ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

SHOP // Shopify Inc. Class A Subordinate Voting Shares

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001594805 ↗
Technology • Computer Software: Prepackaged Software
$157.49 ▼ -9.40 (-5.63%)
MKT CAP: $216.26B • VOL: 10.54M
SHOP // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 71/100 [B-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B-
RQD CONFIDENCE
71 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Sound Institutional Accumulation
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
14 / 20
SOLID
FCF +25.7% vs NI -39% • ROIC-WACC -3.2% • Z 19.69
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
17 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 84% • VS 200D +28.4% • RSI 53.9
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
18 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 2 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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SHOP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +23.47%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $168.2H $168.2L $157.5C $157.5VOL 4.55M
RES: $189.7SUP: $138.1SMA50: $153.5SMA200: $130.0
$187.0$161.8$136.6$111.4$86.18RES $189.7SUP $138.1$157.52026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
SHOP // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 58/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Shopify Inc. Class A Subordinate Voting Shares (SHOP) exhibits 48.1% gross margins and 6.7% return on invested capital within Technology (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), balanced against a 95.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 48.1% gross profitability converts into 12.7% operating margin and 6.7% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 6.7% // GM: 48.1%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +30.1% paired with 0.93% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +30.1% // FCF YLD: 0.93%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 19.69 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 19.69 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: 95.0x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $157.49 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software require continuous execution to defend 10.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 10.7% // D/E: 0.23x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.22).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA 95.0x
FCF YIELD 0.93%
GROSS MARGIN 48.1%
OPERATING MARGIN 12.7%
NET MARGIN 10.7%
ROIC % 6.7%
REV GROWTH YOY +30.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY 0.23x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 53.9
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.22
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // SHOPPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $144.11
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for SHOP & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>