ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

TCOM // Trip.com Group Limited

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001269238 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Business Services
$39.59 ▲ +1.03 (+2.67%)
MKT CAP: $24.93B • VOL: 3.72M
TCOM // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 53/100 [D+] (+3 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
56 / 100 +3D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
8 / 20
WARNING
52W RANGE 5% • VS 200D -16.7% • RSI 50.9
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
17 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +8% • P/E 4.3x • F-SCORE 8/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
13 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=-0.01 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.24
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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TCOM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -25.03%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $38.56H $39.59L $38.56C $39.59VOL 3.72M
RES: $44.56SUP: $37.46SMA50: $40.06SMA200: $47.55
$66.31$58.52$50.74$42.95$35.16RES $44.56SUP $37.46$39.592026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
TCOM // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 56/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) exhibits 80.6% gross margins and 8.8% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Business Services), balanced against a 8.6x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 80.6% gross profitability converts into 25.3% operating margin and 8.8% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 8.8% // GM: 80.6%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +22.2% paired with 8.01% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +22.2% // FCF YLD: 8.01%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.05 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.05 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 5.1x trailing P/E (4.3x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 5.1x // EV/EBITDA: 8.6x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $39.59 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Business Services require continuous execution to defend 53.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 53.4% // D/E: 0.07x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 4.3x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.11).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 5.1x
FORWARD P/E 4.3x
EV / EBITDA 8.6x
FCF YIELD 8.01%
GROSS MARGIN 80.6%
OPERATING MARGIN 25.3%
NET MARGIN 53.4%
ROIC % 8.8%
REV GROWTH YOY +22.2%
DILUTED EPS TTM $7.56
DEBT / EQUITY 0.07x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.84%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 50.9
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.11
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // TCOMPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $36.23
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>