What is APG's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for APG.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / APG / options

ROL (72) ALLE (79) AER (69) SUNB (76) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

APi Group Corporation (APG) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$45.30 +2.17% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $45.39

APi Group Corporation (APG) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $18.86B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on APG Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is APG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, APi Group Corporation (NYSE: APG) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $45.30 (+2.17% 1D, market cap $18.86B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, APG ranks #243 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does APG compare to ROL and ALLE in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Diversified Commercial Services), APG carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 64.4x, gross margin of 31.4%, and ROIC of 8.3%. By comparison, ROL (Rollins Inc.) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 31.5x, ROIC 28.5%, cap $16.57B) and ALLE (Allegion plc) posts a B+ grade (79/100 RQD, P/E 24.5x, ROIC 18.4%, cap $15.72B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AER leads on earnings multiple (6.6x) while ROL leads on capital efficiency (28.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for APG?

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Per APG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001796209), APi Group Corporation generated $7.91B in revenue (+12.7% YoY), $302.0M in net income, and $663.0M in free cash flow against $8.94B in total assets and $2.75B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $45.39 (+0.20%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 8.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for APG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY APG SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.43 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 8.4% FCF Margin ($663.0M FCF) & 31.4% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (67) create a -11 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$40.02+0.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$40.21+2.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$41.34+9.6% Next Q

Current

Grade C$45.30+1.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (56) → C (64)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the APG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 64/100 (C) score, APG faces multiple-compression risk if 64.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Priced at 64x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($39.86) or 200D SMA ($41.98) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($46.52) toward Bear Floor ($36.29).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $APG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “APG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 64%NO 36%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±7.1%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (APG)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for APG.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating APG & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on APG
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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APG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +1.41%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-03O $45.02H $45.30L $44.34C $45.30VOL 4.00M

RES: $45.70SUP: $33.15SMA50: $39.86SMA200: $41.98

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

APG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 APG Butterfly Map → + Track APG →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

43.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +12.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on APG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for APG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for APG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (APG)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #243 of 1011 ⚔️ ROL vs APG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (APG vs. ROL, ALLE, AER, SUNB)

Industry: Diversified Commercial Services (32 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, APi Group Corporation (APG) ranks #243 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #102 by equity capitalization ($18.86B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AER leads on earnings valuation at 6.6x trailing P/E, while ROL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 28.5% ROIC and — gross margin. ALLE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 79/100 (B+) compared with APG at 64/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
APG ACTIVE APi Group Corporation	C	64/100	64.4x	31.4%	8.3%	+2.17%	$18.86B	Benchmark Subject
ROL Rollins Inc.	B	72/100	31.5x	—	28.5%	+3.95%	$16.57B	/rol-vs-apg →
ALLE Allegion plc	B+	79/100	24.5x	45.2%	18.4%	+2.84%	$15.72B	/alle-vs-apg →
AER AerCap Holdings N.V.	C+	69/100	6.6x	—	9.2%	+3.04%	$24.48B	/aer-vs-apg →
SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc.	B+	76/100	—	96.0%	11.7%	+0.18%	$34.27B	/sunb-vs-apg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001796209

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), APi Group Corporation (APG) reported GAAP revenue of $7.91B (+12.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $7.02B , and +14.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $302.0M, operating cash flow of $759.0M, and free cash flow of $663.0M (+23.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, APG closed FY2025 with $8.94B in total assets against $2.75B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.43, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$7.91B	$302.0M	$759.0M	$663.0M	$8.94B	$2.75B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$7.02B	$250.0M	$620.0M	$536.0M	$8.15B	$2.75B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$6.93B	$153.0M	$514.0M	$202.2M	$10.70B	$2.50B

3. APG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is APG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does APG compare to ROL and ALLE in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for APG?

Where is APG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

APG last traded at $45.30 (+2.17% on volume of 2,889,572 shares), positioning the stock +13.65% above its 50-day simple moving average ($39.86) and +7.91% above its 200-day simple moving average ($41.98). Across its 52-week range of $34.87 to $49.99, APG sits at the 69.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 67.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.1% ($42.08 to $48.52).

