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Stock Ratings / Technology / AMBA / options
POWI (53) UCTT (43) IPGP (31) OSIS (55) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Ambarella Inc. (AMBA) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$63.12 -2.26% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $62.74

Ambarella Inc. (AMBA) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) β†’
ROARABLE D β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $2.85B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AMBA Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AMBA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-02, Ambarella Inc. (NASDAQ: AMBA) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $63.12 (-2.26% 1D, market cap $2.85B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, AMBA ranks #356 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AMBA compare to POWI and UCTT in the Technology sector?
β–Ό

Within the Technology sector (Semiconductors), AMBA carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 59.2%, and ROIC of -16.1%. By comparison, POWI (Power Integrations Inc.) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 124.0x, ROIC 1.3%, cap $2.74B) and UCTT (Ultra Clean Holdings Inc.) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -9.8%, cap $2.62B). Among the 5-stock peer group, OSIS leads on earnings multiple (21.9x) while OSIS leads on capital efficiency (11.4% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AMBA?
β–Ό

Per AMBA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31, CIK 0001280263), Ambarella Inc. generated $390.7M in revenue (+37.2% YoY), -$75.9M in net income, and $73.5M in free cash flow against $798.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $62.74 (-0.60%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) β€’ 18.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 49.3% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D
025507510050
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D Β· Rk D+
Cash (13)Whales (8)SEC (16)Macro (5)CEO (8)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target
$102 Bull$61 Base$47 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE AMBA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AMBA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±11.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY AMBA SCORES 50/100 (D) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (32% of score)

Altman Z-Score 8.31 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 7/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 18.8% FCF Margin ($73.5M FCF) & 59.2% Gross Margin

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (47.4) create a -15 pt regime headwind

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
58
Grade C$64.81-3.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
55
Grade C$62.76+6.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
53
Grade C-$66.82-5.5% Next Q
Current
50
Grade D$63.12-1.4% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C (58) β†’ D (50)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AMBA Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While AMBA currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($66.57) and Max Pain ($66.28) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $101.52.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AMBAβ€’ $4.8M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œAMBA Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 50%NO 50%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±11.7%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (AMBA)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for AMBA.

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FTC Disclosure: Roarable may receive partner referral compensation at no cost to you. Partner relationships never influence RQD scores.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AMBA)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of AMBA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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AMBA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -10.75%β–Ό DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $66.27H $66.27L $63.12C $63.12VOL 1.03M
RES: $84.25SUP: $56.71SMA50: $66.57SMA200: $67.47
$99.07$87.85$76.64$65.42$54.21RES $84.25SUP $56.71$63.122026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AMBA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ AMBA Butterfly Map β†’ + Track AMBA β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +37.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AMBA today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AMBA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AMBA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AMBA)

Technology Rank #356 of 714 βš”οΈ POWI vs AMBA Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (AMBA vs. POWI, UCTT, IPGP, OSIS)

Industry: Semiconductors (95 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ambarella Inc. (AMBA) ranks #356 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #259 by equity capitalization ($2.85B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OSIS leads on earnings valuation at 21.9x trailing P/E, while OSIS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.4% ROIC and 34.3% gross margin. OSIS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 55/100 (D+) compared with AMBA at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AMBA ACTIVE
Ambarella Inc.
D 50/100 β€” 59.2% -16.1% -2.26% $2.85B Benchmark Subject
POWI
Power Integrations Inc.
D+ 53/100 124.0x 54.5% 1.3% -10.54% $2.74B /powi-vs-amba β†’
UCTT
Ultra Clean Holdings Inc.
D- 43/100 β€” 15.7% -9.8% -9.12% $2.62B /uctt-vs-amba β†’
IPGP
IPG Photonics Corporation
E 31/100 103.5x 38.0% 0.6% -4.11% $3.22B /ipgp-vs-amba β†’
OSIS
OSI Systems Inc.
D+ 55/100 21.9x 34.3% 11.4% -4.19% $3.27B /osis-vs-amba β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2026-01-31 β€’ CIK 0001280263

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31), Ambarella Inc. (AMBA) reported GAAP revenue of $390.7M (+37.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $284.9M , and +72.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$75.9M, operating cash flow of $73.5M, and free cash flow of $73.5M (+117.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, AMBA closed FY2025 with $798.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 8.31, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2026-01-31 $390.7M -$75.9M $73.5M $73.5M $798.6M β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2025-01-31 $284.9M -$117.1M $33.8M $33.8M $689.0M β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2024-01-31 $226.5M -$169.4M $19.0M $19.0M β€” β€”

3. AMBA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AMBA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Ambarella Inc. (NASDAQ: AMBA) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $63.12 (-2.26% 1D, market cap $2.85B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, AMBA ranks #356 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AMBA compare to POWI and UCTT in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Semiconductors), AMBA carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 59.2%, and ROIC of -16.1%. By comparison, POWI (Power Integrations Inc.) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 124.0x, ROIC 1.3%, cap $2.74B) and UCTT (Ultra Clean Holdings Inc.) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -9.8%, cap $2.62B). Among the 5-stock peer group, OSIS leads on earnings multiple (21.9x) while OSIS leads on capital efficiency (11.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AMBA?

