ROARABLE
FREE $100K
Today Screener Big Ideas Track Record πŸ’° $100K Arena 🎲 Predictions πŸ›οΈ Insiders 8 Analysts
Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / ARLO / options
PRG (69) UPBD (70) CTOS (60) VVX (65) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Arlo Technologies Inc. (ARLO) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$14.13 -2.35% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.04

Arlo Technologies Inc. (ARLO) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C β€’ HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.56B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ARLO Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ARLO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Arlo Technologies Inc. (NYSE: ARLO) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $14.13 (-2.35% 1D, market cap $1.56B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ARLO ranks #268 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ARLO compare to PRG and UPBD in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
β–Ό

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Diversified Commercial Services), ARLO carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 106.3x, gross margin of 44.0%, and ROIC of 6.0%. By comparison, PRG (PROG Holdings Inc.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 8.9x, ROIC 37.3%, cap $1.36B) and UPBD (Upbound Group Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 16.0x, ROIC 30.7%, cap $1.21B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PRG leads on earnings multiple (8.9x) while PRG leads on capital efficiency (37.3% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARLO?
β–Ό

Per ARLO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001736946), Arlo Technologies Inc. generated $529.3M in revenue (+3.6% YoY), $14.9M in net income, and $78.7M in free cash flow against $310.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.04 (-0.61%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) β€’ 14.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 54.8% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH β€’ C
025507510063
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ Β· Rk B-
Cash (12)Whales (12)SEC (18)Macro (10)CEO (11)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.3% Base Target
$20 Bull$14 Base$11 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE ARLO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARLO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±11.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY ARLO SCORES 63/100 (C) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 5.60 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 7/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (19% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 14.9% FCF Margin ($78.7M FCF) & 44% Gross Margin

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (62.5) create a -10 pt regime headwind

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
55
Grade C$12.07+3.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
58
Grade C$12.52+4.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
60
Grade C$13.05+8.3% Next Q
Current
63
Grade C$14.13+0.9% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C (55) β†’ C (63)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ARLO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, ARLO faces multiple-compression risk if 106.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Priced at 106x earningsβ€”high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($13.02) or 200D SMA ($13.39) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($14.45) toward Bear Floor ($11.27).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARLOβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œARLO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±11.1%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (ARLO)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for ARLO.

Sponsored / Partner SpotlightACTIVE TRADER & PROP EVALUATION DESK

Practice in Our Weekly $100,000 Paper Arena Before Risking Personal Capital

Keep your personal nest egg in cash while trading NQ, ES, Crude, and Gold momentum using institutional prop-desk buying power.

FTC Disclosure: Roarable may receive partner referral compensation at no cost to you. Partner relationships never influence RQD scores.

πŸ† Enter Free $100K Paper Arena β†’
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating ARLO & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • βœ“Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on ARLO
  • βœ“How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) β†’$100K Arena
ARLO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -4.20%πŸ“ HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $14.75H $14.75L $14.13C $14.13VOL 2.16M
RES: $14.83SUP: $11.04SMA50: $13.02SMA200: $13.39
$17.26$15.73$14.20$12.67$11.15RES $14.83SUP $11.04$14.132026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ARLO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ ARLO Butterfly Map β†’ + Track ARLO β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARLO today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARLO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARLO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARLO)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #268 of 1011 βš”οΈ PRG vs ARLO Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ARLO vs. PRG, UPBD, CTOS, VVX)

Industry: Diversified Commercial Services (32 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Arlo Technologies Inc. (ARLO) ranks #268 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #450 by equity capitalization ($1.56B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PRG leads on earnings valuation at 8.9x trailing P/E, while PRG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 37.3% ROIC and β€” gross margin. UPBD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with ARLO at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ARLO ACTIVE
Arlo Technologies Inc.
C 63/100 106.3x 44.0% 6.0% -2.35% $1.56B Benchmark Subject
PRG
PROG Holdings Inc.
C+ 69/100 8.9x β€” 37.3% +9.90% $1.36B /prg-vs-arlo β†’
UPBD
Upbound Group Inc.
B- 70/100 16.0x 48.4% 30.7% +10.34% $1.21B /upbd-vs-arlo β†’
CTOS
Custom Truck One Source Inc.
C- 60/100 β€” 28.5% 4.1% +0.28% $2.41B /ctos-vs-arlo β†’
VVX
V2X Inc.
C 65/100 32.4x 8.3% 7.1% +3.52% $2.52B /vvx-vs-arlo β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001736946

