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O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$90.70 +2.93% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $91.01

O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $71.29B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ORLY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: ORLY) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $90.70 (+2.93% 1D, market cap $71.29B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ORLY ranks #193 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ORLY compare to AZO and AAP in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto & Home Supply Stores), ORLY carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 28.1x, gross margin of 51.6%, and ROIC of 48.0%. By comparison, AZO (AutoZone Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 20.2x, ROIC 55.8%, cap $51.02B) and AAP (Advance Auto Parts Inc.) posts a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E 62.8x, ROIC -1.4%, cap $2.72B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AZO leads on earnings multiple (20.2x) while AZO leads on capital efficiency (55.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ORLY?
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Per ORLY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000898173), O'Reilly Automotive Inc. generated $17.78B in revenue (+6.4% YoY), $2.54B in net income, and $1.59B in free cash flow against $16.54B in total assets and $6.02B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (51.6% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $91.01 (+0.34%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510067
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B-
Cash (16)Whales (10)SEC (18)Macro (10)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4% Base Target
$111 Bull$94 Base$74 Bear
📬 FREE ORLY RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ORLY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ORLY SCORES 67/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 6.81 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 9% FCF Margin ($1.59B FCF) & 51.6% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (49.9) create a -10 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
59
Grade C$86.69+2.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
62
Grade C+$89.20+1.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
64
Grade C+$90.44+0.3% Next Q
Current
67
Grade C+$90.70+1.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (59) → C+ (67)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ORLY Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, ORLY faces multiple-compression risk if 28.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.1% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($87.08) or 200D SMA ($90.44) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($94.37) toward Bear Floor ($73.61).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ORLY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ORLY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 67%NO 33%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
49.930 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
6.81>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
8 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE41% OF RANGE
L: $83$90.70H: $102
1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (51.6% gross margin and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: B+RQD 16 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 23 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: B-RQD 28 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on ORLY

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BULLISH (80)

48.0% ROIC with 51.6% gross margin and 2.24% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BULLISH (90)

Altman-Z 6.81 and Piotroski 8/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
NEUTRAL (55)

23/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ORLY
  • ✓Strong cash generator (51.6% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
  • ✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ORLY Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ORLY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -3.49%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $88.07H $90.70L $88.07C $90.70VOL 10.39M
RES: $92.49SUP: $83.11SMA50: $87.08SMA200: $90.44
$98.77$94.38$90.00$85.61$81.23RES $92.49SUP $83.11$90.702026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ORLY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ORLY Butterfly Map → + Track ORLY →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
21.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ORLY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ORLY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ORLY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ORLY)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #193 of 1009 ⚔️ AZO vs ORLY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ORLY vs. AZO, AAP, HZO, ONEW)

Industry: Auto & Home Supply Stores (6 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) ranks #193 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #33 by equity capitalization ($71.29B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AZO leads on earnings valuation at 20.2x trailing P/E, while AZO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 55.8% ROIC and 52.6% gross margin. ORLY currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 67/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ORLY ACTIVE
O'Reilly Automotive Inc.
C+ 67/100 28.1x 51.6% 48.0% +2.93% $71.29B Benchmark Subject
AZO
AutoZone Inc.
C+ 67/100 20.2x 52.6% 55.8% +2.62% $51.02B /azo-vs-orly →
AAP
Advance Auto Parts Inc.
E 28/100 62.8x 43.4% -1.4% +6.23% $2.72B /aap-vs-orly →
HZO
MarineMax Inc. (FL)
D+ 52/100 — 32.5% 2.4% -0.11% $1.17B /hzo-vs-orly →
ONEW
OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A)
E 31/100 — 22.8% -11.2% +6.95% $160.7M /onew-vs-orly →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000898173 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) reported GAAP revenue of $17.78B (+6.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $16.71B , and +12.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $2.54B, operating cash flow of $2.76B, and free cash flow of $1.59B (-21.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, ORLY closed FY2025 with $16.54B in total assets against $6.02B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.81, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $17.78B $2.54B $2.76B $1.59B $16.54B $6.02B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $16.71B $2.39B $3.05B $2.03B $14.89B $5.52B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $15.81B $2.35B $3.03B $2.32B $39.18B $9.17B

