Should I buy, hold, or sell AMBA stock right now?

Ambarella Inc. (AMBA) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 49/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-16% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is AMBA's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

AMBA's 12-month base price target is $59.17 (range $46.15 to $101.52), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Technology / AMBA

IPGP (29) PENG (58) OSIS (53) POWI (50) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Ambarella Inc. (AMBA) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$61.67 -2.30% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $61.30

Ambarella Inc. (AMBA) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 49/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.79B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AMBA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Ambarella Inc. (NASDAQ: AMBA) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $61.67 (-2.30% 1D, market cap $2.79B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 8/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, AMBA ranks #346 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AMBA compare to IPGP and PENG in the Technology sector?

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Within the Technology sector (Semiconductors), AMBA carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 59.2%, and ROIC of -16.1%. By comparison, IPGP (IPG Photonics Corporation) holds a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E 103.5x, ROIC 0.6%, cap $3.09B) and PENG (Penguin Solutions Inc.) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 139.5x, ROIC 12.4%, cap $3.13B). Among the 5-stock peer group, OSIS leads on earnings multiple (21.9x) while PENG leads on capital efficiency (12.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AMBA?

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Per AMBA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31, CIK 0001280263), Ambarella Inc. generated $390.7M in revenue (+37.2% YoY), -$75.9M in net income, and $73.5M in free cash flow against $798.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $61.30 (-0.60%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 18.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AMBA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (49/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AMBA SCORES 49/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (33% of score)

Altman Z-Score 8.31 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 18.8% FCF Margin ($73.5M FCF) & 59.2% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (44.5) create a -15 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$64.30-1.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$63.22+6.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$67.12-8.1% Next Q

Current

Grade D$61.67-5.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (57) → D (49)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AMBA Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AMBA currently carries a cautious 49/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($66.43) and Max Pain ($64.75) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $101.52.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AMBA• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AMBA Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 49%NO 51%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

44.530 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

8.31>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

7 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE28% OF RANGE

L: $48$61.67H: $97

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (59.2% gross margin), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: CRQD 13 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 15 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on AMBA

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (65)

-16.1% ROIC with 59.2% gross margin and 2.58% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BULLISH (80)

Altman-Z 8.31 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (33)

15/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 5/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like AMBA

✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AMBA)

✓Walkthrough of AMBA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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AMBA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -12.80%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-03O $64.58H $64.58L $61.67C $61.67VOL 3.28M

RES: $84.14SUP: $58.33SMA50: $66.43SMA200: $67.44

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AMBA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AMBA Butterfly Map → + Track AMBA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +37.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AMBA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AMBA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AMBA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AMBA)

Technology Rank #346 of 715 ⚔️ IPGP vs AMBA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (AMBA vs. IPGP, PENG, OSIS, POWI)

Industry: Semiconductors (95 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ambarella Inc. (AMBA) ranks #346 by composite RQD confidence (49/100, grade D) and #259 by equity capitalization ($2.79B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OSIS leads on earnings valuation at 21.9x trailing P/E, while PENG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.4% ROIC and 28.8% gross margin. PENG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 58/100 (D+) compared with AMBA at 49/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AMBA ACTIVE Ambarella Inc.	D	49/100	—	59.2%	-16.1%	-2.30%	$2.79B	Benchmark Subject
IPGP IPG Photonics Corporation	E	29/100	103.5x	38.0%	0.6%	+0.44%	$3.09B	/ipgp-vs-amba →
PENG Penguin Solutions Inc.	D+	58/100	139.5x	28.8%	12.4%	-8.53%	$3.13B	/peng-vs-amba →
OSIS OSI Systems Inc.	D+	53/100	21.9x	34.3%	11.4%	-0.27%	$3.14B	/osis-vs-amba →
POWI Power Integrations Inc.	D	50/100	124.0x	54.5%	1.3%	+2.26%	$2.45B	/powi-vs-amba →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-31 • CIK 0001280263 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31), Ambarella Inc. (AMBA) reported GAAP revenue of $390.7M (+37.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $284.9M , and +72.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$75.9M, operating cash flow of $73.5M, and free cash flow of $73.5M (+117.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, AMBA closed FY2025 with $798.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 8.31, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-01-31	$390.7M	-$75.9M	$73.5M	$73.5M	$798.6M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2025-01-31	$284.9M	-$117.1M	$33.8M	$33.8M	$689.0M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2024-01-31	$226.5M	-$169.4M	$19.0M	$19.0M	—	—

3. AMBA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AMBA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does AMBA compare to IPGP and PENG in the Technology sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AMBA?

