ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

UPS // United Parcel Service Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001090727 ↗
Industrials • Trucking Freight/Courier Services
$108.25 ▲ +0.92 (+0.86%)
MKT CAP: $91.31B • VOL: 5.45M
UPS // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 75/100 [B] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B
RQD CONFIDENCE
75 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF -23.3% vs NI -3.6% • ROIC-WACC +16.9% • Z 3.57
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
18 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +5.2% • P/E 15.3x • F-SCORE 7/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

Why did UPS's Macro Regime Fit & Whale & Options Flow sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever UPS is Upgraded or Downgraded.

UPS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +12.40%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $105.6H $108.3L $105.6C $108.3VOL 4.42M
RES: $109.2SUP: $87.33SMA50: $99.40SMA200: $104.6
$120.3$112.5$104.7$96.93$89.14RES $109.2SUP $87.33$108.32026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
UPS // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 55/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 24.8% return on invested capital within Industrials (Trucking Freight/Courier Services), balanced against a 9.1x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 8.9% operating margin and 24.8% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 24.8% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -2.6% paired with 5.22% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -2.6% // FCF YLD: 5.22%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.57 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.57 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 16.4x trailing P/E (15.3x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 16.4x // EV/EBITDA: 9.1x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $108.25 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Trucking Freight/Courier Services require continuous execution to defend 6.3% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 6.3% // D/E: 0.91x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 15.3x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.12).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 16.4x
FORWARD P/E 15.3x
EV / EBITDA 9.1x
FCF YIELD 5.22%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 8.9%
NET MARGIN 6.3%
ROIC % 24.8%
REV GROWTH YOY -2.6%
DILUTED EPS TTM $6.55
DEBT / EQUITY 0.91x
DIVIDEND YIELD 5.91%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 70.8
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.12
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // UPSPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $99.05
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for UPS & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>