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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / TCOM
GPN (69) CPAY (66) FISV (60) BR (77) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$40.99 +3.52% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $41.17

Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $24.93B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TCOM Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TCOM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ: TCOM) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $40.99 (+3.52% 1D, market cap $24.93B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TCOM ranks #406 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TCOM compare to GPN and CPAY in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Business Services), TCOM carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.1x, gross margin of 80.6%, and ROIC of 8.8%. By comparison, GPN (Global Payments Inc.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 16.2x, ROIC 5.1%, cap $25.63B) and CPAY (Corpay Inc.) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 24.4x, ROIC 23.2%, cap $26.33B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TCOM leads on earnings multiple (5.1x) while CPAY leads on capital efficiency (23.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TCOM?
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Per TCOM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001269238), Trip.com Group Limited generated $8.93B in revenue (+22.2% YoY), $4.76B in net income, and $1.95B in free cash flow against $38.24B in total assets and $1.63B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $41.17 (+0.44%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 21.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510056
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk C
Cash (5)Whales (8)SEC (13)Macro (13)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target
$83 Bull$41 Base$32 Bear
📬 FREE TCOM RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TCOM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TCOM SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (30% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.05 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 25.3% operating margin leave 15 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
48
Grade D$38.88+1.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
51
Grade C-$39.31-1.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
53
Grade C-$38.57+6.3% Next Q
Current
56
Grade D+$40.99-0.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (48) → D+ (56)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TCOM Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, TCOM faces multiple-compression risk if 5.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 78.1% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($40.06) or 200D SMA ($47.55) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($40.62) toward Bear Floor ($31.68).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TCOM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TCOM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
50.930 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDWATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)
2.05>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
8 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE8% OF RANGE
L: $38$40.99H: $79
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 5 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 26 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on TCOM

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (25)

8.8% ROIC with 80.6% gross margin and 8.01% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 2.05 and Piotroski 8/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
NEUTRAL (63)

25/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 13/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like TCOM
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TCOM)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TCOM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TCOM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.38%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $38.56H $40.99L $38.56C $40.99VOL 3.72M
RES: $44.56SUP: $37.46SMA50: $40.06SMA200: $47.55
$66.31$58.52$50.74$42.95$35.16RES $44.56SUP $37.46$40.992026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TCOM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TCOM Butterfly Map → + Track TCOM →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-13.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +22.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TCOM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TCOM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TCOM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TCOM)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #406 of 1009 ⚔️ GPN vs TCOM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (TCOM vs. GPN, CPAY, FISV, BR)

Industry: Business Services (88 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) ranks #406 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #81 by equity capitalization ($24.93B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TCOM leads on earnings valuation at 5.1x trailing P/E, while CPAY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 23.2% ROIC and — gross margin. BR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 77/100 (B+) compared with TCOM at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TCOM ACTIVE
Trip.com Group Limited
D+ 56/100 5.1x 80.6% 8.8% +3.52% $24.93B Benchmark Subject
GPN
Global Payments Inc.
C+ 69/100 16.2x 72.6% 5.1% +2.88% $25.63B /gpn-vs-tcom →
CPAY
Corpay Inc.
C+ 66/100 24.4x — 23.2% +2.08% $26.33B /cpay-vs-tcom →
FISV
Fiserv Inc.
C- 60/100 7.4x — 9.6% +3.82% $26.60B /fisv-vs-tcom →
BR
Broadridge Financial Solutions Inc.
B+ 77/100 24.0x 31.0% 18.1% +3.02% $20.19B /br-vs-tcom →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001269238 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) reported GAAP revenue of $8.93B (+22.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $7.30B , and +42.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $4.76B, operating cash flow of $2.06B, and free cash flow of $1.95B (-25.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, TCOM closed FY2025 with $38.24B in total assets against $1.63B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.05, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $8.93B $4.76B $2.06B $1.95B $38.24B $1.63B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $7.30B $2.34B $2.69B $2.61B $33.23B $2.76B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $6.27B $1.40B $3.10B $2.82B $13.35B $3.13B