Where is AMBA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AMBA last traded at $61.67 (-2.30% on volume of 1,204,680 shares), positioning the stock -7.17% below its 50-day simple moving average ($66.43) and -8.56% below its 200-day simple moving average ($67.44). Across its 52-week range of $48.30 to $96.69, AMBA sits at the 27.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.6% ($54.52 to $68.82).

Direct Sub-Reports: AMBA RQD Cockpit AMBA 12M Forecast AMBA Earnings & Move AMBA Dividends & DRIP AMBA Insiders & 13F AMBA Whale Options AMBA Profit Sankey AMBA News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 49/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AMBA — Ambarella Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2026-01-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Ambarella Inc. (AMBA) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 49/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $61.67 (-2.30% 1D, market capitalization $2.79B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -16.1%, gross margin of 59.2%, operating margin of -21.1%, and free cash flow yield of 2.58%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (8/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 8.31, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Ambarella Inc. (AMBA) is a NASDAQ-listed operating company in the Semiconductors industry (Technology sector) with an equity market capitalization of $2.79B. The business operates with a gross margin of 59.2%, an operating margin of -21.1%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of -16.1% (free cash flow yield of 2.58%). Within the Semiconductors peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-01-31), Ambarella Inc. (AMBA) reported $390.7M in annual revenue (up from $284.9M in FY2024, +37.2% YoY) and -$75.9M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($226.5M revenue, -$169.4M net income) through FY2025, AMBA scaled operating cash flow to $73.5M and free cash flow to $73.5M, backed by $798.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 49/100): Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Free cash flow yield of 2.58% and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $48.30 – $96.69 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -21.1% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The source data therefore does not establish upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or bottlenecks for AMBA. Investors should note that the only sector-level linkage in the source is the Nvidia speculation within the news feed, which is unconfirmed.

Key Question #1: Can AMBA sustain or expand its -21.1% operating margin and -16.1% ROIC against Semiconductors peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $390.7M and free cash flow of $73.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is AMBA's equity valuation to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

AMBA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Ambarella Inc. (AMBA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AMBA Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance UK • 22h ago

Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA) stock price, news, quote and history

Yahoo Finance UK report covering Ambarella Inc. (AMBA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Barchart.com • 1d ago

Nvidia Rumors Just Gave Ambarella Stock a Big Boost

Barchart.com report covering Ambarella Inc. (AMBA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE StockInvest.us • 1d ago

Ambarella Stock Price Forecast. Should You Buy AMBA?

StockInvest.us report covering Ambarella Inc. (AMBA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Ambarella: The Biggest AI Growth Opportunity Is Still Ahead (NASDAQ:AMBA)

Seeking Alpha report covering Ambarella Inc. (AMBA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Are Options Traders Betting on a Big Move in Ambarella Stock?

Yahoo Finance report covering Ambarella Inc. (AMBA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE GuruFocus • 1d ago

Ambarella (AMBA) Shares Rise 2.4% Amid Nvidia Acquisition Speculation

GuruFocus report covering Ambarella Inc. (AMBA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Barchart.com • 1d ago

How to Play Ambarella Stock as Qualcomm Eyes an Acquisition

Barchart.com report covering Ambarella Inc. (AMBA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Ambarella (NasdaqGS:AMBA) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions

Simply Wall St report covering Ambarella Inc. (AMBA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AMBA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $61.67?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AMBA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $73.22 (+16.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Revenue grew from $226.5M to $390.7M across FY 2023–FY 2025 while operating losses narrowed and FY 2025 free cash flow reached $73.5M,

Picked up a starter position in AMBA in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $63.12. Revenue grew from $226.5M to $390.7M across FY 2023–FY 2025 while operating losses narrowed and FY 2025 free cash flow reached $73.5M, supported by an Altman Z-Score of 8.31.. Trading inside a $48.30–$96.69 52-week range with 2.58% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Semiconductors multiples expand this quarter.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@ShortSeller_Dan Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Semiconductors. If gross margin (59.2%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $48.60 (-23.0%)

Spot @ $63.12

ROIC of -16.1%, a 2.58% FCF yield, and weak institutional, insider, and macro-fit pillars drive an RQD score of 50 and a Sell verdict.

Fading this rally in AMBA at $63.12. ROIC of -16.1%, a 2.58% FCF yield, and weak institutional, insider, and macro-fit pillars drive an RQD score of 50 and a Sell verdict.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $63.12 (52-wk range $48.30–$96.69), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.