow yield of -0.10%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (17/20) + Insider Conviction (6/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.10x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 18.64, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.38x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Axogen Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus industry. The company's market capitalization is $3.0B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Axogen Inc. (AXGN) reported $225.2M in annual revenue (up from $187.3M in FY2024, +20.2% YoY) and -$15.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($159.0M revenue, -$21.7M net income) through FY2025, AXGN scaled operating cash flow to $812.0K and free cash flow to -$2.9M, backed by $221.7M in total assets against $48.4M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 53/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of -0.10% and institutional whale pillar of 17/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 7/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 17/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $21.93 – $52.91 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -3.5% operating margins and a 1.10x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus (Health Care), AXGN carries a macro regime beta of 1.10 and gross margin of 74.3%.

  • Key Question #1: Can AXGN sustain or expand its -3.5% operating margin and -2.6% ROIC against Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $225.2M and free cash flow of -$2.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $48.4M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is AXGN's 18.0x forward P/E multiple to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.10x)?

AXGN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Axogen Inc. (AXGN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AXGN Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AXGN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $49.37?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AXGN 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AXGN:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $63.69 (+29.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Institutional accumulation (17/20 whale flow pillar) and a forensic balance sheet (Altman Z 18.64, Piotroski F 6/9) provide support des

The street is overcomplicating Axogen Inc. (AXGN). Institutional accumulation (17/20 whale flow pillar) and a forensic balance sheet (Altman Z 18.64, Piotroski F 6/9) provide support despite weak fundamentals.. With an RQD score of 53/100 (D+) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 14/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $53.32.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Shorting a 17/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $49.37 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Health Care.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $37.03 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $49.37

Negative ROIC of -2.6%, negative FCF yield of -0.1%, and negative trailing EPS of -0.26 leave the fundamental cash engine scoring only

Careful chasing AXGN at $49.37. Negative ROIC of -2.6%, negative FCF yield of -0.1%, and negative trailing EPS of -0.26 leave the fundamental cash engine scoring only 7/20.. Gross margin is 74.3%, but operating margin is -3.5%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $37.03 on multiple compression.

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