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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / APG
ROL (72) ALLE (79) AER (69) SUNB (76) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

APi Group Corporation (APG) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$45.30 +2.17% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $45.39

APi Group Corporation (APG) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $18.86B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on APG Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is APG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, APi Group Corporation (NYSE: APG) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $45.30 (+2.17% 1D, market cap $18.86B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, APG ranks #241 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does APG compare to ROL and ALLE in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Diversified Commercial Services), APG carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 64.4x, gross margin of 31.4%, and ROIC of 8.3%. By comparison, ROL (Rollins Inc.) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 31.5x, ROIC 28.5%, cap $16.57B) and ALLE (Allegion plc) posts a B+ grade (79/100 RQD, P/E 24.5x, ROIC 18.4%, cap $15.72B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AER leads on earnings multiple (6.6x) while ROL leads on capital efficiency (28.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for APG?
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Per APG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001796209), APi Group Corporation generated $7.91B in revenue (+12.7% YoY), $302.0M in net income, and $663.0M in free cash flow against $8.94B in total assets and $2.75B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $45.39 (+0.20%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 8.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510064
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C
Cash (14)Whales (14)SEC (16)Macro (9)CEO (11)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target
$55 Bull$47 Base$36 Bear
📬 FREE APG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for APG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY APG SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.43 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 8.4% FCF Margin ($663.0M FCF) & 31.4% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (67) create a -11 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
56
Grade C$40.02+0.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
59
Grade C$40.21+2.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
61
Grade C$41.34+9.6% Next Q
Current
64
Grade C$45.30+1.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (56) → C (64)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the APG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 64/100 (C) score, APG faces multiple-compression risk if 64.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Priced at 64x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($39.86) or 200D SMA ($41.98) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($46.52) toward Bear Floor ($36.29).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $APG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “APG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 64%NO 36%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM
6730 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.43>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
8 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE69% OF RANGE
L: $35$45.30H: $50
1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (31.4% gross margin), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: B-RQD 14 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on APG

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BULLISH (70)

8.3% ROIC with 31.4% gross margin and 3.41% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BULLISH (80)

Altman-Z 3.43 and Piotroski 8/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
NEUTRAL (57)

25/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 9/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like APG
  • ✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Priced at 64x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (APG Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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APG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +1.41%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $45.02H $45.30L $44.34C $45.30VOL 4.00M
RES: $45.70SUP: $33.15SMA50: $39.86SMA200: $41.98
$47.56$44.31$41.06$37.81$34.56RES $45.70SUP $33.15$45.302026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

APG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 APG Butterfly Map → + Track APG →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
43.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +12.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on APG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for APG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for APG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (APG)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #241 of 1009 ⚔️ ROL vs APG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (APG vs. ROL, ALLE, AER, SUNB)

Industry: Diversified Commercial Services (32 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, APi Group Corporation (APG) ranks #241 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #100 by equity capitalization ($18.86B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AER leads on earnings valuation at 6.6x trailing P/E, while ROL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 28.5% ROIC and — gross margin. ALLE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 79/100 (B+) compared with APG at 64/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
APG ACTIVE
APi Group Corporation
C 64/100 64.4x 31.4% 8.3% +2.17% $18.86B Benchmark Subject
ROL
Rollins Inc.
B 72/100 31.5x — 28.5% +3.95% $16.57B /rol-vs-apg →
ALLE
Allegion plc
B+ 79/100 24.5x 45.2% 18.4% +2.84% $15.72B /alle-vs-apg →
AER
AerCap Holdings N.V.
C+ 69/100 6.6x — 9.2% +3.04% $24.48B /aer-vs-apg →
SUNB
Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc.
B+ 76/100 — 96.0% 11.7% +0.18% $34.27B /sunb-vs-apg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001796209 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), APi Group Corporation (APG) reported GAAP revenue of $7.91B (+12.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $7.02B , and +14.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $302.0M, operating cash flow of $759.0M, and free cash flow of $663.0M (+23.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, APG closed FY2025 with $8.94B in total assets against $2.75B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.43, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $7.91B $302.0M $759.0M $663.0M $8.94B $2.75B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $7.02B $250.0M $620.0M $536.0M $8.15B $2.75B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $6.93B $153.0M $514.0M $202.2M $10.70B $2.50B

3. APG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is APG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, APi Group Corporation (NYSE: APG) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $45.30 (+2.17% 1D, market cap $18.86B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, APG ranks #241 in composite RQD confidence.

