Should I buy, hold, or sell LI stock right now?

Li Auto Inc. (LI) currently earns a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell — SELL) with 17/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-2% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is LI's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

LI's 12-month base price target is $9.12 (range $7.11 to $22), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / LI

XPEV (51) STLA (53) OSK (66) NIO (17) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Li Auto Inc. (LI) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$11.18 +1.36% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.19

Li Auto Inc. (LI) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 17/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $10.78B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on LI Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is LI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Li Auto Inc. (NASDAQ: LI) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 17/100 at a spot price of $11.18 (+1.36% 1D, market cap $10.78B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, LI ranks #1003 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does LI compare to XPEV and STLA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto Manufacturing), LI carries a Roarable E (17/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 18.7%, and ROIC of -2.1%. By comparison, XPEV (XPeng Inc. American) holds a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $8.66B) and STLA (Stellantis N.V.) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $13.44B). Among the 5-stock peer group, OSK leads on earnings multiple (11.4x) while OSK leads on capital efficiency (14.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LI?

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Per LI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001791706), Li Auto Inc. generated $16.06B in revenue (-18.8% YoY), $0 in net income, and -$1.95B in free cash flow against $22.06B in total assets and $471.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.19 (+0.05%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (17/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-12.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-18.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for LI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (17/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY LI SCORES 17/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+6/20 pts (35% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 5% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 43 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+4/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 18.7% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$11.26+2.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$11.50-1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$11.39-1.8% Next Q

Current

Grade E$11.18-12.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (25) → E (17)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a LI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While LI currently carries a cautious 17/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($11.57) and Max Pain ($11.74) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $22.00.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $LI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “LI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 18%NO 82%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

4330 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)

1.78>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

2 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE5% OF RANGE

L: $11$11.18H: $21

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 2 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 7 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: ERQD 8 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on LI

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (15)

-2.1% ROIC with 18.7% gross margin and -17.95% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (18)

Altman-Z 1.78 and Piotroski 2/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (22)

7/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 6/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like LI

✓Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring LI)

✓Walkthrough of LI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

LI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -37.47%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-03O $11.14H $11.18L $11.03C $11.18VOL 1.88M

RES: $11.83SUP: $9.62SMA50: $11.57SMA200: $14.75

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

LI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 LI Butterfly Map → + Track LI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

25.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -18.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for LI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for LI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (LI)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #1003 of 1009 ⚔️ XPEV vs LI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (LI vs. XPEV, STLA, OSK, NIO)

Industry: Auto Manufacturing (28 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Li Auto Inc. (LI) ranks #1003 by composite RQD confidence (17/100, grade E) and #157 by equity capitalization ($10.78B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OSK leads on earnings valuation at 11.4x trailing P/E, while OSK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.4% ROIC and 17.5% gross margin. OSK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with LI at 17/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
LI ACTIVE Li Auto Inc.	E	17/100	—	18.7%	-2.1%	+1.36%	$10.78B	Benchmark Subject
XPEV XPeng Inc. American	D	51/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	+5.86%	$8.66B	/xpev-vs-li →
STLA Stellantis N.V.	D+	53/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	+1.72%	$13.44B	/stla-vs-li →
OSK Oshkosh Corporation (Holding Company)	C+	66/100	11.4x	17.5%	14.4%	+4.00%	$8.53B	/osk-vs-li →
NIO NIO Inc. American	E	17/100	—	13.6%	-35.0%	-0.62%	$8.04B	/nio-vs-li →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001791706 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Li Auto Inc. (LI) reported GAAP revenue of $16.06B (-18.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $19.79B , and -7.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of -$1.23B, and free cash flow of -$1.95B (-251.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, LI closed FY2025 with $22.06B in total assets against $471.8M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.78, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$16.06B	$0	-$1.23B	-$1.95B	$22.06B	$471.8M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$19.79B	$0	$2.18B	$1.29B	$22.24B	$1.12B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$17.44B	$0	$7.14B	$6.36B	$20.93B	$4.90B

3. LI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is LI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does LI compare to XPEV and STLA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LI?

