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Why ABG Stock surged +4.36% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$206.67 +4.36% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $207.90

Asbury Automotive Group Inc (ABG) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.56B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ABG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Asbury Automotive Group Inc (NYSE: ABG) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $206.67 (+4.36% 1D, market cap $3.56B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ABG ranks #584 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ABG compare to GPI and OPLN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations), ABG carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.3x, gross margin of 17.1%, and ROIC of 14.0%. By comparison, GPI (Group 1 Automotive Inc.) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 9.5x, ROIC 21.0%, cap $3.12B) and OPLN (OPENLANE Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 26.6x, ROIC 9.5%, cap $4.76B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ABG leads on earnings multiple (7.3x) while GPI leads on capital efficiency (21.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ABG?
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Per ABG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001144980), Asbury Automotive Group Inc generated $18.00B in revenue (+4.7% YoY), $492.0M in net income, and -$34.8M in free cash flow against $11.62B in total assets and $2.72B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $207.89 (+0.59%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510048
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D-
Cash (12)Whales (11)SEC (12)Macro (3)CEO (10)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target
$272 Bull$197 Base$154 Bear
📬 FREE ABG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ABG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ABG SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 17.1% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.60 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (64.1) create a -16 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
40
Grade D$161.97+1.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
43
Grade D$164.05+18% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
45
Grade D$193.53+6.8% Next Q
Current
48
Grade D$206.67-5.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (40) → D (48)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ABG Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ABG currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($188.08) and Max Pain ($217.00) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $271.69.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ABG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ABG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why ABG Stock surged +4.36% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Asbury Automotive Group Inc (ABG) surged +4.36% to $206.67, trading at 47% of its 52-week range ($160.3 – $258.75). Stretched risk/reward at 7x P/E (14% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 47% of its 52-week range ($160.3 – $258.75) with RSI-14 at 64.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±8.7% around $206.67 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 17.1% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live ABG Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ABG)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ABG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ABG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.89%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $199.3H $206.7L $198.0C $206.7VOL 362.1K
RES: $207.1SUP: $155.0SMA50: $188.1SMA200: $203.2
$264.0$235.9$207.8$179.7$151.6RES $207.1SUP $155.0$206.72026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ABG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-7.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ABG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ABG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ABG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ABG)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #584 of 1009 ⚔️ GPI vs ABG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ABG vs. GPI, OPLN, RUSHA, AN)

Industry: Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations (20 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Asbury Automotive Group Inc (ABG) ranks #584 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #330 by equity capitalization ($3.56B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ABG leads on earnings valuation at 7.3x trailing P/E, while GPI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 21.0% ROIC and 16.0% gross margin. GPI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with ABG at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ABG ACTIVE
Asbury Automotive Group Inc
D 48/100 7.3x 17.1% 14.0% +4.36% $3.56B Benchmark Subject
GPI
Group 1 Automotive Inc.
C 65/100 9.5x 16.0% 21.0% +3.45% $3.12B /gpi-vs-abg →
OPLN
OPENLANE Inc.
C 63/100 26.6x — 9.5% +1.51% $4.76B /opln-vs-abg →
RUSHA
Rush Enterprises Inc. Cl A
C- 61/100 19.1x 20.7% 13.7% +3.47% $5.02B /rusha-vs-abg →
AN
AutoNation Inc.
D 44/100 8.6x 17.9% 18.9% +3.49% $5.94B /an-vs-abg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001144980 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Asbury Automotive Group Inc (ABG) reported GAAP revenue of $18.00B (+4.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $17.19B , and +21.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $492.0M, operating cash flow of $775.2M, and free cash flow of -$34.8M (+66.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, ABG closed FY2025 with $11.62B in total assets against $2.72B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.60, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $18.00B $492.0M $775.2M -$34.8M $11.62B $2.72B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $17.19B $430.3M $671.2M -$102.3M $10.34B $2.42B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $14.80B $602.5M $313.0M -$353.1M $17.76B $4.16B

