ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

TNL // Travel Leisure Co.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001361658 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Hotels/Resorts
$71.67 ▲ +0.18 (+0.25%)
MKT CAP: $4.31B • VOL: 1.15M
TNL // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 69/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
69 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF +36.6% vs NI -44% • ROIC-WACC +14.1% • Z 1.72
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
13 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 54% • VS 200D +1.6% • RSI 69.4
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
17 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +12.1% • P/E 17.4x • F-SCORE 8/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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TNL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +15.30%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $68.38H $71.67L $68.38C $71.67VOL 1.10M
RES: $71.78SUP: $56.85SMA50: $65.80SMA200: $70.37
$80.79$75.42$70.05$64.68$59.31RES $71.78SUP $56.85$71.672026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
TNL // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 56/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Travel Leisure Co. (TNL) exhibits 93.2% gross margins and 21.7% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Hotels/Resorts), balanced against a 11.2x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 93.2% gross profitability converts into 13.8% operating margin and 21.7% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 21.7% // GM: 93.2%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +4.1% paired with 12.14% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +4.1% // FCF YLD: 12.14%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.72 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.72 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 18.7x trailing P/E (17.4x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 18.7x // EV/EBITDA: 11.2x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $71.67 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Hotels/Resorts require continuous execution to defend 5.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 5.7% // D/E: 0.85x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 17.4x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.98).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 18.7x
FORWARD P/E 17.4x
EV / EBITDA 11.2x
FCF YIELD 12.14%
GROSS MARGIN 93.2%
OPERATING MARGIN 13.8%
NET MARGIN 5.7%
ROIC % 21.7%
REV GROWTH YOY +4.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM $3.82
DEBT / EQUITY 0.85x
DIVIDEND YIELD 3.46%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 69.4
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.98
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // TNLPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $65.58
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>