Should I buy, hold, or sell GRBK stock right now?

Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell — SELL) with 56/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 8x P/E (19% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is GRBK's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

GRBK's 12-month base price target is $63.16 (range $49.26 to $87.34), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / GRBK

KBH (53) MHO (48) GEO (47) MTH (59) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$63.73 +4.72% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $64.15

Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.58B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on GRBK Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is GRBK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

▼

As of 2026-11-03, Green Brick Partners Inc. (NYSE: GRBK) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $63.73 (+4.72% 1D, market cap $2.58B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, GRBK ranks #416 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does GRBK compare to KBH and MHO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

▼

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Homebuilding), GRBK carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.7x, gross margin of 31.4%, and ROIC of 18.5%. By comparison, KBH (KB Home) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 6.8x, ROIC 11.0%, cap $2.91B) and MHO (M/I Homes Inc.) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 8.0x, ROIC 12.6%, cap $3.21B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KBH leads on earnings multiple (6.8x) while GRBK leads on capital efficiency (18.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GRBK?

▼

Per GRBK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001373670), Green Brick Partners Inc. generated $2.04B in revenue (-1.0% YoY), $343.5M in net income, and $208.4M in free cash flow against $2.53B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (31.4% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $64.15 (+0.66%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 10.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GRBK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY GRBK SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (30% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 10.2% FCF Margin ($208.4M FCF) & 31.4% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$61.71+0.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$61.99+3.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$64.08-0.5% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$63.73-0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (48) → D+ (56)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the GRBK Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, GRBK faces multiple-compression risk if 7.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 28.9% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($66.31) or 200D SMA ($69.38) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($63.16) toward Bear Floor ($49.26).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GRBK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “GRBK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

40.730 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

4 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE19% OF RANGE

L: $59$63.73H: $83

1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (31.4% gross margin and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: BRQD 15 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 20 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on GRBK

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (75)

18.5% ROIC with 31.4% gross margin and 7.86% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (47)

21/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 7/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like GRBK

✓Strong cash generator (31.4% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GRBK)

✓Walkthrough of GRBK's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

GRBK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.50%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-03O $62.53H $63.73L $60.86C $63.73VOL 404.4K

RES: $63.91SUP: $56.74SMA50: $66.31SMA200: $69.38

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GRBK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GRBK Butterfly Map → + Track GRBK →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

-6.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -1.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GRBK today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GRBK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GRBK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GRBK)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #416 of 1009 ⚔️ KBH vs GRBK Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (GRBK vs. KBH, MHO, GEO, MTH)

Industry: Homebuilding (31 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK) ranks #416 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #382 by equity capitalization ($2.58B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KBH leads on earnings valuation at 6.8x trailing P/E, while GRBK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.5% ROIC and 31.4% gross margin. MTH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with GRBK at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
GRBK ACTIVE Green Brick Partners Inc.	D+	56/100	7.7x	31.4%	18.5%	+4.72%	$2.58B	Benchmark Subject
KBH KB Home	D+	53/100	6.8x	—	11.0%	+5.67%	$2.91B	/kbh-vs-grbk →
MHO M/I Homes Inc.	D	48/100	8.0x	23.0%	12.6%	+3.49%	$3.21B	/mho-vs-grbk →
GEO Geo Group Inc	D	47/100	14.8x	—	6.6%	-2.21%	$3.75B	/geo-vs-grbk →
MTH Meritage Homes Corporation	C-	59/100	9.3x	—	8.0%	+7.04%	$4.20B	/mth-vs-grbk →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001373670 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK) reported GAAP revenue of $2.04B (-1.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.06B , and +16.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $343.5M, operating cash flow of $213.2M, and free cash flow of $208.4M (+867.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, GRBK closed FY2025 with $2.53B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$2.04B	$343.5M	$213.2M	$208.4M	$2.53B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$2.06B	$417.2M	$25.9M	$21.5M	$2.25B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.75B	$306.7M	$213.3M	$213.3M	—	—

3. GRBK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GRBK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does GRBK compare to KBH and MHO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GRBK?

Where is GRBK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GRBK last traded at $63.73 (+4.72% on volume of 468,977 shares), positioning the stock -3.89% below its 50-day simple moving average ($66.31) and -8.14% below its 200-day simple moving average ($69.38). Across its 52-week range of $59.12 to $83.18, GRBK sits at the 19.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.3% ($59.72 to $67.74).

Direct Sub-Reports: GRBK RQD Cockpit GRBK 12M Forecast GRBK Earnings & Move GRBK Dividends & DRIP GRBK Insiders & 13F GRBK Whale Options GRBK Profit Sankey GRBK News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 56/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

GRBK — Green Brick Partners Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 56/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $63.73 (+4.72% 1D, market capitalization $2.58B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 18.5%, gross margin of 31.4%, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 7.86%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Green Brick Partners Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Homebuilding industry.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK) reported $2.04B in annual revenue (up from $2.06B in FY2024, -1.0% YoY) and $343.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.75B revenue, $306.7M net income) through FY2025, GRBK scaled operating cash flow to $213.2M and free cash flow to $208.4M, backed by $2.53B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 56/100): Strong cash generator (31.4% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $59.12 – $83.18 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 7.7x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies are — Sector-level context is limited to the Homebuilding classification and the TradingView headline referencing rising costs and high inventory across the sector. A prospective investor should monitor whether those sector cost and inventory pressures flow through to margins, given the 0% operating margin reported in market data.

Key Question #1: Can GRBK sustain or expand its — operating margin and 18.5% ROIC against Homebuilding peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.04B and free cash flow of $208.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is GRBK's 7.2x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

GRBK Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to GRBK Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 22h ago

Green Brick Partners (GRBK) Stock May Trade At A Discount Despite Strong Q3 Results

Yahoo Finance report covering Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Moomoo • 1d ago

GREEN BRICK PARTNERS ($GRBK) Releases Q3 2026 Earnings

Moomoo report covering Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST GuruFocus • 1d ago

Green Brick Partners (GRBK) Tops Homebuilder Stocks Amid Housing Sector Challenges

GuruFocus report covering Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Green Brick Partners, Inc. 2026 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NYSE:GRBK) 2026-10-29

Seeking Alpha report covering Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Green Brick Partners: Q3 Earnings Snapshot

Yahoo Finance report covering Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST TradingView • 1d ago

Green Brick Partners tops homebuilder stocks as sector faces rising costs, high inventory

TradingView report covering Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST The Globe and Mail • 1d ago

Green Brick Partners Adds Co-CEO Jed Dolson to Board

The Globe and Mail report covering Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Benzinga • 1d ago

Green Brick Partners Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Benzinga report covering Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

GRBK Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $63.73?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON GRBK 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $77.90 (+28.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Cash generation and insider conviction are the strongest pillars, with ROIC at 18.5% and a 7.86% FCF yield against a 7.7 trailing P/E.

Picked up a starter position in GRBK in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $60.86. Cash generation and insider conviction are the strongest pillars, with ROIC at 18.5% and a 7.86% FCF yield against a 7.7 trailing P/E.. Trading inside a $59.12–$83.18 52-week range with 7.86% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Homebuilding multiples expand this quarter.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — GRBK's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $47.47 (-22.0%)

Spot @ $60.86

Weak institutional flow, modest macro fit, and a reported 0% operating margin leave limited cushion against a D+ RQD grade.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on GRBK: Weak institutional flow, modest macro fit, and a reported 0% operating margin leave limited cushion against a D+ RQD grade.. At 7.7x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Homebuilding triggers a 12-15% air pocket.