How does APG compare to ROL and ALLE in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Diversified Commercial Services), APG carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 64.4x, gross margin of 31.4%, and ROIC of 8.3%. By comparison, ROL (Rollins Inc.) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 31.5x, ROIC 28.5%, cap $16.57B) and ALLE (Allegion plc) posts a B+ grade (79/100 RQD, P/E 24.5x, ROIC 18.4%, cap $15.72B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AER leads on earnings multiple (6.6x) while ROL leads on capital efficiency (28.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for APG?

Per APG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001796209), APi Group Corporation generated $7.91B in revenue (+12.7% YoY), $302.0M in net income, and $663.0M in free cash flow against $8.94B in total assets and $2.75B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is APG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

APG last traded at $45.30 (+2.17% on volume of 2,889,572 shares), positioning the stock +13.65% above its 50-day simple moving average ($39.86) and +7.91% above its 200-day simple moving average ($41.98). Across its 52-week range of $34.87 to $49.99, APG sits at the 69.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 67.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.1% ($42.08 to $48.52).

Direct Sub-Reports: APG RQD Cockpit APG 12M Forecast APG Earnings & Move APG Dividends & DRIP APG Insiders & 13F APG Whale Options APG Profit Sankey APG News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 64/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

APG — APi Group Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

APi Group Corporation (APG) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 64/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $45.30 (+2.17% 1D, market capitalization $18.86B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 8.3%, gross margin of 31.4%, operating margin of 7.0%, and free cash flow yield of 3.41%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (14/20) + Insider Conviction (11/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 1.06x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.43, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.81x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

APi Group Corporation (APG) is a NYSE-listed issuer...5B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), APi Group Corporation (APG) reported $7.91B in annual revenue (up from $7.02B in FY2024, +12.7% YoY) and $302.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($6.93B revenue, $153.0M net income) through FY2025, APG scaled operating cash flow to $759.0M and free cash flow to $663.0M, backed by $8.94B in total assets against $2.75B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 64/100): Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Free cash flow yield of 3.41% and institutional whale pillar of 14/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 14/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $34.87 – $49.99 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 64.4x trailing P/E and 33.5x EV/EBITDA against 7.0% operating margins and a 1.06x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Diversified Commercial Services (Consumer Discretionary), APG carries a macro regime beta of 1.06 and gross margin of 31.4%.

  • Key Question #1: Can APG sustain or expand its 7.0% operating margin and 8.3% ROIC against Diversified Commercial Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $7.91B and free cash flow of $663.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $2.75B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is APG's 54.1x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.06x)?

APG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for APi Group Corporation (APG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to APG Debate Forum (3) ↓
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 5d ago
APi: Q3 Earnings Snapshot

(AP) — APi Group Corporation (APG) on Thursday reported third-quarter earnings of $114 million.On a per-share basis, the New Brighton, Minnesota-based company said it had net income of 24 cents.

Read Full Source ↗
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

APG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $45.30?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON APG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on APG:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $51.43 (+16.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The forensic balance sheet scores 16 of 20 with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and Altman Z-Score of 3.43, indicating contained balance-she

Picked up a starter position in APG in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $44.34. The forensic balance sheet scores 16 of 20 with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and Altman Z-Score of 3.43, indicating contained balance-sheet risk.. Trading inside a $34.87–$49.99 52-week range with 3.41% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Diversified Commercial Services multiples expand this quarter.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@ForensicBear Shorting a 14/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $44.34 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $35.47 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $44.34

The stock carries a trailing P/E of 64.4 and EV/EBITDA of 33.5 while the macro regime fit pillar scores only 10 of 20 with beta of 1.06

Careful chasing APG at $44.34. The stock carries a trailing P/E of 64.4 and EV/EBITDA of 33.5 while the macro regime fit pillar scores only 10 of 20 with beta of 1.06.. Gross margin is 31.4%, but operating margin is 7.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $35.47 on multiple compression.

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