Should I buy, hold, or sell ARLO stock right now?

Arlo Technologies Inc. (ARLO) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C (Hold — HOLD) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. Solid 44.0% gross margin (6% return on capital), mixed timing at 106x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is ARLO's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

ARLO's 12-month base price target is $14.45 (range $11.27 to $20.32), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / ARLO

PRG (69) UPBD (70) CTOS (60) VVX (65) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Arlo Technologies Inc. (ARLO) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$14.13 -2.35% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.04

Arlo Technologies Inc. (ARLO) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.56B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ARLO Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ARLO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Arlo Technologies Inc. (NYSE: ARLO) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $14.13 (-2.35% 1D, market cap $1.56B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ARLO ranks #266 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ARLO compare to PRG and UPBD in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Diversified Commercial Services), ARLO carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 106.3x, gross margin of 44.0%, and ROIC of 6.0%. By comparison, PRG (PROG Holdings Inc.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 8.9x, ROIC 37.3%, cap $1.36B) and UPBD (Upbound Group Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 16.0x, ROIC 30.7%, cap $1.21B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PRG leads on earnings multiple (8.9x) while PRG leads on capital efficiency (37.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARLO?

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Per ARLO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001736946), Arlo Technologies Inc. generated $529.3M in revenue (+3.6% YoY), $14.9M in net income, and $78.7M in free cash flow against $310.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.04 (-0.61%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 14.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARLO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ARLO SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 5.60 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (19% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 14.9% FCF Margin ($78.7M FCF) & 44% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (62.5) create a -10 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$12.07+3.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$12.52+4.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$13.05+8.3% Next Q

Current

Grade C$14.13+0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (55) → C (63)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ARLO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, ARLO faces multiple-compression risk if 106.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Priced at 106x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($13.02) or 200D SMA ($13.39) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($14.45) toward Bear Floor ($11.27).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARLO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ARLO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

62.530 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

5.60>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

7 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE37% OF RANGE

L: $11$14.13H: $19

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (44.0% gross margin), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 12 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 23 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: B-RQD 28 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on ARLO

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (60)

6.0% ROIC with 44.0% gross margin and 4.96% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BULLISH (90)

Altman-Z 5.60 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (55)

23/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ARLO

✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Priced at 106x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ARLO Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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ARLO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -4.20%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-03O $14.75H $14.75L $14.13C $14.13VOL 2.16M

RES: $14.83SUP: $11.04SMA50: $13.02SMA200: $13.39

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ARLO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ARLO Butterfly Map → + Track ARLO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARLO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARLO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARLO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARLO)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #266 of 1009 ⚔️ PRG vs ARLO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ARLO vs. PRG, UPBD, CTOS, VVX)

Industry: Diversified Commercial Services (32 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Arlo Technologies Inc. (ARLO) ranks #266 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #448 by equity capitalization ($1.56B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PRG leads on earnings valuation at 8.9x trailing P/E, while PRG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 37.3% ROIC and — gross margin. UPBD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with ARLO at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ARLO ACTIVE Arlo Technologies Inc.	C	63/100	106.3x	44.0%	6.0%	-2.35%	$1.56B	Benchmark Subject
PRG PROG Holdings Inc.	C+	69/100	8.9x	—	37.3%	+9.90%	$1.36B	/prg-vs-arlo →
UPBD Upbound Group Inc.	B-	70/100	16.0x	48.4%	30.7%	+10.34%	$1.21B	/upbd-vs-arlo →
CTOS Custom Truck One Source Inc.	C-	60/100	—	28.5%	4.1%	+0.28%	$2.41B	/ctos-vs-arlo →
VVX V2X Inc.	C	65/100	32.4x	8.3%	7.1%	+3.52%	$2.52B	/vvx-vs-arlo →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001736946 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Arlo Technologies Inc. (ARLO) reported GAAP revenue of $529.3M (+3.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $510.9M , and +659.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $14.9M, operating cash flow of $78.7M, and free cash flow of $78.7M (+61.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARLO closed FY2025 with $310.5M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.60, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$529.3M	$14.9M	$78.7M	$78.7M	$310.5M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$510.9M	-$30.5M	$51.3M	$48.6M	$298.4M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$69.7M	-$22.0M	$38.3M	$38.3M	—	—

3. ARLO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ARLO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ARLO compare to PRG and UPBD in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARLO?