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Arlo Technologies Inc. (ARLO) reported GAAP revenue of $529.3M (+3.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $510.9M , and +659.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $14.9M, operating cash flow of $78.7M, and free cash flow of $78.7M (+61.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARLO closed FY2025 with $310.5M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.60, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $529.3M $14.9M $78.7M $78.7M $310.5M β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $510.9M -$30.5M $51.3M $48.6M $298.4M β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $69.7M -$22.0M $38.3M $38.3M β€” β€”

3. ARLO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ARLO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Arlo Technologies Inc. (NYSE: ARLO) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $14.13 (-2.35% 1D, market cap $1.56B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ARLO ranks #268 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ARLO compare to PRG and UPBD in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Diversified Commercial Services), ARLO carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 106.3x, gross margin of 44.0%, and ROIC of 6.0%. By comparison, PRG (PROG Holdings Inc.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 8.9x, ROIC 37.3%, cap $1.36B) and UPBD (Upbound Group Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 16.0x, ROIC 30.7%, cap $1.21B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PRG leads on earnings multiple (8.9x) while PRG leads on capital efficiency (37.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARLO?

Per ARLO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001736946), Arlo Technologies Inc. generated $529.3M in revenue (+3.6% YoY), $14.9M in net income, and $78.7M in free cash flow against $310.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ARLO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARLO last traded at $14.13 (-2.35% on volume of 2,604,411 shares), positioning the stock +8.53% above its 50-day simple moving average ($13.02) and +5.53% above its 200-day simple moving average ($13.39). Across its 52-week range of $11.05 to $19.35, ARLO sits at the 37.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 62.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±11.1% ($12.56 to $15.70).

Direct Sub-Reports: ARLO RQD Cockpit ARLO 12M Forecast ARLO Earnings & Move ARLO Dividends & DRIP ARLO Insiders & 13F ARLO Whale Options ARLO Profit Sankey ARLO News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 63/100 (C) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ARLO β€” Arlo Technologies Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Arlo Technologies Inc. (ARLO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 63/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $14.13 (-2.35% 1D, market capitalization $1.56B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 6.0%, gross margin of 44.0%, operating margin of 1.1%, and free cash flow yield of 4.96%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (18/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 5.60, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Arlo Technologies Inc. (ARLO) is listed on the NYSE and is classified under the Consumer Discretionary sector and Diversified Commercial Services industry,. The profile describes the company as a Consumer Discretionary issuer with a market capitalization of $1.6B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Arlo Technologies Inc. (ARLO) reported $529.3M in annual revenue (up from $510.9M in FY2024, +3.6% YoY) and $14.9M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($69.7M revenue, -$22.0M net income) through FY2025, ARLO scaled operating cash flow to $78.7M and free cash flow to $78.7M, backed by $310.5M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (C β€’ RQD 63/100): Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Free cash flow yield of 4.96% and institutional whale pillar of 12/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $11.05 – $19.35 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 106.3x trailing P/E against 1.1% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks cannot be mapped from the source data. The only sector context available is the Consumer Discretionary classification and Diversified Commercial Services industry from the profile.

  • Key Question #1: Can ARLO sustain or expand its 1.1% operating margin and 6.0% ROIC against Diversified Commercial Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $529.3M and free cash flow of $78.7M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ARLO's 98.9x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ARLO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Arlo Technologies Inc. (ARLO) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to ARLO Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ARLO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $14.13?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ARLO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ARLO:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Fundamental Long-Only πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $18.67 (+29.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet scores 18/20 with Altman Z of 5.6 and FY 2025 operating income turning positive to $6.1M from a $34.9M loss in F

The street is overcomplicating Arlo Technologies Inc. (ARLO). Forensic balance sheet scores 18/20 with Altman Z of 5.6 and FY 2025 operating income turning positive to $6.1M from a $34.9M loss in FY 2024.. With an RQD score of 63/100 (C) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 18/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $15.63.

RetailWhale_TX πŸ‚ BULL

Both sides have a point here β€” ARLO's 18/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $12.44 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $14.47

P/E (TTM) of 106.3 against a 1.1% operating margin and macro regime fit scoring only 8/20 leaves the valuation resting on earnings not

Careful chasing ARLO at $14.47. P/E (TTM) of 106.3 against a 1.1% operating margin and macro regime fit scoring only 8/20 leaves the valuation resting on earnings not yet demonstrated.. Gross margin is 44.0%, but operating margin is 1.1%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $12.44 on multiple compression.

LIVE TAPE SPY $752.10 -1.80% QQQ $681.09 -3.60% DIA $519.34 -1.08% IWM $279.14 -1.68% NVDA $202.06 -1.26% AAPL $338.32 -1.83% MSFT $507.12 -2.83% TSLA $403.82 +1.00% PLTR $178.34 -3.13% SOFI $16.60 -0.95% IBIT $43.35 -5.42% GLD $361.65 -3.59%