Where is LI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

LI last traded at $11.18 (+1.36% on volume of 2,471,815 shares), positioning the stock -3.37% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.57) and -24.20% below its 200-day simple moving average ($14.75). Across its 52-week range of $10.66 to $20.95, LI sits at the 5.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.2% ($10.60 to $11.76).

Direct Sub-Reports: LI RQD Cockpit LI 12M Forecast LI Earnings & Move LI Dividends & DRIP LI Insiders & 13F LI Whale Options LI Profit Sankey LI News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 17/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

LI — Li Auto Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Li Auto Inc. (LI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 17/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $11.18 (+1.36% 1D, market capitalization $10.78B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (3/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -2.1%, gross margin of 18.7%, operating margin of -0.5%, and free cash flow yield of -17.95%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (3/20): Incorporates a 0.97x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.78, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.05x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Li Auto Inc. (LI) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Auto Manufacturing industry. Gross margin is reported at 18.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Li Auto Inc. (LI) reported $16.06B in annual revenue (up from $19.79B in FY2024, -18.8% YoY) and $0 in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($17.44B revenue, $0 net income) through FY2025, LI scaled operating cash flow to -$1.23B and free cash flow to -$1.95B, backed by $22.06B in total assets against $471.8M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 17/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -17.95% and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 3/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $10.66 – $20.95 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -0.5% operating margins and a 0.97x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Sector classification (Consumer Discretionary, Auto Manufacturing) is the only sector-level context provided.

Key Question #1: Can LI sustain or expand its -0.5% operating margin and -2.1% ROIC against Auto Manufacturing peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $16.06B and free cash flow of -$1.95B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $471.8M in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is LI's 33.0x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.97x)?

LI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Li Auto Inc. (LI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to LI Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 22h ago

Li Auto Inc. (2015.HK) Stock Price, News, Quote & History

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Li Auto Inc. (LI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Investing.com • 1d ago

Why is Li Auto stock surging today?

Investing.com report covering Li Auto Inc. (LI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE StockInvest.us • 1d ago

Li Auto Stock Price Forecast. Should You Buy LI?

StockInvest.us report covering Li Auto Inc. (LI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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Li Auto: Upside Catalyst If Deliveries Boom And Margins Rebound (NASDAQ:LI)

Seeking Alpha report covering Li Auto Inc. (LI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 1d ago

Li Auto Inc (LI) Stock Price, Quote, News & History

Benzinga report covering Li Auto Inc. (LI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 1d ago

Li Auto Inc. (LI) Stock Price, News, Quote & History

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Li Auto Inc. (LI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE ChartMill • 1d ago

LI News | LI AUTO INC - ADR (NASDAQ:LI)

ChartMill report covering Li Auto Inc. (LI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH TradingView • 1d ago

Here’s why Chinese EV stocks like Li Auto, XPeng, Polestar, and Nio are falling

TradingView report covering Li Auto Inc. (LI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

LI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $11.18?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON LI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $13.13 (+19.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Low debt-to-equity of 0.05 and a forward P/E of 33 suggest the balance sheet is not the binding constraint on a potential recovery.

Don't sleep on LI's setup in Consumer Discretionary. Low debt-to-equity of 0.05 and a forward P/E of 33 suggest the balance sheet is not the binding constraint on a potential recovery.. Beta of 0.97 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (17/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@SiliconVal_Bull Agree on the RQD 17/100 quality, though with 0.97 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $11.03 and keeping dry powder in case we test $10.26.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.38 (-24.0%)

Spot @ $11.03

Negative ROIC of -2.1%, FCF yield of -17.95%, and FY 2025 free cash flow of -$1.95B show the core cash engine is not currently fundin

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short LI above $11.03. Negative ROIC of -2.1%, FCF yield of -17.95%, and FY 2025 free cash flow of -$1.95B show the core cash engine is not currently funding the business.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (2/20) and FCF yield (-17.95%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $20.57.