3. ABG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ABG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Asbury Automotive Group Inc (NYSE: ABG) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $206.67 (+4.36% 1D, market cap $3.56B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ABG ranks #584 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ABG compare to GPI and OPLN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations), ABG carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.3x, gross margin of 17.1%, and ROIC of 14.0%. By comparison, GPI (Group 1 Automotive Inc.) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 9.5x, ROIC 21.0%, cap $3.12B) and OPLN (OPENLANE Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 26.6x, ROIC 9.5%, cap $4.76B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ABG leads on earnings multiple (7.3x) while GPI leads on capital efficiency (21.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ABG?

Per ABG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001144980), Asbury Automotive Group Inc generated $18.00B in revenue (+4.7% YoY), $492.0M in net income, and -$34.8M in free cash flow against $11.62B in total assets and $2.72B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ABG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ABG last traded at $206.67 (+4.36% on volume of 489,594 shares), positioning the stock +9.88% above its 50-day simple moving average ($188.08) and +1.71% above its 200-day simple moving average ($203.20). Across its 52-week range of $160.30 to $258.75, ABG sits at the 47.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 64.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.7% ($188.69 to $224.65).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 48/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ABG — Asbury Automotive Group Inc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Asbury Automotive Group Inc (ABG) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 48/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $206.67 (+4.36% 1D, market capitalization $3.56B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 14.0%, gross margin of 17.1%, operating margin of 4.8%, and free cash flow yield of -0.97%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (11/20) + Insider Conviction (10/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (3/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 1.16x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.60, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.60x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Asbury Automotive Group Inc (ABG) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, within the Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations industry. The source data identifies the company's sector and industry but does not describe its products, customer base, or revenue model in detail. — for specific product lines, customer segments, or the company's specific revenue mix. The reported gross margin of 17.1% and net margin of 2.7% are consistent with a retail-oriented business, but the source does not explicitly describe how it makes money.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Asbury Automotive Group Inc (ABG) reported $18.00B in annual revenue (up from $17.19B in FY2024, +4.7% YoY) and $492.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($14.80B revenue, $602.5M net income) through FY2025, ABG scaled operating cash flow to $775.2M and free cash flow to -$34.8M, backed by $11.62B in total assets against $2.72B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 48/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -0.97% and institutional whale pillar of 11/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 11/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $160.30 – $258.75 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 7.3x trailing P/E and 3.5x EV/EBITDA against 4.8% operating margins and a 1.16x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependency mapping is therefore — Sector correlation data is likewise — A prospective investor should watch for second-order effects from the consumer discretionary and auto-retail cycle, as the rating's macro-regime pillar (3/20, beta 1.

  • Key Question #1: Can ABG sustain or expand its 4.8% operating margin and 14.0% ROIC against Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $18.00B and free cash flow of -$34.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $2.72B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ABG's 6.8x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.16x)?

ABG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Asbury Automotive Group Inc (ABG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ABG Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ABG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $206.67?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ABG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ABG:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $257.44 (+30.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Valuation looks inexpensive at a 7.3 TTM P/E and 3.5 EV/EBITDA alongside a 14% ROIC.

Here is why I am bullish on ABG here at $198.03: Valuation looks inexpensive at a 7.3 TTM P/E and 3.5 EV/EBITDA alongside a 14% ROIC.. Compare ABG's 4.8% operating margin and 14.0% ROIC against the rest of Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $188.13 are getting bought.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@RiskArb_Desk Fair point on 7.3x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations. If gross margin (17.1%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $160.40 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $198.03

Negative free cash flow in all three reported periods and a Beta of 1.16 leave the macro-regime pillar at just 3 of 20.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short ABG above $198.03. Negative free cash flow in all three reported periods and a Beta of 1.16 leave the macro-regime pillar at just 3 of 20.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20) and FCF yield (-0.97%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $258.75.

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