ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

TKR // Timken Company

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000098362 ↗
Industrials • Metal Fabrications
$110.90 ▼ -3.93 (-3.42%)
MKT CAP: $7.96B • VOL: 875.4K
TKR // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 58/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
58 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF +29% vs NI -18.2% • ROIC-WACC +0.6% • Z 3.31
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 57% • VS 200D -2.2% • RSI 50.4
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
14 / 20
SOLID
20 BASE - 6 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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TKR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +3.53%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $113.7H $114.8L $110.9C $110.9VOL 820.0K
RES: $115.2SUP: $106.2SMA50: $116.8SMA200: $117.4
$150.5$133.5$116.6$99.68$82.76RES $115.2SUP $106.2$110.92026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
TKR // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 45/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Timken Company (TKR) exhibits 30.4% gross margins and 9.1% return on invested capital within Industrials (Metal Fabrications), balanced against a 13.2x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 30.4% gross profitability converts into 11.8% operating margin and 9.1% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 9.1% // GM: 30.4%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +0.2% paired with 4.37% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +0.2% // FCF YLD: 4.37%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.31 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.31 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 27.6x trailing P/E (25.7x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 27.6x // EV/EBITDA: 13.2x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $110.90 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Metal Fabrications require continuous execution to defend 6.3% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 6.3% // D/E: 0.59x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 25.7x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.11).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 27.6x
FORWARD P/E 25.7x
EV / EBITDA 13.2x
FCF YIELD 4.37%
GROSS MARGIN 30.4%
OPERATING MARGIN 11.8%
NET MARGIN 6.3%
ROIC % 9.1%
REV GROWTH YOY +0.2%
DILUTED EPS TTM $4.16
DEBT / EQUITY 0.59x
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.24%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 50.4
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.11
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // TKRPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $101.48
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for TKR & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>