ROARABLE
FREE $100K
Today Screener Big Ideas Track Record 💰 $100K Arena 🎲 Predictions 🏛️ Insiders 8 Analysts
Stock Ratings / Consumer Staples / SMPL
BRBR (74) SENEB (53) SENEA (53) FLO (60) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$11.25 +5.54% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.34

The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $977.2M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on SMPL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SMPL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, The Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ: SMPL) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $11.25 (+5.54% 1D, market cap $977.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, SMPL ranks #35 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SMPL compare to BRBR and SENEB in the Consumer Staples sector?
▼

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), SMPL carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.9x, gross margin of 36.2%, and ROIC of 6.4%. By comparison, BRBR (BellRing Brands Inc.) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 4.9x, ROIC 46.3%, cap $1.07B) and SENEB (Seneca Foods Corp. (Class B)) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 9.4x, ROIC 16.1%, cap $1.08B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BRBR leads on earnings multiple (4.9x) while BRBR leads on capital efficiency (46.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SMPL?
▼

Per SMPL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-08-30, CIK 0001702744), The Simply Good Foods Company generated $1.45B in revenue (+9.0% YoY), $103.6M in net income, and $157.9M in free cash flow against $2.45B in total assets and $396.7M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.34 (+0.81%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 10.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510064
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C+
Cash (11)Whales (9)SEC (14)Macro (13)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target
$23 Bull$12 Base$9 Bear
📬 FREE SMPL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SMPL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SMPL SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.13 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
56
Grade C$10.55+4.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
59
Grade C$10.99-11.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
61
Grade C$9.75+15.4% Next Q
Current
64
Grade C$11.25+1.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (56) → C (64)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SMPL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 64/100 (C) score, SMPL faces multiple-compression risk if 8.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 33.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($10.42) or 200D SMA ($12.75) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($11.55) toward Bear Floor ($9.01).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SMPL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SMPL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Nov 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 64%NO 36%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM
57.430 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDWATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)
2.13>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
8 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE15% OF RANGE
L: $9$11.25H: $22
1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (36.2% gross margin), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 11 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: CRQD 26 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: C+RQD 27 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on SMPL

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
NEUTRAL (55)

6.4% ROIC with 36.2% gross margin and 17.05% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BULLISH (70)

Altman-Z 2.13 and Piotroski 8/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
NEUTRAL (65)

26/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 13/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like SMPL
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (SMPL Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
SMPL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.19%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $10.66H $11.25L $10.66C $11.25VOL 1.98M
RES: $11.24SUP: $9.04SMA50: $10.42SMA200: $12.75
$21.70$18.36$15.02$11.68$8.34RES $11.24SUP $9.04$11.252026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SMPL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SMPL Butterfly Map → + Track SMPL →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-3.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +9.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SMPL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SMPL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SMPL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SMPL)

Consumer Staples Rank #35 of 147 ⚔️ BRBR vs SMPL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (SMPL vs. BRBR, SENEB, SENEA, FLO)

Industry: Packaged Foods (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) ranks #35 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #77 by equity capitalization ($977.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BRBR leads on earnings valuation at 4.9x trailing P/E, while BRBR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 46.3% ROIC and 33.3% gross margin. BRBR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with SMPL at 64/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SMPL ACTIVE
The Simply Good Foods Company
C 64/100 8.9x 36.2% 6.4% +5.54% $977.2M Benchmark Subject
BRBR
BellRing Brands Inc.
B 74/100 4.9x 33.3% 46.3% +1.21% $1.07B /brbr-vs-smpl →
SENEB
Seneca Foods Corp. (Class B)
D+ 53/100 9.4x — 16.1% 0.00% $1.08B /seneb-vs-smpl →
SENEA
Seneca Foods Corp. (Class A)
D+ 53/100 9.4x — 16.1% +0.57% $1.08B /senea-vs-smpl →
FLO
Flowers Foods Inc.
C- 60/100 15.6x — 5.2% +1.46% $1.33B /flo-vs-smpl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-08-30 • CIK 0001702744 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-08-30), The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) reported GAAP revenue of $1.45B (+9.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.33B , and +16.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $103.6M, operating cash flow of $178.5M, and free cash flow of $157.9M (-24.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, SMPL closed FY2025 with $2.45B in total assets against $396.7M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.13, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-08-30 $1.45B $103.6M $178.5M $157.9M $2.45B $396.7M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-08-31 $1.33B $139.3M $215.7M $210.0M $2.43B $348.0M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-08-26 $1.24B $133.6M $171.1M $171.1M — —

3. SMPL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SMPL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, The Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ: SMPL) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $11.25 (+5.54% 1D, market cap $977.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, SMPL ranks #35 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SMPL compare to BRBR and SENEB in the Consumer Staples sector?