3. ORLY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ORLY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: ORLY) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $90.70 (+2.93% 1D, market cap $71.29B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ORLY ranks #193 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ORLY compare to AZO and AAP in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto & Home Supply Stores), ORLY carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 28.1x, gross margin of 51.6%, and ROIC of 48.0%. By comparison, AZO (AutoZone Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 20.2x, ROIC 55.8%, cap $51.02B) and AAP (Advance Auto Parts Inc.) posts a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E 62.8x, ROIC -1.4%, cap $2.72B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AZO leads on earnings multiple (20.2x) while AZO leads on capital efficiency (55.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ORLY?

Per ORLY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000898173), O'Reilly Automotive Inc. generated $17.78B in revenue (+6.4% YoY), $2.54B in net income, and $1.59B in free cash flow against $16.54B in total assets and $6.02B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (51.6% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ORLY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ORLY last traded at $90.70 (+2.93% on volume of 8,118,181 shares), positioning the stock +4.16% above its 50-day simple moving average ($87.08) and +0.29% above its 200-day simple moving average ($90.44). Across its 52-week range of $82.59 to $102.46, ORLY sits at the 40.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.6% ($86.53 to $94.87).

Direct Sub-Reports: ORLY RQD Cockpit ORLY 12M Forecast ORLY Earnings & Move ORLY Dividends & DRIP ORLY Insiders & 13F ORLY Whale Options ORLY Profit Sankey ORLY News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 67/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ORLY — O'Reilly Automotive Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 67/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $90.70 (+2.93% 1D, market capitalization $71.29B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (16/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 48.0%, gross margin of 51.6%, operating margin of 19.5%, and free cash flow yield of 2.24%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (13/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (18/20): Incorporates a 0.92x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 6.81, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.85x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector and Auto & Home Supply Stores industry..

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) reported $17.78B in annual revenue (up from $16.71B in FY2024, +6.4% YoY) and $2.54B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($15.81B revenue, $2.35B net income) through FY2025, ORLY scaled operating cash flow to $2.76B and free cash flow to $1.59B, backed by $16.54B in total assets against $6.02B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 67/100): Strong cash generator (51.6% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 16/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $82.59 – $102.46 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 28.1x trailing P/E and 17.3x EV/EBITDA against 19.5% operating margins and a 0.92x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are — A prospective investor should note that the only sector-level reference available is the classification as Consumer Discretionary / Auto & Home Supply Stores, and the news headlines' comparison with peers AZO and GPC.

  • Key Question #1: Can ORLY sustain or expand its 19.5% operating margin and 48.0% ROIC against Auto & Home Supply Stores peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $17.78B and free cash flow of $1.59B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $6.02B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ORLY's 26.1x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.92x)?

ORLY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ORLY Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ORLY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $90.70?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ORLY 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ORLY:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $111.91 (+27.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

ORLY earns a 48% ROIC and an 18/20 forensic balance-sheet score (Altman Z 6.81, Piotroski F 8/9), with an RBC price-target raise on dem

ORLY earns a 48% ROIC and an 18/20 forensic balance-sheet score (Altman Z 6.81, Piotroski F 8/9), with an RBC price-target raise on demand flagged as a GREEN catalyst.. When you look under the hood at ORLY, Fundamental Cash Engine is 16/20 with 51.6% gross margins and 48.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (10/20) has been quietly accumulating below $102.46. My 12M target is $111.91.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@ShortSeller_Dan Fair point on 28.1x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Auto & Home Supply Stores. If gross margin (51.6%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $67.85 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $88.12

At P/E (TTM) of 28.1 against a 2.24% FCF yield, with FCF falling from $2.32B to $1.59B, the valuation leaves little margin for erro

At P/E (TTM) of 28.1 against a 2.24% FCF yield, with FCF falling from $2.32B to $1.59B, the valuation leaves little margin for error.. Look at the math on ORLY: paying 28.1x trailing P/E for 48.0% ROIC and 19.5% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Auto & Home Supply Stores demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $77.55 before getting long.

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