Per AMBA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31, CIK 0001280263), Ambarella Inc. generated $390.7M in revenue (+37.2% YoY), -$75.9M in net income, and $73.5M in free cash flow against $798.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AMBA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AMBA last traded at $63.12 (-2.26% on volume of 3,275,866 shares), positioning the stock -5.18% below its 50-day simple moving average ($66.57) and -6.45% below its 200-day simple moving average ($67.47). Across its 52-week range of $48.30 to $96.69, AMBA sits at the 30.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±11.7% ($55.73 to $70.51).

AMBA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

What is AMBA's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for AMBA.

Direct Sub-Reports: AMBA RQD Cockpit AMBA 12M Forecast AMBA Earnings & Move AMBA Dividends & DRIP AMBA Insiders & 13F AMBA Whale Options AMBA Profit Sankey AMBA News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 50/100 (D) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

AMBA β€” Ambarella Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:24:44Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, AMBA carries an RQD Score of 50 out of 100, a letter grade of D, and the verdict "Roarable Sell β€” Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars break down as follows:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 13 / 20. The rating cites ROIC of -16.1% and an FCF yield of 2.58%. Reported free cash flow is positive in the SEC financials, but the return on invested capital is negative, indicating capital is not currently generating returns above its cost. For an investor, the positive cash generation is the main upside support, while the negative ROIC is the main valuation drag.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 8 / 20. The rating characterizes institutional accumulation and options positioning as weak. For a prospective investor, this suggests limited sponsorship from large institutional holders, which can reduce price support during periods of selling pressure.
  • Insider Conviction: 8 / 20. Per the rating, SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR flow is weak. Without strong insider buying conviction, investors lack an internal signal that management sees near-term value.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 5 / 20. The rating cites a beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity. A beta of 1.0 means the stock is expected to move in line with the broad market, and the low pillar score signals the current macro backdrop is not favorable for this profile.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 16 / 20. The rating cites an Altman Z-Score of 8.31, a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.5. This is the strongest pillar and indicates low near-term solvency risk, which partially offsets weakness elsewhere.

Taken together, the balance sheet provides a cushion, but the weak cash return, institutional, and insider signals, combined with a poor macro fit, produce a sell-leaning verdict. A prospective investor should weigh the strong solvency profile against the negative operating economics and the distribution warning.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$390.7M$-82.5M$-75.9MN/A$73.5M$191.0MN/A
FY 2024$284.9M$-126.6M$-117.1MN/A$33.8M$144.6MN/A
FY 2023$226.5M$-154.6M$-169.4MN/A$19.0MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue grew from $226.5M in FY 2023 to $390.7M in FY 2025, while operating losses narrowed from $-154.6M to $-82.5M over the same span. Per the market data, gross margin is 59.2%, operating margin is -21.1%, and net margin is -19.4%. ROIC is -16.1%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 8.31 and the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9, with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.5. Reported cash rose to $191.0M in FY 2025.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, six items are listed for AMBA. Two are tagged CATALYST or flagged as positive in the feed: a Seeking Alpha piece titled that the biggest AI growth opportunity is still ahead, which is tagged GREEN. Multiple items reference Nvidia, including a Barchart.com headline about Nvidia rumors providing a boost and a GuruFocus headline noting shares rose 2.4% amid Nvidia acquisition speculation. These are speculative market-wire items and the source data does not confirm any transaction. Other items include a Yahoo Finance report on options traders betting on a big move and a StockInvest.us forecast piece. Risk watch: the feed contains no confirmed fundamental disclosures, and the Nvidia references are rumor-based. Proprietary signals: per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no proprietary signals are recorded.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. The source data therefore does not establish upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or bottlenecks for AMBA. Investors should note that the only sector-level linkage in the source is the Nvidia speculation within the news feed, which is unconfirmed.

Open Questions

  • What are AMBA's product lines, customer concentration, and revenue drivers, given the source data provides only sector classification?
  • What is the status of the Nvidia acquisition speculation referenced in the news feed, and is any transaction confirmed?
  • What are the EPS, debt, and P/E figures, which the source marks as unavailable despite positive free cash flow?
  • What is the source of the cash and debt reconciliation, given FY 2023 cash and all debt figures are unavailable?
  • What is driving the negative ROIC despite revenue growth and narrowing operating losses?

AMBA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Ambarella Inc. (AMBA) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to AMBA Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AMBA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $63.12?

πŸ‚ 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AMBA 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AMBA:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk βš–οΈ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $69.75 (+8.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is AMBA (D β€’ RQD 50/100) a Buy at $64.58?

Welcome to the AMBA (Ambarella Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 50/100 (Roarable Sell β€” Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Semiconductors. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RI RiskArb_Desk Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $52.96 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $64.58

Pump the brakes on AMBA β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on AMBA, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 59.2% gross margins. Unless Ambarella Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

AL AlphaFlow_Cap Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $81.37 (+26.0%)
Spot @ $64.58

AMBA cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on AMBA, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Semiconductors and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $64.58 (52-wk range $48.30 - $96.69), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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