Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

GRBK scores 58 out of 100, a letter grade of D+, with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 15 of 20 (ROIC 18.5%; FCF yield 7.86%); Whale 13F Flow at 6 of 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction at 17 of 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit at 7 of 20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet at 13 of 20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 4/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). The strongest pillar is insider conviction, while institutional flow and macro fit are the weakest. For a prospective investor, the upside case rests on the cash-generation and insider-flow pillars, reflected in the stated ROIC and FCF yield. The valuation tradeoff is that the low trailing P/E (7.7) sits alongside a 0% operating margin in the source data, so earnings quality warrants scrutiny. The macro pillar's modest score indicates limited cushion if sector conditions weaken, given Beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity noted in the RQD rating. The overall grade signals that the rating model does not view fundamentals as strong enough to support a constructive stance.

Green Brick Partners Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Homebuilding industry. Revenue and income are reported in the SEC financials, but the revenue mix and specific monetization model are —

Per the market data, gross margin is 31.4%, operating margin is 0%, and net margin is 16.8%, with ROIC at 18.5%. Net income declined from $417.2M in FY 2024 to $343.5M in FY 2025 while revenue dipped modestly. Per the RQD forensic pillar, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5, the Piotroski F-Score is 4 of 9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. Free cash flow was $21.5M in FY 2024 and rose to $208.4M in FY 2025. Operating income is reported as — in every period, which is inconsistent with the stated operating margin in the data and should be reconciled.

• 🐂 Primary Bull Case: Cash generation and insider conviction are the strongest pillars, with ROIC at 18.5% and a 7.86% FCF yield against a 7.7 trailing P/E. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 (ROIC 18.5%, FCF yield 7.86%) and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $59.12 – $83.18 52-week range.
• 🐻 Primary Bear Case: Weak institutional flow, modest macro fit, and a reported 0% operating margin leave limited cushion against a D+ RQD grade. Investors must weigh 7.7x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

Upstream and downstream dependencies are — Sector-level context is limited to the Homebuilding classification and the TradingView headline referencing rising costs and high inventory across the sector. A prospective investor should monitor whether those sector cost and inventory pressures flow through to margins, given the 0% operating margin reported in market data.

• Key Question #1: What accounts for the 0% operating margin and — operating income when net margin is 16.8% and net income is $343.5M?
• Key Question #2: What are the EPS and debt figures for each reported period, given N/A and N/A entries across the financials?
• Key Question #3: What are the analyst consensus rating and price targets for GRBK?