ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

VVV // Valvoline Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001674910 ↗
Materials • Major Chemicals
$34.37 ▲ +2.08 (+6.44%)
MKT CAP: $4.12B • VOL: 4.04M
VVV // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 45/100 [D] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
45 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF -6.6% vs NI -0.4% • ROIC-WACC +10.3% • Z 2.46
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 41% • VS 200D -6% • RSI 58.6
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF YIELD +0.9% • P/E 18.2x • F-SCORE 6/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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VVV // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +7.04%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $32.38H $34.37L $32.29C $34.37VOL 2.17M
RES: $47.57SUP: $24.23SMA50: $30.60SMA200: $34.35
$42.12$37.81$33.50$29.18$24.87RES $47.57SUP $24.23$34.372026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
VVV // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 53/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Valvoline Inc. (VVV) exhibits 38.5% gross margins and 16.5% return on invested capital within Materials (Major Chemicals), balanced against a 9.3x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 38.5% gross profitability converts into 22.8% operating margin and 16.5% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 16.5% // GM: 38.5%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +5.6% paired with 0.92% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +5.6% // FCF YLD: 0.92%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.46 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.46 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 19.6x trailing P/E (18.2x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 19.6x // EV/EBITDA: 9.3x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $34.37 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Major Chemicals require continuous execution to defend 12.3% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 12.3% // D/E: 5.31x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 18.2x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.98).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 19.6x
FORWARD P/E 18.2x
EV / EBITDA 9.3x
FCF YIELD 0.92%
GROSS MARGIN 38.5%
OPERATING MARGIN 22.8%
NET MARGIN 12.3%
ROIC % 16.5%
REV GROWTH YOY +5.6%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.65
DEBT / EQUITY 5.31x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 58.6
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.98
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // VVVPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $31.45
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>