Direct Sub-Reports: APG RQD Cockpit APG 12M Forecast APG Earnings & Move APG Dividends & DRIP APG Insiders & 13F APG Whale Options APG Profit Sankey APG News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 64/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

APG — APi Group Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

APi Group Corporation (APG) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 64/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $45.30 (+2.17% 1D, market capitalization $18.86B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 8.3%, gross margin of 31.4%, operating margin of 7.0%, and free cash flow yield of 3.41%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (14/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 1.06x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.43, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.81x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

APi Group Corporation (APG) is a NYSE-listed issuer...5B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), APi Group Corporation (APG) reported $7.91B in annual revenue (up from $7.02B in FY2024, +12.7% YoY) and $302.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($6.93B revenue, $153.0M net income) through FY2025, APG scaled operating cash flow to $759.0M and free cash flow to $663.0M, backed by $8.94B in total assets against $2.75B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 64/100): Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Free cash flow yield of 3.41% and institutional whale pillar of 14/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 14/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $34.87 – $49.99 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 64.4x trailing P/E and 33.5x EV/EBITDA against 7.0% operating margins and a 1.06x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Diversified Commercial Services (Consumer Discretionary), APG carries a macro regime beta of 1.06 and gross margin of 31.4%.

Key Question #1: Can APG sustain or expand its 7.0% operating margin and 8.3% ROIC against Diversified Commercial Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $7.91B and free cash flow of $663.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $2.75B in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is APG's 54.1x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.06x)?

APG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for APi Group Corporation (APG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to APG Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 16h ago

Why Janus Henderson Global Sustainable Equity Fund Added APi Group Corporation (APG) to Its Portfolio

Janus Henderson, an investment management company, released its “Global Sustainable Equity Fund ” Q3 2026 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. The Equity Fund returned 1.86% in the third quarter

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 2d ago

APi Group (APG) Stock Gets Fair Value Bump As Analysts Turn More Constructive

APi Group’s updated fair value estimate has shifted from US$53.20 to about US$54.73, which reflects a modest move in the modelled price target range. Recent analyst research has turned more constructive on APi Group, wit

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 2d ago

APG Q3 deep dive: recurring services and project backlog fuel revenue and margin outlook

Safety and specialty services provider APi (NYSE:APG) announced better-than-expected revenue in Q3 2026, with sales up 22.5% year on year to $2.55 billion. The company’s full-year revenue guidance of $9.23 billion at the

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 4d ago

What APi Group (APG) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call

APi Group (NYSE:APG) reported record third-quarter results, with revenue rising 22.5% year over year to $2.55 billion and organic revenue growth of 15.7%, as demand remained strong across inspection, service, monitoring

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 4d ago

APi Group Corporation Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary

Moby summary of APi Group Corporation's Q3 2026 earnings call

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 4d ago

APi Group (APG) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Record backlog exceeding $5 billion signals strong 2027 demand.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 4d ago

APi (NYSE:APG) surprises with strong Q3 2026, guides for strong full-year sales

Safety and specialty services provider APi (NYSE:APG) beat Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q3 2026, with revenue up 22.5% year on year to $2.55 billion. The company’s full-year revenue guidance of $9.23 billion at

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 5d ago

APi: Q3 Earnings Snapshot

(AP) — APi Group Corporation (APG) on Thursday reported third-quarter earnings of $114 million.On a per-share basis, the New Brighton, Minnesota-based company said it had net income of 24 cents.

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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

APG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $45.30?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON APG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $51.43 (+16.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

The forensic balance sheet scores 16 of 20 with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and Altman Z-Score of 3.43, indicating contained balance-she

Picked up a starter position in APG in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $44.34. The forensic balance sheet scores 16 of 20 with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and Altman Z-Score of 3.43, indicating contained balance-sheet risk.. Trading inside a $34.87–$49.99 52-week range with 3.41% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Diversified Commercial Services multiples expand this quarter.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@ForensicBear Shorting a 14/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $44.34 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $35.47 (-20.0%)

Spot @ $44.34

The stock carries a trailing P/E of 64.4 and EV/EBITDA of 33.5 while the macro regime fit pillar scores only 10 of 20 with beta of 1.06

Careful chasing APG at $44.34. The stock carries a trailing P/E of 64.4 and EV/EBITDA of 33.5 while the macro regime fit pillar scores only 10 of 20 with beta of 1.06.. Gross margin is 31.4%, but operating margin is 7.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $35.47 on multiple compression.