3. TCOM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TCOM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ: TCOM) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $40.99 (+3.52% 1D, market cap $24.93B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TCOM ranks #406 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TCOM compare to GPN and CPAY in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Business Services), TCOM carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.1x, gross margin of 80.6%, and ROIC of 8.8%. By comparison, GPN (Global Payments Inc.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 16.2x, ROIC 5.1%, cap $25.63B) and CPAY (Corpay Inc.) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 24.4x, ROIC 23.2%, cap $26.33B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TCOM leads on earnings multiple (5.1x) while CPAY leads on capital efficiency (23.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TCOM?

Per TCOM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001269238), Trip.com Group Limited generated $8.93B in revenue (+22.2% YoY), $4.76B in net income, and $1.95B in free cash flow against $38.24B in total assets and $1.63B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TCOM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TCOM last traded at $40.99 (+3.52% on volume of 2,841,517 shares), positioning the stock +2.32% above its 50-day simple moving average ($40.06) and -13.80% below its 200-day simple moving average ($47.55). Across its 52-week range of $37.58 to $78.99, TCOM sits at the 8.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.2% ($39.68 to $42.30).

Direct Sub-Reports: TCOM RQD Cockpit TCOM 12M Forecast TCOM Earnings & Move TCOM Dividends & DRIP TCOM Insiders & 13F TCOM Whale Options TCOM Profit Sankey TCOM News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 56/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TCOM — Trip.com Group Limited: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 56/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $40.99 (+3.52% 1D, market capitalization $24.93B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (5/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 8.8%, gross margin of 80.6%, operating margin of 25.3%, and free cash flow yield of 8.01%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.11x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.05, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.07x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Trip.com Group Limited is a NASDAQ-listed company in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Business Services industry. — for detailed product lines, customer segments, or revenue model. The source data reports gross margin of 80.6% and operating margin of 25.3% (per market data), which indicate a high-margin operating model, but the source does not describe how the company earns its revenue.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) reported $8.93B in annual revenue (up from $7.30B in FY2024, +22.2% YoY) and $4.76B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($6.27B revenue, $1.40B net income) through FY2025, TCOM scaled operating cash flow to $2.06B and free cash flow to $1.95B, backed by $38.24B in total assets against $1.63B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 56/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 8.01% and institutional whale pillar of 8/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 5/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $37.58 – $78.99 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 5.1x trailing P/E and 8.6x EV/EBITDA against 25.3% operating margins and a 1.11x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks cannot be assessed from the source data.

  • Key Question #1: Can TCOM sustain or expand its 25.3% operating margin and 8.8% ROIC against Business Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $8.93B and free cash flow of $1.95B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.63B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TCOM's 4.3x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.11x)?

TCOM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TCOM Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TCOM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $40.99?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TCOM 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TCOM:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $47.11 (+19.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider Conviction scores 17 of 20 and the stock trades at a 4.3 Forward P/E, with Piotroski F 8/9 and Debt/Equity of 0.07 supporting t

Don't sleep on TCOM's setup in Consumer Discretionary. Insider Conviction scores 17 of 20 and the stock trades at a 4.3 Forward P/E, with Piotroski F 8/9 and Debt/Equity of 0.07 supporting the balance sheet.. Beta of 1.11 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (56/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@AlphaFlow_Cap Agree on the RQD 56/100 quality, though with 1.11 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $39.59 and keeping dry powder in case we test $36.82.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $31.28 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $39.59

The Fundamental Cash Engine scores only 5 of 20 with ROIC at 8.8%, Whale 13F Flow scores 5 of 20, and FCF fell from $2.82B to $1945.0

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on TCOM: The Fundamental Cash Engine scores only 5 of 20 with ROIC at 8.8%, Whale 13F Flow scores 5 of 20, and FCF fell from $2.82B to $1.95B over FY 2023–FY 2025.. At 5.1x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Business Services triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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