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), SMPL carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.9x, gross margin of 36.2%, and ROIC of 6.4%. By comparison, BRBR (BellRing Brands Inc.) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 4.9x, ROIC 46.3%, cap $1.07B) and SENEB (Seneca Foods Corp. (Class B)) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 9.4x, ROIC 16.1%, cap $1.08B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BRBR leads on earnings multiple (4.9x) while BRBR leads on capital efficiency (46.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SMPL?

Per SMPL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-08-30, CIK 0001702744), The Simply Good Foods Company generated $1.45B in revenue (+9.0% YoY), $103.6M in net income, and $157.9M in free cash flow against $2.45B in total assets and $396.7M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SMPL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SMPL last traded at $11.25 (+5.54% on volume of 1,983,794 shares), positioning the stock +7.97% above its 50-day simple moving average ($10.42) and -11.76% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.75). Across its 52-week range of $9.38 to $22.00, SMPL sits at the 14.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.8% ($10.03 to $12.47).

Direct Sub-Reports: SMPL RQD Cockpit SMPL 12M Forecast SMPL Earnings & Move SMPL Dividends & DRIP SMPL Insiders & 13F SMPL Whale Options SMPL Profit Sankey SMPL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 64/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

SMPL — The Simply Good Foods Company: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-08-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 64/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $11.25 (+5.54% 1D, market capitalization $977.2M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 6.4%, gross margin of 36.2%, operating margin of 10.8%, and free cash flow yield of 17.05%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (9/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.13, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.23x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

The Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ: SMPL) is classified in the Consumer Staples sector and the Packaged Foods industry. Per the market data, its gross margin is 36.2%, operating margin 10.8%, and net margin 7.1%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-08-30), The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) reported $1.45B in annual revenue (up from $1.33B in FY2024, +9.0% YoY) and $103.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.24B revenue, $133.6M net income) through FY2025, SMPL scaled operating cash flow to $178.5M and free cash flow to $157.9M, backed by $2.45B in total assets against $396.7M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 64/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 17.05% and institutional whale pillar of 9/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $9.38 – $22.00 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 8.9x trailing P/E and 6.5x EV/EBITDA against 10.8% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Sector correlations, upstream input dependencies, and 2nd-order bottlenecks are therefore — Investors seeking ripple analysis would need supply-chain disclosures not contained in this dataset.

  • Key Question #1: Can SMPL sustain or expand its 10.8% operating margin and 6.4% ROIC against Packaged Foods peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.45B and free cash flow of $157.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $396.7M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is SMPL's 8.3x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Staples capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

SMPL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SMPL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SMPL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $11.25?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SMPL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SMPL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $13.05 (+16.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Low valuation multiples (P/E TTM 8.9, EV/EBITDA 6.5) combined with a 17.05% FCF yield and an insider-conviction pillar score of 17 of 2

Picked up a starter position in SMPL in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $11.25. Low valuation multiples (P/E TTM 8.9, EV/EBITDA 6.5) combined with a 17.05% FCF yield and an insider-conviction pillar score of 17 of 20 suggest the market may be underpricing cash generation.. Trading inside a $9.38–$22.00 52-week range with 17.05% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Packaged Foods multiples expand this quarter.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@BreakoutHunter Agree on the RQD 64/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $11.25 and keeping dry powder in case we test $10.46.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.55 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $11.25

Operating income fell from $206.5M in FY 2024 to $156.9M in FY 2025, ROIC is only 6.4%, and the news wire flags escalating topline issu

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on SMPL: Operating income fell from $206.5M in FY 2024 to $156.9M in FY 2025, ROIC is only 6.4%, and the news wire flags escalating topline issues plus a securities class action.. At 8.9x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Packaged Foods triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

LIVE TAPE SPY $752.10 -1.80% QQQ $681.09 -3.60% DIA $519.34 -1.08% IWM $279.14 -1.68% NVDA $204.64 -4.22% AAPL $344.63 -1.23% MSFT $521.91 -1.55% TSLA $399.81 -0.86% PLTR $184.11 -6.27% SOFI $16.76 -4.83% IBIT $43.35 -5.42% GLD $361.65 -3.59%