Where is ARLO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARLO last traded at $14.13 (-2.35% on volume of 2,604,411 shares), positioning the stock +8.53% above its 50-day simple moving average ($13.02) and +5.53% above its 200-day simple moving average ($13.39). Across its 52-week range of $11.05 to $19.35, ARLO sits at the 37.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 62.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.1% ($12.56 to $15.70).

Direct Sub-Reports: ARLO RQD Cockpit ARLO 12M Forecast ARLO Earnings & Move ARLO Dividends & DRIP ARLO Insiders & 13F ARLO Whale Options ARLO Profit Sankey ARLO News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 63/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ARLO — Arlo Technologies Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Arlo Technologies Inc. (ARLO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 63/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $14.13 (-2.35% 1D, market capitalization $1.56B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 6.0%, gross margin of 44.0%, operating margin of 1.1%, and free cash flow yield of 4.96%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (11/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (18/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 5.60, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Arlo Technologies Inc. (ARLO) is listed on the NYSE and is classified under the Consumer Discretionary sector and Diversified Commercial Services industry,. The profile describes the company as a Consumer Discretionary issuer with a market capitalization of $1.6B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Arlo Technologies Inc. (ARLO) reported $529.3M in annual revenue (up from $510.9M in FY2024, +3.6% YoY) and $14.9M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($69.7M revenue, -$22.0M net income) through FY2025, ARLO scaled operating cash flow to $78.7M and free cash flow to $78.7M, backed by $310.5M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 63/100): Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Free cash flow yield of 4.96% and institutional whale pillar of 12/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $11.05 – $19.35 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 106.3x trailing P/E against 1.1% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks cannot be mapped from the source data. The only sector context available is the Consumer Discretionary classification and Diversified Commercial Services industry from the profile.

Key Question #1: Can ARLO sustain or expand its 1.1% operating margin and 6.0% ROIC against Diversified Commercial Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $529.3M and free cash flow of $78.7M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is ARLO's 98.9x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ARLO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Arlo Technologies Inc. (ARLO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ARLO Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 21h ago

Arlo Technologies, Inc. (ARLO) Stock Price, News, Quote & History

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Arlo Technologies Inc. (ARLO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Investing.com • 1d ago

Why is Arlo Technologies stock rallying today?

Investing.com report covering Arlo Technologies Inc. (ARLO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST TradingView • 1d ago

Arlo Technologies sets $100M stock buyback plan

TradingView report covering Arlo Technologies Inc. (ARLO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Arlo Technologies stock rises on $100M buyback program

Yahoo Finance report covering Arlo Technologies Inc. (ARLO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE The Globe and Mail • 1d ago

Arlo Technologies (ARLO) shares skyrocket, what you need to know

The Globe and Mail report covering Arlo Technologies Inc. (ARLO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Arlo Technologies, Inc. (ARLO) - What Are Analysts Thinking About This Stock?

MarketBeat report covering Arlo Technologies Inc. (ARLO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Arlo (ARLO) Stock Could Be Pricey Given Its Current Earnings

Simply Wall St report covering Arlo Technologies Inc. (ARLO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Benzinga • 1d ago

Apple Readies Smart Home Lineup, Resideo, Arlo Stocks Fall - Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)

Benzinga report covering Arlo Technologies Inc. (ARLO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ARLO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $14.13?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ARLO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $18.67 (+29.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet scores 18/20 with Altman Z of 5.6 and FY 2025 operating income turning positive to $6.1M from a $34.9M loss in F

The street is overcomplicating Arlo Technologies Inc. (ARLO). Forensic balance sheet scores 18/20 with Altman Z of 5.6 and FY 2025 operating income turning positive to $6.1M from a $34.9M loss in FY 2024.. With an RQD score of 63/100 (C) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 18/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $15.63.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — ARLO's 18/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $12.44 (-14.0%)

Spot @ $14.47

P/E (TTM) of 106.3 against a 1.1% operating margin and macro regime fit scoring only 8/20 leaves the valuation resting on earnings not

Careful chasing ARLO at $14.47. P/E (TTM) of 106.3 against a 1.1% operating margin and macro regime fit scoring only 8/20 leaves the valuation resting on earnings not yet demonstrated.. Gross margin is 44.0%, but operating margin is 1.1%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $12.44 on multiple compression.